Why Qatar is emerging as Middle East peacemaker....

Blanford in CSM, here

"....Qatar is in the unusual position of having a foot in both camps. It remains a key ally of Washington, hosting the Al-Udeid Air Base, the largest US military facility in the region. It enjoys economic ties to Israel, and Israeli officials often participate in meetings and conferences in Doha. Yet Qatar also is Syria's closest Arab friend, investing millions of dollars in major property development projects and providing diplomatic support..."

West backs Lebanon government "capitulation" to Hezbollah ...

No, Mr. Shamir "Members of the Shi'ite organization will account for one-third of the government ministers, plus an additional portfolio"... that is not true. The Opposition as a whole (including Gen. Michel Aoun's, a Christian, bloc and others ....) will have 1/3+1 of the seats in the Council of Ministers! .........In Haaretz, here

"....One potential stumbling block over the final wording of the statement centers around the issue of whether to include references to prior Security Council resolutions passed in relation to Lebanon in recent years, including Resolution 1701, which brought an end to the Second Lebanon War.
Another Security Council resolution that is to be mulled is 1559, which includes a clause stipulating the decommissioning of weapons belonging to the various militia forces in the country. The U.S. and France insist on including mention of the resolution in the statement. Libya has stated its opposition, while Russia has also expressed reservations......"

Administration “violated” a law requiring notification to intel-committees when it took 8 months to inform the about alleged Syrian nuclear reactor..

CQ via War&Piece, here

“Just hours before a highly-orchestrated public roll-out of the previously classified intelligence, the president finally sent briefers to the committee,” the panel report states. “The delay was inexcusable and violated the National Security Act of 1947, which requires that the executive branch keep Congress ‘fully and currently informed’ of all intelligence activities..."

Is WINEP preparing Americans for an attack on IRAN?

WINEP's Clawson & Eisenstadt in an interview with Haaretz, here

(*) ...... Shihab missiles are not considered particularly reliable. Iran deploys them without having done hardly any significant tests. Second, the Shihab's guidance system is not very accurate....

(*).......no guarantee that Hezbollah will react automatically.....

(*)....... its reactions in the past to attacks against it, or its important interests, is mixed.......Not only did Iran not respond, but also the incident hastened its decision to agree to a cease-fire ...

(*)........what would be deemed a success? If the attack does destroy the nuclear facilities, and it leads to a broad consensus in Iran that nuclear weapons are dangerous........

Syria-Israel: No indication of joint work on a secret nuclear facility destroyed by Israel

In Secrecy News, here

"...but even in retrospect the available record presents no indication of joint work on a secret nuclear facility destroyed by Israel ..."

In other words, assuming the allegations of clandestine nuclear cooperation are true, open source intelligence provided no clues concerning the activity..."

WINEP: "Washington should reevaluate it support of the Lebanese government: Forget the Army for now!...

'Forget the Army' (he says in a 180 degrees reversal of his last essay: "With so much at stake, now is the time for Washington to use whatever leverage it might have to encourage the LAF to fulfill its national responsibility to protect Lebanese institutions"- May 9)..... and Schenker today, at WINEP, here

"....For Washington, these developments should prompt a reevaluation of how it supports the Lebanese government. Since 2005, the administration's strategy to strengthen Beirut has been primarily to support the LAF: from 2005 to 2008, .....more than $250 million in military assistance to the army..... However, during the crisis, the LAF did nothing to protect the government and national institutions because of the fear that intervention would cause the army to fragment along sectarian lines. Support for the LAF is a long-term project, but will do little in the short run to help U.S. allies in Beirut.

Given the stakes, it is imperative that Washington move beyond rhetoric and develop effective measures to support its pro-Western allies. Particularly important will be ways to enhance the electoral prospects of Siniora and his political allies in advance of the 2009 parliamentary vote. In the meantime, Washington should continue to work with the Lebanese government, avoiding contact with Hizballah ministers -- but working with lower level ministry officials -- as it did in 2005-2006..."

US must tolerate outreach to Hezbollah, Syria

ANNE GEARAN, AP Diplomatic Write, here and Laura Rosen's "Syriana (II): Newly Announced Israel-Syria Peace Talks Run Against Grain of Washington's Anti-Engagement Policy" in MoJo here

Israel-Syria peace deal could threaten Iran, Hezbollah

Paul Salem (as usual) has his apples and oranges a bit mixed .... it reminds me of that joke an 'influential' Arab ambassador in Washington told me about "consultants", the likes of our dear friend Paul ....and it reminds me of a meeting between A VERY influential head of a region's "Mukhabarat", with a former Agency guy, when the first coyly told the former Agency guy that "there are certain people (wink) in town who wants us to overly slip Tehran's way, a a bit too much for my taste." The Mukhabarati guy was sincere, but the Agency guy read a bit too much into it, as a storm was packing force. These were the good old days between that apparatus & the Agency, when for no sound reasons, the Washington nomenklatura decided to 'terminate' that relationship and go into an anomalous crescendo................. anyhow, the story, in McClatchy's, here

".....Salem, who recently spent time in Damascus talking to negotiators involved in the talks, said there is a growing unease among some Syrian leaders about the influence of Iran in the Middle East.

"Peace between Syria and Israel would cause a serious rupture in the Syrian-Iranian relationship as it would represent a fundamental parting of the ways," said Salem."

In a 'shift', US Delays Report on Iran Arms....

In the Wall Street Journal, here, via War&Piece.

The military had initially planned to publicize the report several weeks ago but instead turned the dossier over to the Iraqi government .....(Talbani "dismisses" US allegations, here)

"The timing of the brief...on Iranian interference has yet to be nailed down, but we anticipate briefing sometime in the future," said Rear Adm. Patrick Driscoll. Adm. Driscoll said there were "lots of reasons" for the delay but declined further comment.......

Another military official said in an interview that the report could be delayed significantly, noting that it was "in the hands of the [Iraqi central government]."

An agreement stops the fighting in Lebanon but boosts the Opposition & Hizbullah

In the ECONOMIST, here

“Today we have no victor, no vanquished, but one winner, which is Lebanon,” declared Marwan Hammadeh, a cabinet minister loyal to the pro-Western majority coalition in parliament known as “March 14th”, which embraces the dominant Sunni and Druze parties as well as liberals and right-wing Christians. Yet it appeared that most of the gains had been made by the opposition, an alliance led by Hizbullah, the Shia party-cum-militia, but also including a powerful Christian party and pro-Syrian leftists. This reflects changed realities on the ground, following the swift but brief take-over on May 9th of loyalist districts in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, by opposition gunmen. It was this dramatic event that had prompted urgent intervention by Arab foreign ministers...."

... and the LOSERS are?

Syria and Israel: tactical advantage

Jon Alterman (CSIS) writes this for MESH, here

"....While each side has powerful reasons to negotiate, however, there are equally powerful reasons not to conclude a deal. Such reasons start with the political weakness of each leader, who would be hard pressed to make monumental concessions to a longstanding enemy whose ultimate intentions are disputed. The Bush Administration’s keen disinterest in engaging Syria also dims hopes, as one of the prizes the Syrians seek is U.S. acceptance. A year from now, with a new U.S. president and likely a new Israeli Prime Minister, the situation might be different, and in the interim, there are certainly common understandings that can be reached..."

....Israel-Syria confirm peace talks

In the BBC here

Laura Rosen adds, "Two former Israeli foreign ministry officials explained the logic of such talks to me. "It’s a fair question, and other former Israeli officials are pressing further, arguing that Israel should pursue peace with Syria, its last bordering state with which it does not have a peace agreement. Among officials urging Washington to back diplomacy with Syria are former Israeli foreign ministry and intelligence official David Kimche and former Israeli foreign ministry director-general Alon Liel, who had been pursuing a track-two dialogue mediated by Turkey until Washington pressured the Israeli government to cut off the channel. 'One of the reasons that I believe we should explore the possibility of speaking with Syria on an official level is that this body needs oxygen,' Liel told me in February in Washington. 'We need a real process, and the Syrians are open to do it.'”

Lebanese Agree ...

Al Jazeera/English, here ......Our take: Bahij Tabbarah for Premiership? Aoun: Abou Jamra, Pakradounian, Skaff, Arslan & Bassil? Hariri bloc will have to do with old (Fatfat & co...) and bring in new blood, as for Jumblatt, he will have to away with Hamadeh... as for President Suleiman: Nazem El Khoury, Michel Murr ...? We hear that Suleiman Frangieh wishes to stay out of the NUG, and relinquishes as such his share to Gen. Aoun.

Colonel Lang has this 'epitaph':

"Another day of joy (irony alert) for the likes of Friedman, Brooks and Rice. What was it Brooks wrote last week? "What possible coalition could Hizbullah participate in in Lebanon?" (paraphrase)

The funny thing is that we Americans and Saudis pushed the Lebanese so hard and so obviously that they finally had no choice but to make a deal (always a thing the Lebanese can do).

I am going on a road trip or the next two days but I wanted to throw this ball up in the air for you all to play with in my absence. pl

ps. Syria and Israel are going to make another "day of joy" for the Flatlanders. Do you all remember them among the minor and oft forgotten peoples whom Gulliver visited?" pl

Doha: Solution in sight? Stay tuned Wednesday May 21 at 10:00AM Doha time

مراسل الجزيرة: علي حسن خليل النائب بالبرلمان ومساعد لرئيس البرلمان اللبناني يعلن الاقتراب من حل للأزمة اللبنانية في محادثات الدوحة

Iran Proposal for "constructive negotiations"...

Via War&Piece, here (in English) and Nukes& Spooks has this on Secretary Gates' testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee, and comments by Senator Spector, here

"I've had an opportunity to talk to the president about it directly. And I believe he needs to hear more from people like you than from people like me, but from both of us, and that it's not appeasement, and that the analogy to Neville Chamberlain is wrong. And we've got one government to deal with there (Iran)," Specter continued. "I've had a chance to talk to the last three Iranian ambassadors to the U.N. And I think there is an opportunity for dialogue. But I think we have to be a little courageous about it and take a chance, because the alternatives are very, very, very bleak."

Siniora's Adviser: "The Armenians want "rights" in Lebanon.. while they have only crumbs in Armenia"

Political eunuch, DOCTOR Radwan Al Sayyed (on Wardeh's Voice of Lebanon Radio Program), Fuad Siniora's senior adviser (for?) lambasted Lebanese-Armenians for asking for a fair share of the Lebanese polity ... while he described Michel Aoun's 'presence' as made of political "remains"..... having gone through the whole roster of Opposition figure, Hezbollah, Frangieh ..... via Hafez Al Assad...

لفت مستشار رئيس الحكومة فؤاد السنيورة، رضوان السيد ان هذه هي المحاولة الثالثة التي تطرح في مؤتمر الدوحة، وكلما وافق أحد على صيغة يرفضها الآخر، مشيرا انه لا يظن ان هذه المحاولة ستنجح لان المعارضة لديها خطة بعدم انتخاب رئيس للجمهورية.
السيد وفي حديث الى "صوت لبنان"، اكد ان المطلوب من أجل إبقاء رئيس كتلة "التغيير والاصلاح" النائب العماد ميشال عون على قيد الحياة سياسيا يحتم ان لا ينتخب رئيس، ولو انتخب لكان سافر الى مالطا او الى اي بلد آخر. وشدد السيد انه لن يقبل بالمثالثة في بيروت بعد ان اخذت المعارضة تقسيماتها الطائفية المناسبة في مناطقها، فهي اليوم تريد حصة لا تملكها في بيروت، مؤكدا الى انهم عندما يقولون بيروت للجميع، يشيرون بأنها ليست لسكانها. وسأل كيف يريد الارمني الذي لا يملك شيئا في ارمينيا، الثلث في بيروت، وأردف السيد انه لم يعد يفهم شيئا، ولا يظن ان "حزب الله" يريد ان يتحول الى حام للأقليات العرقية والدينية.

Fouad Siniora — "once a poster boy for Mr. Bush" ...was the recipient of very little real help

In the NYTimes, here

"Disappearing act: White House denial makes Jerusalem Post vanish"

Laura Rosen, in MoJo, here

"....There was an article on the Jerusalem Post website this morning titled "'Bush intends to attack Iran before the end of his term'" which was widely circulated on various listservs; the White House issued a denial of the story -- interestingly, the Jerusalem Post, rather than simply run a follow-up piece reporting the White House's denial, or expanding the existing article, seems to have outright replaced the original piece with a new one: the link for the original piece (www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1210668683139&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull) now yields the new, substitute piece with the title "White House denies Iran attack report". Where is the original piece? I can't find it online anywhere else in its original form, though I do have a copy in my e-mail ..."

White House on Tuesday "flatly denies" an Israel Army Radio report that claimed Bush intends to attack Iran...

In the Jerusalem Post, here

Christians marginalised in Lebanon crisis

In Reuters, here

Qataris 'extend' Lebanon talks and submit two proposals

Talks 'extended' for 24 hours and Hamad Bin Jassem submits to the opposing sides two 'proposals' (Aoun confirms that the Opposition DID NOT receive any proposal):

(Proposal A): National Unity Government: "Loyalists" retain 16 portfolios, while Opposition gets 'veto power' with 11, and President gets 3 portfolios.

Beirut electoral 'redistricting': District 1: 7 Seats... District 2: 7 seats ... DISTRICT 3: 5 SEATS!

(Proposal B:) National Unity Government (same as above)

Electoral Law to be ratified by Parliament as it stands today.... (A trick if you ask me..)

"...Virtually all of America's Middle-East problems are worsening as the administration prepares to leave office..."

CSIS's Jon Alterman, here

"It has become impossible to credibly argue that the Bush Administration’s Middle East policies have advanced the national interests of the United States. After shifting enormous resources toward addressing the problems of the region following the events of September 11, 2001, and after cautioning patience through the “birth pangs of democracy,” the results have become clear. On every issue that the administration has prioritized—promoting Arab-Israeli peace, liberating Lebanon from Syrian and Iranian influence, democratizing Egypt, stabilizing Iraq, and containing Iran—America’s foes have grown stronger and its allies have grown weaker. Even more troublingly, virtually all of these problems are worsening as the administration prepares to leave office..."

Lebanon: Economy on the Edge

In OBG, here

"Though the current rating of "B3" is the lowest rating possible for governments that are not in default, or at imminent risk of default, a Moody's official said Lebanon had shown an ability to overcome many difficulties.
"Given that the government of Lebanon is not in default, Moody's believes that the country's low ratings already encapsulate the risk of severe political turmoil," said Tristan Cooper, vice-president of Moody's Sovereign Risk Unit."
"So far, donor countries such as Saudi Arabia and the US have remained committed to maintaining their political and financial support for the Siniora government. However, this backing may come to the test if Hezbollah returns to the government, one of the conditions it is seeking to end its campaign of unrest."

"Special FUTURE Coordinator" Salim Diab 'Out'.... The rest are face saving measures ..

"and he made a statement to dispel the rumors about his demise. But the real word is that he is OUT! Just face saving measures. There is an internal reckoning among the cadres of Al Mustaqbal about where and how the money was spent.".... So says a well informed observer of all things "Beiruti"... Al Balad adds this to the fray: يقال ان زعيم تيار موال وجه صفعة الى احدى الشخصيات البيروتية التي كلفها بتنظيم تياره في بيروت.(البلد)

"

Diab heading a "seemingly" important meeting at Quraytem (look at map in front of him) on May 19, to coordinate his exit (across the street) and return to the commerce of bathroom appliances, where he was sorely missed!

Beirut remains the snag in the "New Electoral Law" deliberations in Doha

مراسل الجزيرة بن جدو: العقدة الحقيقية الان هي قانون الانتخاب وتحديداً بما يتعلق بتقسيم بيروت............ المفاوضات الان جدية وحثيثة وربما يتم الاتفاق على شيء ما الليلة وبشكل مفاجئ

The Saudis are scuttling all attempts to reach a compromise: The hope is that the United States will 'assist' its allies in Lebanon (and elsewhere in the Middle East) in the period that separates us from the ....'Guns of August' maybe?! At no time were the US stooges in Lebanon (and the Saudis to a lesser extent) more sure of a debilitating Iran strike!

Ramon: Israel's government holding talks with Hamas

In Haaretz, here

".....Ramon, speaking at a Kadima faction meeting, criticized Israel's negotiations with the militants group and voiced hope that the cabinet would soon make a strategic decision not to accept the Hamas presence along Israel's southern border......

Ramon's comments marked that first time a minister in the Knesset has confirmed that Israel was holding direct talks with Hamas...."

This Administration's few successes have come when it's agreed to engage with adversaries

Fareed Zakaria, in Newsweek, here

"....Hizbullah is not like Al Qaeda, a rootless organization that engages solely in existential terrorism. It's a homegrown group with deep roots in Lebanon's Shia community .....

The foundation of Hizbullah's strength is not just its rockets but the support it can command from 1 million Lebanese Shiites. That's why dealing with the group as a military problem is counterproductive......

Perhaps Gates noticed ..........................."

Open Thread: As seen in Doha

La France parle avec le Hamas ....

Nicolas Sarkozy n'est plus hostile à l'ouverture de «passerelles» avec les islamistes palestiniens.....In Le Figaro, here, ... and for those Anglophiles, in the NYTimes, here

Pro-Hariri & government loyalists come up with an Opposition commercial "Boycott list" ...

........similar to "antiJewish boycotts in Nazi Germany" ..... the listed, are Shi`ite owned companies or stores and other establishments with pro-Aoun and Frangieh tendencies ... We will not put up this company, as we will not give a pulpit to such lunacy. The Iraqi model is being shoved down the throats of the Lebanese by Saudi Arabia and its minions.

Israel drops its objection to the release of Samir Kuntar?

In Haaretz, here

"...Until now, Israel's position has prevailed. Thus Kuntar was not released in the last swap with Hezbollah, in 2003, when Israel freed some 400 other Lebanese and Palestinian prisoners in exchange for kidnapped businessman Elhanan Tennenbaum and the bodies of three kidnapped soldiers, Benny Avraham, Omar Suweid and Adi Avitan. Instead, it was agreed that Kuntar would be released as part of a follow-up deal in exchange for information on Arad.
Israel has now apparently dropped its objection to releasing Kuntar. But the senior official insisted that even if it is compelled to trade Kuntar for Regev and Goldwasser, Israel will still demand that Hezbollah keep its promise to supply information on Arad's fate...."

It is clear to Hizbullah that winning in a war with Israel is a piece of cake compared to avoiding the traps of the streets of Beirut...

Hanady Salman in Al Ahram, here

Bush ends Mideast Tour after scolding Arabs & lavishing praise on Israel ... and with no gains!

Hannah Allam in McClatchy's, here

"....Bush's tough talk on Iran drew only scattered applause. While many Arab states are alarmed at Iran's sway in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, leaders have said they're even more fearful of a preemptive U.S. strike against Tehran that almost certainly would lead to an Iranian retaliation with the potential to ripple across the Middle East

Bush was supposed to have met with Lebanon's embattled Prime Minister Fouad Saniora, who was a no-show at the conference. The U.S.-backed premier gave no reason for the cancellation, but his weakened government is involved in crisis talks in Qatar with opposition figures

In his speech, Bush lumped the Lebanese guerrilla group Hezbollah and the Palestinian militants of Hamas — both of which receive Iranian support — under the same "terrorist" label as the al Qaida network. Hezbollah is a firmly entrenched part of the Lebanese establishment, with political and charitable arms. Palestinians voted Hamas leaders into office in elections that were praised as some of the most transparent in the Middle East......"

Jalal Talabani has dismissed claims that Iran is sending weapons into his country and called for strong Iran ties

In PRESS/TV, here

"Those who make such claims against Iran only express their personal views which don't reflect those of the Iraqi government," he said in interview with the Al-Arabiya TV on Friday.

What Next in Lebanon? In the Wake of the Doha Truce

Karim Maqdisi in Counterpunch, here

".....The continued US, Israeli and Saudi obsession with Iran (which these days is being used interchangeably with “Shia’a” in a bid to fan sectarian flames) means that they will already be planning ahead for the next battle, probably in Lebanon and almost certainly in Gaza (since Hamas is placed in the “Iran” column), in order to halt the perceived Iranian gain in Lebanon last week. In such a case, the recent conciliatory sentiments expressed by some March 14 leaders like Walid Jumblatt must be read as a strategic objective to gain time and space to regroup.......

The disconcerting silence of Saudi Arabia is perhaps the most troubling. Not only have the Saudi-sponsored sectarian militias in Lebanon been defeated, but now its tiny but increasingly ambitious Gulf rival state of Qatar has rubbed salt into its wounds by stealing the diplomatic limelight and consolidating its role as regional peacemaker. The Saudis have both the means and influence to mobilize Sunni Salafist groups in Lebanon in a protracted sectarian war against Hizbullah, or precipitate the collapse of the Lebanese economy, if it decides it has ‘lost’ the country to Iran. As such, the Doha participants will want to pacify the Saudis......

....Hizbullah understands well that its take-over of Beirut—following over a year’s non-violent campaign that yielded much bating by March 14 militias but no political gains—required the betrayal of its long-standing commitment to the Lebanese people not to use its formidable weapons internally.........

...the Lebanese have two choices. They can retain the existing political system and thus continue to endure persistently unstable conditions --and potentially further conflict-- until the US drops its disastrous ‘war on terror’ policy in the region and starts engaging its perceived enemies......."

US Official:"if we are not willing to `bomb Syria' when they aid in the killing of our troops in Iraq, we certainly are not going to do it for Siniora

From MEPGS: (excerpts)

"......US officials continue to ponder how its allies so badly miscalculated in their confrontation with Hezbollah. These officials are at a loss to explain how the normally cautious Prime Minister Siniora would make such confrontational demands upon the powerful Shia militia. "After some 4800 decisions by consensus, the government all of a sudden decides to challenge Hezbollah," says one key US official. "Frankly, I think Hezbollah had no choice but to respond.".....

From the US, Hariri was seeking, as usual, increased international support. But he also repeated requests for direct military pressure on Syria's borders by US forces in Iraq and new weaponry for the Lebanese Armed Forces, specifically Cobra AH-1 attack helicopters. The Administration was favorably considering the supply of the helicopters, but key US officials say that at no time did they intimate that they were prepared to confront Syria militarily........As one well-placed US official put it, "We have made it abundantly clear that if we are not willing to `bomb Damascus' when the Syrians aid and abet in the killing of our troops in Iraq, we certainly are not going to do it to support the Lebanese government.".....

There is reliable evidence to US policymakers that top Syrian leaders including President Bashar al-Assad have expressed great satisfaction at the outcome of the confrontation.......

US officials have also concluded that the Israeli political leadership has no real interest in pursuing talks with Syria at this time. At best, it is thought that Israeli Prime Minister Olmert is prepared, in the words of one well-placed diplomat, "to keep his options open." More likely, says this diplomat, Olmert sees it useful to keep Syria "in play" as he negotiates with the Palestinians.......

However, the Israelis are anything but sanguine about the situation in Gaza. Most senior officials believe it is only a matter of time before the Israeli military will make a major thrust into Gaza. "It is not a question of whether but when," says one well-placed Israeli official. "And that `when' will likely occur after one of their attacks really succeeds in causing significant loss of life." That is not to say the Israelis are looking forward to such an undertaking. As one well-placed Israeli official put it last week, "Going into Gaza is like going back into Lebanon." ....

And with the end of the Bush Administration in sight, there is little expectation that Iran will change course or is even interested in talks with the US. [Still, Iran continues to dominate many inter agency discussions,
with a wide range of options constantly under discussion, say Administration insiders]. If, indeed, Iran cannot be engaged, let alone deterred from its present course by the Bush Administration, then many see it being at least a year before any conceivable break through could take place. And by then it could be too late, say the Israelis....."

Hezbollah Emerges in Forefront of Power in Lebanon

The US government goes on a media blitz today with both the NYTimes (I'll not bother post their story here, ... it hides the fact that whatever happened in Beirut was a bout of violence with US-proxy militias taking part) ....and the Washington Post here.

".....Assem Salam was a young man when a Sunni Muslim and Maronite Catholic politician forged a compromise that inaugurated modern Lebanon in 1943. Shiites were hardly a factor.

An iconoclast for a man who hails from one of the country's best-known Sunni families, he said he would now welcome a Hezbollah victory, as long as it meant stability. "I really don't care anymore," he said. "Is Lebanon viable anymore?" he asked. "Is Lebanon really viable?"

US ready to participate in talks between Syria & Israel ?....

Seems improbable that the US wants to participate.... In Haaretz, here

"......According to the report, the U.S. request comes in light of the recent political crisis in Lebanon, and U.S. assessments that peace between Israel and Syria will help distance the country from Hezbollah......

The source (to Al Hayat) added that the U.S. said they are ready to participate in talks between the countries if Turkey is able to achieve a breakthrough between them.......

The newspaper (Al Ahram) quoted a Syrian official as stating that the probability of direct Israeli-Syrian negotiations taking place while President Bush remains in office remains slim, according to Israel Radio....."

EIU: Lebanon politics: Square one?

The EIU buys too much into Jumblat's version of events, way way way too much ... and portrays Siniora as having have instigated "a deliberate ploy to expose the destructive tendencies of his opponents".... and finished off on a dud "Mr Siniora may yet be vindicated—but only if Hizbullah can be persuaded to drop its insistence on the opposition holding veto powers within a national unity government. For Hizbullah to consider such a concession, it would need to receive assurances regarding its right to preserve its military assets"......, Nope! The Opposition will insist on '1/3+1' : Level of trust in whatever Siniora & Co. commits to is minus 100 .....Via Abou Muqawama, here

McCain Was in Favor of Talks with Syria, Despite Saying they Were "Sponsoring and Harboring Terrorists"

HuffingtonPost, here

......"I think it's appropriate that Colin Powell is going there (Damascus)...

MATTHEWS: So you don't agree with Newt Gingrich dumping all over him? You don't agree with Newt Gingrich dumping on the Powell trip?

MCCAIN: You know, Dick -- Richard Armitage is Powell's deputy. And he's a wonderful guy. He served in Vietnam. And he's a really tough guy. And he was quoted someplace today that Newt Gingrich is out of therapy...."

Saudis to Bush on Iran: "..some subtlety of negotiation, minimal, effective violence, and strategically useful bribery..NOT Bush's "mischief"...

SicSemperTyrannis, here

"...A continuing war in Iraq in which American policy has placed the despised Shia in control of the country is not among the things the Saudis would have hoped for. An unremitting hostility towards Iran which demands Saudi acquiescence in a policy likely to involve Saudi Arabia in war with Iran is not among the things the Saudis would have hoped for. The Saudis believe in dealing with problems like Iranian expansiveness with; some subtlety of negotiation, minimal but effective violence, and strategically useful bribery. A presidential visit to the region which begins with an ecstatic presidential speech to the Knesset swearing undying and unconditional loyalty to Israel is not one of the things the Saudis would have wanted..."

Israeli intelligence chief says Abbas might flee if peace fails

Via AngryArab, in the IHT, here

"....Yadlin predicted that such a failure of the U.S.-backed efforts would severely weaken Abbas and force him to leave the West Bank.

"If there is a sharp confrontation, with accusations hurled, I think the Palestinian Authority leadership will be very much weakened, so much so that very senior officials will leave," Yadlin told the newspaper...."

"Iran's tool fights America's stooge.."

In the Economist, here

Siniora: "Bush's words of support are Opportunistic..."

In NowLebanon, here

"...Siniora, in statement to Voice of Lebanon, expressed his disappointment in the way US President Bush took the 60th anniversary of the Nakba as a platform to support Lebanon, expressing that president Bush has exerted no real pressure to form an independent Palestinian state.
“If President Bush wants to support Lebanon and the Lebanese cabinet, then he has to pressure the Israelis to end their occupation..."

"In secret meeting with Talabani, Iran's Qods Force Gen. Soleimani sends Petraeus a message on "Iraq, Lebanon & Gaza..."

In CSM, here

"....Soleimani gave Mr. Talabani a "message" for US Gen. David Petraeus, too. He noted that his portfolio includes Iraq, Gaza, and Lebanon and that he was willing to "send a small team" to "discuss any issue" with the Americans.

Talabani and other senior Iraqi leaders told US Ambassador Ryan Crocker and General Petraeus that this "was an entirely different tone than we had ever heard from [Soleimani] before," and asked the Americans to "please take it seriously" and "test it," according to the official...."

"....The question now is not whether Siniora's government will fall, but rather when and how...."

Zvi Barel in Haaretz, here

"....In internal Druze politics, this is a big deal; in Lebanese politics it is a routine matter. Shifting alliances, the betrayal of partners and the adoption of new ones are part and parcel of Lebanese politics, which in part accounts for its uniqueness...

Siniora is wary of talking about disarming Hezbollah, and said: "We have never sought the disarmament of Hezbollah." ....

....Those who had demanded that Hezbollah lay down its arms are now being told to disarm. ...."

"If you don't settle your differences ... stay away"

Amen to that! On the way to Beirut International Airport, members of the "Handicapped Union" and other NGOs tell Lebanon's politicians, war lords, inflated clowns & others not to return if they fail to settle their differences.

Are 'all' parties wholeheartedly present in Doha?

"Olmert should "learn from Bush what Zionism is" ..says Israeli MK

In McClatchy's here

"It's very nice to hear that 7 million is 307 million," said Efraim Halevy, the former head of Israel's spy agency. "The speechwriter did a good job, but this is not a sign of commitment. Let's be a little more level-headed when we try to count the dividends of such a statement."

As one of a small number of influential Israelis who have called on Israel to talk to Hamas, the Palestinian movement that won the last parliamentary elections and now controls Gaza, Halevy opted not to rebut Bush's suggestion that his actions were akin to World War II-era leaders who tried in vain to appease Nazi leader Adolf Hitler...."

Marwan Hamadé avait présenté à Bernard Kouchner, « avant le mois de mars », une carte du réseau du Hezbollah...

Marwan's Kitchen ...... In Geopolitique, here and Marwan's "map" below ... good use of the red color.

What “Lebanese consensus” can Hezbollah possibly be a part of?

.... asks Neocon propagandist cum sympathizer David Brooks in NYTimes, here

Emir of Qatar opens 'Lebanon Talks' amid lowered expectations..

Saudis Resist Bush on Oil ...

In the NYtimes, here

"......In other words, the Saudi response was not materially different from "Piss off." At this point, the only really interesting question is whether they're throttling their supply because they want to or because they have to. As time goes on and prices keep going up, I'm inclining more and more toward the latter...."

Aoun goes to Doha weary of a 'concoction'...

The General is sensing that the Arabs (in this case the Qataris) are listening carefully to Nabih Barri's "whispers" on perhaps, the need to fast-track the election of a President, before and at the expense of all else.... In whatever the General pulls at Doha, he has the FULL support of Suleiman Frangieh. Brings to mind, the "Mikhael-Daher-1988-Christian-Front"... This does not sound too comforting...

وتعليقاً عما أشيع عن رفضه إدراج اسم قائد الجيش العماد ميشال سليمان كمرشح توافقي وحيد، أشار العماد عون إلى حديثه يُترجم دائماً في شكل خاطئ، موضحاً أنه اقترح الحكومة الانتقالية حتى لا يُترك البلد في حال تصادم إذا لم يتوصل القادة إلى تفاهم.
وسأل العماد عون قبيل مغادرته إلى الدوحة: نحن دعونا إلى حكومة انتقالية تمثل كل الناس وتؤمن الاستقرار والطمأنينة كاقتراح احتياطي في حال لم نستطع التوصل إلى اتفاق.

McCain 2006': "They're (Hamas) the government; sooner or later we are going to have to deal with them..it's a new reality in the Middle East..."

Kevin Drum says McCain (who just agreed with Bush's talking to "terrorists and radicals is appeasement" ...says that "McCain will wriggle out of this somehow. Maybe by claiming that "sooner or later" means, um, later. Or that "deal with them" doesn't include actually talking to them. Or something. But it sure sounds as if he was in favor of talking to Hamas before he was opposed to it."

Mossad's Halevy: "Bush went to elections with a gun in his belt twice, In Lebanon & in the Palestinian case ..."

Laura Rosen in MoJo, here

"...Why do the rules of Iraq not apply here?" Halevy asks. "If they can be pragmatic in Iraq, why are they ideological in Palestine?"

A 'somber' US crew find their way back to Rabieh ...

Israel protests UN chief Ban Ki-Moon`s use of term `nakba` (Israel Radio)

Who wants to stop Iran?

Haaretz, here

{Bush said:} "For the sake of peace, the world must not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. And he added: "America stands with you in firmly opposing Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions." Bush's declarations could be seen as a calming expression of support: The U.S. president clearly does not favor a nuclear Iran. But one can also wonder about the wording he chose in this speech. Does relying on what the "world" does - or standing with Israel, which might take action itself - mean that America does not plan to be the one to stop Iran?

Are Bush and his aides in step on Iran?

In Nikes&Spooks, here

".....After President Bush's speech to Israel's parliament today, administration spokesmen found themselves scrambling to unscramble whether Bush and his secretaries of state and defense are reading from the same script when it comes to Iran.....

Only a day before Bush's speech, Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates said that the United States needs to "figure out a way to develop some leverage" over Iran "and then sit down and talk with them."......

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has been more explicit for months, saying that Bush is prepared to "reverse 27 years of policy" and allow her to meet face-to-face "anytime, anywhere" with her Iranian counterpart once Tehran embraces a U.N. Security Council demand to suspend its uranium enrichment project...."

"Watching President Bush in Israel..."

Laura Rosen filed this story from Israel, on MoJo, here ... against a background of Gershom Gorenberg's "Losing Lebanon" here and Daniel Levi's IHT, "Road Map To Nowhere," here

"...........If Bush was looking for support in his belief that public opinion is fleeting but that history will be the ultimate judge of his presidency, he found it in spades last night here, where he is widely viewed as a determined leader who understood the terror threat and was willing to act to meet its challenge. Applause interrupted his speech -- replete with famliiar references to remaining steadfast against terror and advancing human liberty ... others in attendance at the conference, ..Condolezza Rice, former Clinton Middle East hand(s) Dennis Ross, Martin Indyk and Daniel Kurtzer, Vaclav Havel, Tony Blair, Google's Sergei Brin and Rupert Murdoch...

Though Bush was described as among the most supportive US presidents of Israel, some Israeli security officials have questioned not his good intentions toward their nation but the pragmatic outcomes of his policies, particularly as Hezbollah demonstrates its growing strength in Lebanon over the US-backed Siniora government and Hamas continues to launch rockets from Gaza into the town of Sderot and the city of Ashkelon. The Bush administration pushed Israel and Palestinian moderates to allow Hamas to run in 2006 Palestinian parliamentary elections which Hamas then won, and it took over the Gaza strip last year....."

ICG: "Lebanon must find a middle ground between recklessly seeking Hezbollah's forcible disarmament & allowing the unfettered use of its weapons..."

Read the full Crisis Group report here and as sobering, "Keep It Together", here in the Economist.

"...In many respects, Lebanon reflects the fissures and rivalries that have rocked the wider region. Indeed, that is just the trouble. Since the Shias of Iraq and Iran have come more boisterously to the fore in the past few years, their co-religionists in Lebanon have demanded, ever more insistently, a leading, even predominant, role in their own patch and beyond, in keeping with their fast-growing numbers (they are now Lebanon's largest single group) and in view of their past poverty and political inferiority...."

Fatah al-Islam threatens Hezbollah with "bloodshed"...

In Xinhua, here

Lebanon rivals agree to Doha talks ... and Opposition gets 'Veto Power' by the force of arms...

In al Jazeera/English, here

Russia says "Six" could guarantee Iran security

In Reuters, here

US Defense Secretary urges more "private US contacts with Iran"....

AFP, here

"We need to figure out a way to develop some leverage with the Iranians and then sit down and talk with them," he said in a talk at the American Academy of Diplomacy, referring to general US relations with Tehran.

"If there is going to be a discussion then they need something, too," he said. "We can't go to a discussion and be completely the 'demandeur' with them not feeling they do not need anything from us."

Fomenting War in Lebanon: ARE BUSH-CHENEY AL QAEDA ALLIES?

In the Baltimore Chronicle, here

".....We have to say that this level of intense tensions and conflict and animosity is the product of a deliberate American-Saudi policy of instigating a Sunni-Shiite conflict, the likes of which Lebanon has never seen. I mean, even somebody like myself who comes from a split background—my mother is Sunni, and my father is Shiite—I mean, we’ve never seen anything like this. Saudi media, with the full cooperation of the United States, have been for three years mobilizing the Lebanese opposition, because that’s the only thing they have....They have been [doing] serious propagandizing to [split] Sunnis from Shiites in order [to] create a militia that can stand up to Hezbollah....."

.... meanwhile, the 'Celebrations' continue on the '60th'...

Listening to Mr. Mordechi Eliav as he describes the ongoing construction project that is the Western Wall Tunnels, Mrs. Laura Bush and Mrs. Aliza Olmert, spouse of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, participate in a tour of the Jerusalem site.

Sources: U.S. cuts off Chalabi

Kianne Sadeq and Aram Roston on MSNBC, here

The reason, the sources say, is "unauthorized" contacts with Iran's government, an allegation Chalabi denies.(Remember that Chalabi's Iraqi National Congress (INC) used to share office space with a law firm who had a certain .....Douglas Feith on its roster of partners!)

Washington 'pressures' the UNSC to discuss Lebanon in preparation of a new resolution ...

Radio SAWA, here and Nukes & Spooks has this on CENTCOM's Dempsey's 'visit' to the US's Lebanese allies today.

جدد الرئيس بوش الأربعاء دعم الولايات المتحدة لرئيس الحكومة اللبنانية فؤاد السنيورة، وقال في ختام لقائه مع رئيس الوزراء الإسرائيلي أيهود أولمرت في القدس إن حزب الله الذي يدعي حماية اللبنانيين من إسرائيل انقلب الآن ضد شعبه.
جاءت تصريحات بوش في الوقت الذي تعتزم فيه الولايات المتحدة الضغط على مجلس الأمن الدولي لبحث التطورات التي حدثت في لبنان في الآونة الأخيرة.
فقد أعلن المتحدث باسم وزارة الخارجية الأميركية توم كايسي أن مجلس الأمن الدولي سيجتمع لاحقا اليوم الأربعاء لبحث أعمال العنف في لبنان، مشيرا إلى حصول مشاورات وأن مشاورات إضافية ستجري.
وأضاف كايسي أن هذه المشاورات ستستكمل على الأرجح في الأيام المقبلة، من دون أن يوضح ما إذا كانت الولايات المتحدة تنوي طرح مشروع قرار على مجلس الأمن.
وقال كايسي: "في هذه المرحلة لا ندري بعد جيدا طبيعة التحرك الذي يمكن أن تفضي إليه هذه المحادثات ولكننا نعتقد أن من المهم أن يعبر المجلس بقوة عن موقفه من هذه المسألة". وأكد أن هذه قضية تقلق عددا كبيرا من الدول الأعضاء في المجلس.
وكان زلماي خليل زاد مندوب الولايات المتحدة لدى الأمم المتحدة قد دعا مجلس الأمن الإثنين إلى تناول الأزمة اللبنانية في أسرع وقف ممكن.

Siniora's Government "retreats"...

غازي العريضي في مقدمة طويلة بعد إجتماع مجلس الوزراء: بما أنّ القرارين إتخذا كذريعة لإجتياح بيروت حكومة السنيورة تتراجع .......حكومة السنيورة تعلن إلغاء قراريها المتعلقين بشبكة إتصالات المقاومة والعميد وفيق شقير

Talal Arslan: "Siniora's refusal to rescind the infamous decrees, would warrant storming the Serail in a National 'rescue mission'..."

في حال رفضت حكومة السراي التراجع عن قراريها وُجب الدخول الى السراي، لأنّه في حينها وللأسف يجب القيام بعملية إنقاذية للوطن

Acting Commander of CENTCOM Visits Michel Sleiman & Elias Murr

US Embassy/Beirut Press Release:

Lieutenant General Martin Dempsey, Acting Commander of U.S. Military Central Command, visited Lebanon on May 14, 2008. Accompanied by U.S. Chargé d’Affaires a. i. Michele J. Sison, General Dempsey held meetings with Elias Murr, the Minister of Defense, and Lieutenant General Michel Sleiman, the Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces.

The discussions focused on the continued assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces so it can maintain peace and stability, and safeguard the Lebanese people.

The U.S. Government will continue to support the legitimate institutions of the Lebanese government and the Lebanese people as they seek to preserve their independence and security.

[UPDATE: Later that same day, at the Council of Ministers, Elias Murr was among the most vociferous opponents of the debated decision to 'rescind the decrees' that led to the bloody confrontations, along with Joe Sarkis & Nayla ...]

Hezbollah frees the 4 Jumblat detainees....

أفاد مندوب "الوكالة الوطنية للاعلام" رشيد زين الدين أن "حزب الله" سلم الحزب "الديموقراطي اللبناني"، عصراليوم، اربعة عناصر كان أوقفها خلال اشتباكات الشويفات الأحد الماضي، هم: عماد البعيني، وكريم العريضي، وسامر نعيم وناجي هرموش.

"In the waning days of office, engagement with radicals doesn’t look as bad..and if it works, Bush would have Israel to thank..."

Laura Rosen, in Foreign Policy, here

".....Although current Israeli political leaders appear to be in close step with the Bush administration, the country’s former security officials did not wait for Bush’s trip to make their case. The impasse over Gaza and the peace feelers regarding Syria have drawn a number of veteran Israeli officials to Washington to urge the Bush administration to reconsider its approach. Among those who have recently traveled to Washington are a former director of the Mossad and a parade of former senior members of the Israeli Foreign Ministry...."

....meanwhile, 'Celebrations' continue & guests arrive ...

Bush arrives in Israel to Celebrate '60th'

Ghassan Ben Jeddo: "Jumblat told Arab mediators that Beirut & the Mountain support the "Resistance"..."

New line by the Lord of Mukhtarah: Ghassan Ben Jeddo, directly from Beirut on Al Jazeera!

"...we took of bunch of Lebanese political actors who seemed to push all the right buttons for us..."

"Briefing On Beirut" at the New America Foundation, via "Lebanon Again", here

Flynt Leverett says:
"one of the biggest mistakes of the Bush administration in the Middle East is that in the aftermath of the assassination of Rafik Hariri in February 2005 to lash on to the so-called Cedar revolution to leverage the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon, to leverage pressure on the regime through the International tribunal and to leverage the "Lebanese democracy". It was a colossal mistake for three reasons:
1- Let us not be overly romantic, Lebanon in the post-Hariri period is not a true democracy, it is a political order rooted in the distribution of political assets along sectarian lines and the patterns of distribution are way out of whack with demographic reality particularly with regard to the Shiia. The last conversation in the world the March 14 would like to have is about "one man, one vote".
2- I said it was a mistake because the Lebanese arena is, at best, a side-show in terms of America's real strategic interests and to use the Lebanese "democracy" for not engaging strategically with Syria and Iran is the height of strategic malpractice as far as I'm concerned for the American administration.
3- It's a mistake because, it does not work, what we did is basically what we did in the early eighties; we took of bunch of western-oriented Lebanese political actors whom we liked because they basically looked like us, talked like us, seemed to push all the right buttons for us in terms of what their political values were, and then we arrayed them against people who have real street credit. The results in the eighties were disastrous and the results now are proving to be very, very bad for US interest in the region. The Syrian regime is more strongly entrenched, more powerful and more influential, certainly Iranian influence strongly increased over the last three years and this policy was a colossal failure. Unfortunately this policy enjoyed strong bipartisan support...
It is a foreign policy based on illusion rather than one based on sober assessment on the ground reality and a clear understanding of what America's interests are. And to the extent that we are going to continue to try to play this game with the so-called March 14 coalition, it is going to contribute to further erosion of American standing and influence in this part of the region and if we should be ever foolish enough to think like in the eighties we can intervene by putting American military on the ground, the outcome will be the same as the eighties, many good soldiers and personnel will loose their lives for no good reason. "

Thos. Friedman: "Future TV is Progressive"...

And so was Joseph Goebbels............In the NYTimes, here

Salafis & Takfiris upsurge in North Lebanon...

Fida' Itani in Al Akhbar, here and Amos Harel in Haaretz, here

In one Future's 'offices'

"Mr. President ... just Shut Up ..."

M14er Rajeh Khoury asks Bush to "shut up" for inciting sectarian strife in Lebanon for Israel's security ..... in AnNahar, here

"Bush's Last Middle East Trip Could Be More Than Just Farewells"

WINEP offers policy recommendations for greater US "....putting more pressure on Hizballah's & Hamas patrons in Damascus and Tehran ...", WINEP, here and Akiva Eldar asks Bush to "Stay Home", in Haaretz, here

"....For this trip to prove a success (even symbolically), it will be essential that the president make concrete exchanges with the U.S. allies facing challenges from common regional foes. This could take the form of additional U.S. economic or security support in return for commitments to help with the threats from soaring oil prices and Iran and its proxies. Given the risks of pro-American positions by U.S. regional allies, President Bush should strive to make this trip more substantive than symbolic..."

"The Miscalculation"

Sami Moubayed in Mideastnews, here via SyriaComment.

".........That sums it up. Nasrallah will not allow anybody to touch the arms of Hezbollah and is willing to fight to maintain his status, and that of his party, in the Arab-Israeli conflict. His supporters argue that as a pragmatic leader, and a cunning statesman who excels in psychological warfare, he does not want to rule Beirut.
He is neither interested nor politically able (although it would be easy, in military terms). He realizes that the confessional system of Lebanon is too complicated for such a task, and said it bluntly last Wednesday, "If they told us to come take over, we would say 'no thank you'."
Had he wanted a real coup, he would not have transferred control to the Lebanese army, nor would he have laid down his arms in Beirut. He would have invaded and stormed the homes of Jumblatt and Hariri and arrested both of them, along with Siniora, and set up a new government, to his liking, and to that of Iran. But that is an illogical scenario that would never pass...."

Hariri accuses Hezbollah of "Collusion with Israel", and Saud al Faisal "warns Iran..."

We never dreamt to see the day when some trivial schmuck would say that Iran, Hezbollah & Israel colluded on anything, ... much less on his insignificant realm ............ In Al Jazeera (Arabic & English) here & here

Israel: "Saudis secretly funneled weapons to anti-Hezbollah forces"

In the excessively neo-conish WorldNetDaily, here
"....Informed security officials say the Saudi weapons were used by pro-democracy gunmen battling Hezbollah forces since Hezbollah started the violence last week after the Lebanese government decided to dismantle and take legal action against Hezbollah's communications network...."

WSJ spells it out: "Bombing the runway of the Damascus airport" could save Lebanon...

In the WSJournal, here

"We need the U.S., but we are hearing nothing substantial from them,"

In the WaPo, here and the LATimes, here

"...In an earlier interview with the al-Arabiya television network, Bush said he personally admired Siniora. "We will help him," Bush said. ....

One March 14 politician, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, called for "tactical strikes" against Syria to pressure the government to rein in Hezbollah.....

members of a coalition known as March 14 -- said U.S. statements on the crisis have been too weak and called for more pressure on Hezbollah and its Syrian backers. The politicians said they felt abandoned by the United States....."

"The Americans are telling March 14 they have to resist," said one Western diplomat in Beirut. "But they're not bringing much operational support."

"We're not asking them to fight our fight for us," said Mouawad, the minister. "But at least don't let us be slaughtered by total indifference."

"Same guys that gave you Gaza gave you this. Do you think any of them are smart enough to see what they've done?"

Laura Rosen in War&Piece, here

".........(Israel) But from left to right, Bush also faces criticism for pursuing Middle East policies that, many diplomats and analysts believe, have left Israel more threatened than when he assumed office in January 2001...............

As former US government officer active in the region told me in response to news about Lebanese Druze leader surrendering to Hizbollah, "Same guys that gave you Gaza gave you this. Do you think any of them are smart enough to see what they've done?"

Bush pledges support for Lebanese army in Hizbullah battle

In the Guardian, here

"......Analysts said these positions would be used in confrontations with Israel. "Hizbullah will very soon spread all over. They will not leave any strategic part of the country in the hands of their so-called enemies," said Ahmad Moussali, a professor at the American University of Beirut and an expert on Islamist groups.....

Despite calls for a ceasefire, Hizbullah fighters defeated militants loyal to the Druze leader Waleed Jumblatt in clashes starting on Sunday night, gaining control of Niha, a village in the southern Chouf mountains, 25 miles south-east of Beirut...."Hizbullah have shown they are not interested in unseating Jumblatt but rather opening a possible supply route between Bekaa and the southern suburbs," ....

"The Syrian option"

In YNETnews, here

".... We do not know the price Syria will be willing to pay for a secret pledge that Israel would not do a thing to prevent Lebanon’s annexation to Syria, but it is worthwhile looking into it – this price may be Syrian willing to renounce its claims for the Golan...."

Can Israel Survive for Another 60 Years? Perhaps, but not necessarily as a Jewish state

Christopher Hitchens in SLATE, here

"Surrendering to Hizballah"

Andrew Lee Butter, in TIME, here

".....Jumblatt, a top American ally, is under virtual house arrest. After the lightning speed with which opposition Hizballah fighters defeated government supporters in a six hour battle on Thursday — only to vanish a few hours later......"I am a hostage now in my home in Beirut," he said over the telephone to his rival Nabih Berri, ...."Tell [Hizballah leader] Sayeed Hassan Nasrallah I lost the battle and he wins. So let's sit and talk to reach a compromise. All that I ask is your protection.".....

.... Jumblatt is quickly coming to grips with the new political landscape. "The U.S. has failed in Lebanon and they have to admit it,"

Outgunned Lebanese army no longer seen as neutral

Hannah Allam in McClatchy's, here

"We've heard complaints from people who wanted law and order established and who wanted the military to step in and do more. We are very aware of that," said Mohamed Chatah, a senior adviser to Saniora. "But I wouldn't characterize what has happened as 'siding with' (the opposition)."

Politicians, analysts and fighters, however, said the army's performance suggests that the better-armed Hezbollah has struck a deal with Lebanese military brass. At the same time, there's bafflement that the army hasn't been able to defend the government despite receiving more than $400 million in U.S. aid since 2006.....

Allegations of complicity with the opposition could jeopardize the Western-backed ruling bloc's endorsement of army commander Gen. Michel Suleiman, a Maronite Christian, for president...."

Iran Brokers Truce in Iraq ...

In FARS (Iran), via Judah Grunstein at WPR, here

".... Seriously, though, the disadvantage we face in this particular info ops battle is that our role in Iraq is out in the open, so it reinforces Tehran's anti-American narrative. On the other hand, Iran's role -- in particular, its support for the very same Shiite factions we're busy propping up -- is largely covert. The more it is revealed, the more it serves to undermine Washington's anti-Iranian narrative...."

Time for a smaller "Grand Bargain"

Three parties, highly representative of their communities and of the People of Lebanon in general, namely, Michel Aoun's "Tayyar", Rafik Hariri's (Saad needs to show his true mettle) "Future" & Hassan Nasrallah's "Hezbollah." All three, represent the new realities in Lebanon and all three were either willingly absent or unformed during the civil strife that engulfed Lebanon from 1975 to 1989...

The events of the last 5 days offer a historic opportunity for a smaller "grand Bargain" in Lebanon ... to outline the perimeters of Lebanon for the decades' ahead. Saad Hariri must capitalize on the fact that Hezbollah will not "go all the way" in their turning of the tables. He discovered, that the hard way, ...that the hot heads in his movement, brought havoc on "his people", and should as such face the realities that his alliances with the past criminals will only bring further acrimony and loss of credibility (not speaking of the loss of support to the extremist Sunnis ...). Hezbollah on the other hand, should refrain from pushing the Sunnis to further despair and humiliation ... This can only be achieved through opening a serious "defressoire" through dialogue between the two sectarian monolith of the Muslim Faith...

Hezbollah owes Michel Aoun a whole lot. The General remained unwavering in his alliance, endured a lot yet was resilient enough to see "change" peek at Lebanon. The man proved to be steadier in his alliances (under duress) than most players. Any attempt to drive a wedge between him and Hezbollah or to marginalize him, has failed.

It is time to do away with the criminally insane flanks, with the pathetically unrepresentative middles and with the heavy burdens of the past.......

(UPDATE: By the looks of it (his press conference of May 13) Saad looks confused and pushed to confrontation by Michele Sison...)

Open Thread: