Saturday, May 24, 2008

On 'flipping' Syria, prospects for peace

"Guess what. When the Syrians were negotiating a final-status peace with first Rabin and then Peres in the period 1994-96, they were looking at something exactly like that same model: (Sinai) a complete Israeli withdrawal back to the lines of June 4, 1967, in return for an internationally monitored demilitarization arrangement for Golan plus considerable economic benefits for Israel..."

Dennis Ross to Al Hayat: "Syria-Israel & Doha agreement are evidence of US eclipse..."

In Al Hayat, here











Sistani's "sources" deny anti-US Fatwas ....

In KulilIraq, here

Friday, May 23, 2008

As 'some' prepare to finally vacate, Beirut regains a sense of hope & normalcy...

".....Will this Summer of Love last? Perhaps. But Lebanon's sectarian system is built on balance among all the countries religious groups, where change is almost always violent. Hizballah will soon have a disproportionate amount of power -- a veto in the cabinet, a favorable electoral law that could give the opposition a majority in the next presidential election, and in case it ever feels threatened, the country's only effective military force. Hizballah needs to be magnanimous in victory, or sooner or later, the scales will tip back."

With an eye to "the era after President Bush", the Middle East moves ahead...

"......leaders in the Middle East, both friend and foe, are now calculating with an eye to the era after President Bush — who visited Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt this month with little visible effect......
.....Bush has cut his administration out of the game. Under Bush, U.S. diplomats have had few substantive discussions with Iran, Syria, Hezbollah or the militant Palestinian group Hamas, which in 2006 won elections that the White House had pushed for....
.....Murphy, referring to Lebanon, said: "Maybe we didn't do quite enough, and said too much."
Firas Maksad, a well-connected Lebanese-American analyst in Washington, said U.S.-backed Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and members of his March 14 movement urged the Bush administration not to take too public a role, for fear that they'd be labeled American lackeys....."

"... now, now, go back to sleep Mr. President!..."

Baabda Presidential Palace awaits "President Michel Aoun" says Al Jazeera!

I hope Al Jazeera was not responsible for printing invitation cards.....
قصر بعبدا الرئاسي ينتظر العماد ميشال عون بعد انتخابه من قبل البرلمان

If Mr. Bush cannot use his remaining months in office to 'encourage diplomacy' , he can at least get out of the way!

New York Times Editorial, here

...Top of "Burj Dubai"....

BAE & Bandar in the news ....

"Col Lang,......."I wanted to flag your attention, and the attention of your readers, to some new dramatic developments in a story you reported last year. The U.S. Department of Justice is agressively pursuing their case against BAE Systems, the British arms company, which is accused of paying billions of dollars in bribes to Saudi officials, including the former Ambassador in Washington, Prince Bandar. Bandar alone is said to have received over $2 billion in BAE kickbacks, for his role in the "Al Yamamah" deal between Britain and Saudi Arabia (I hear that the actual figure paid to Bandar and some of his henchmen was closer to $10 billion). On May 12, two top executives of BAE, Chairman Mike Turner and an outside director who is also vice chairman of Barclay's Bank, were detained by U.S. officials as they arrived at Houston and Newark airports, respectively. They were handed grand jury subpoenas, and had their laptops, cell phones and papers temporarily confiscated. The latest from the DOJ is that the career prosecutors are so furious at the British government's stonewalling, that they are threatening RICO prosecutions against BAE. Remember, that the real story behind the BAE "Al Yamamah" scandal is that, under the arms-for-oil barter deal, the British accumulated well-over $100 billion, in off-the-books, offshore funds, that have been used to finance covert operations, for the past 23 years (the deal was first signed in 1985, and has been regularly updated ever since). The other nagging matter around the BAE case is that Prince Bandar "inadvertently" helped finance the 9/11 attacks, through funds provided by him and his wife to two Saudi intelligence operative in California, who, in turn, bankrolled two of the hijackers. This sordid tale is spelled out in Philip Shenon's admirable expose of the 9/11 Commission investigation, in the 2008 book, The Commission--The Uncensored History of the 9/11 Investigation. My own sources have independently corroborated much of what Shenon reports. For their part, the Saudis and the British are not at all happy about what is going on at the DOJ. The Sunday Telegraph and other British papers have been ranting about the "heavy handed" treatment of the BAE execs, and they worry about a deeper rift, going into the upcoming G-8 summit in Japan in early July. A treaty is pending before the U.S. Senate, that would give British arms manufacturers equal access to Pentagon contracts, and a hearing was held this past week on the treaty at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Biden, Lugar and Feingold all expressed apprehension over the treaty, and there is fear that the BAE flap will further complicate its passage. Again, the biggest aspect of the BAE/"Al Yamamah" story is the offshore fund. To summarize: BAE delivered about $40 billion in arms and services to Saudi Arabia. BAE padded the bills substantially, up to nearly $80 billion. The pad was used, in part, to bribe Saudi officials who helped swing the deal, including Bandar and Prince Turki bin-Khaled, a top official of the Saudi Ministry of Defense. That part is fully detailed in the Guardian and other British coverage of the BAE scandal, going back three or four years. What is not covered in the British press is the fact that Saudi Arabia paid for the arms with oil. The oil was sold on the spot market, and this generated an estimated (in current dollars) $160 billion in cash. I am told by former U.S. Treasury Department officials that the funds generated from the oil sales, after BAE got their cut, went into offshore bank accounts. Those funds were invested by the usual hedge funds, etc. in places like the Cayman Islands, BVI, etc., and the profits over the past 23 years from those investments, multiplied the size of the fund tremendously. I look forward to any comments on this very big story, that has never gotten adequate media or Congressional attention, in my humble opinion. ...Harper"L2ca04fy4lcazcj1r2carq2sueca1x2lf1c

Clinton in Talks With Obama About VP Slot ....

CNN via Bloomberg, here

Divisions Surface Between US & Israel on 'Strategy'...

Jerusalem's Talks With Damascus Highlight Tensions
By JAY SOLOMON
May 23, 2008
WASHINGTON -- Dramatic shifts in Middle East diplomacy during the past week, including a political deal in Lebanon and Israeli-Syrian peace talks, are exposing significant strategic divisions between the U.S. and its closest regional ally, Israel.
The tensions, described in interviews with U.S. and Israeli officials in recent months, counter the widespread assumption that the Bush and Israeli governments march in lockstep on foreign policy. They also provide insight into why these new diplomatic initiatives may unravel ultimately, regional analysts said.
Dramatic shifts recently in Middle East diplomacy, including a political deal in Lebanon and Israeli peace talks with Syria, are exposing significant strategic divisions between the U.S. and Israel. WSJ's Jay Solomon reports. (May 22)
The most profound strategic division between Washington and Jerusalem concerns Israel's engagement of Syrian President Bashar Assad. In revealing peace talks with Damascus this week, Israeli officials voiced a determination to peel Syria away from Iran, its principal regional ally. Among the goals is to undermine the two states' support for extremist groups Hezbollah and Hamas, which operate on Israel's borders.
But U.S. officials say the move undermines their efforts to punish Damascus. The Pentagon accuses Syria, along with Iran, of backing the continued flow of foreign fighters and munitions into Iraq, a charge Damascus denies. And U.S. diplomats believe President Assad has actively sought to topple Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora through his support of Hezbollah and other Syrian allies inside Lebanon. A United Nations-backed investigation implicated Syrian intelligence officials in the 2005 murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
Mr. Siniora's government agreed Wednesday to a power-sharing deal that many analysts believe significantly strengthens the power of Hezbollah and other Syrian and Iranian allies inside Lebanon. Members of Mr. Siniora's government have complained Western support for Beirut has been inadequate to compete with the military help provided to Hezbollah by Damascus and Tehran.
The Israelis "don't seem to understand that our interests and their interests in Lebanon aren't aligned," one senior U.S official working on the Middle East said. "In the short-term, the Israelis want to remove a threat on their border. But they don't care about" the fate of Lebanon's government.
The State Department's point man on the Middle East, Assistant Secretary of State David Welch, said widening the Middle East peace dialog could be a "good thing" for the region. But he also stressed that Washington has "reservations about the foreign-policy behavior of Syria, and its internal politics as well."
Speaking Thursday, Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni reflected the strategy in outlining her government's requirements for a peace deal. Syria must understand that peace "involves their complete renunciation of support for terror in Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran," she said.
Israeli officials say Syria's secular government is fundamentally averse to its strategic alliance with Iran's Islamist rulers. They say Damascus needs to be offered economic and diplomatic incentives to offset the assistance supplied by Iran. The talks will also focus on Israel giving control of the Golan Heights region back to Damascus.
Israelis officials are fearful of facing a three-front war involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Syria on the Golan Heights. "Maybe it's time to employ the carrot to remove [Syria] from the axis of evil," then deputy chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky, said in Washington last fall.
In recent months, Washington has moved to exact new financial sanctions against many of President Assad's closest business associates and political allies. And the U.S. has worked with Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia and Egypt, to isolate Damascus diplomatically in a bid to gain its assistance in stabilizing the region. Saudi Arabia and Egypt didn't send top leaders to the Arab Summit in Damascus this March, to snub President Assad.
Divisions between the Bush administration and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government on Syria may imperil the peace initiative. President Assad has said that such a deal is impossible without the active support of Washington. Damascus believes that American aid and the removal of U.S. sanctions on Syria would have to be part of any long-term agreement.
Bush administration officials have offered no indication that the U.S. is preparing to directly broker Syrian-Israeli talks. Instead, they say, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will focus her remaining months in office on supporting the Israeli-Palestinian peace track.
Some Syrian officials have said that a new U.S. administration that comes to power next January could be more supportive of such a peace tract. The two leading candidates to replace President Bush, Senators Barack Obama and John McCain, both released statements saying they supported Israel's position.
The view in the region, by contrast, is that Israel and the U.S. are still tightly tethered. Suleyman Haddad, the head of the foreign-affairs committee in Syria's parliament, said Syria won't agree to any conditions in return for a peace deal, such as giving up support for Hamas or Hezbollah.
He said if Israel wanted peace with Syria it "should give up all these unattainable conditions." Talking about the talks, Mr. Haddad said he didn't believe Israel would do anything "without instructions from and cooperation with the United States."



Sistani issuing Fatwas declaring that armed resistance against U.S.-led foreign troops is permissible...

In AP, here

The edicts, or fatwas, by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani suggest he seeks to sharpen his long-held opposition to American troops and counter the populist appeal of his main rivals, firebrand Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army militia.
.......For American officials, he represents a key stabilizing force in Iraq for refusing to support a full-scale Shiite uprising against U.S.-led forces or Sunnis .....
....The subtle shift could point to his growing impatience with the continued American presence more than five years after the U.S.-led invasion...
.......young Shiite men belonging to the "Troops of the Ayatollahs" (Jund al-Marja`iyyah) militia that protects the leading Shiite clerics in the Middle Euphrates have been imploring Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani for a fatwa or formal legal ruling about whether it is permissible to attack US and other foreign troops..."

Un retour à la normale s'esquisse à Beyrouth après l'accord de Doha

"....La majorité a cédé sur l'octroi à l'opposition de la minorité de blocage au sein du futur gouvernement parce que le mandat de ce dernier ne sera que d'un an. L'opposition a également obtenu des concessions quant au découpage des circonscriptions électorales. Alors que le principe adopté est celui des petites circonscriptions (le caza), les opposants ont obtenu deux exceptions : dans l'est et le sud du pays, bastions du Hezbollah et de son allié le mouvement Amal, tous les deux chiites. Le nouveau découpage de Beyrouth satisfait principalement la communauté arménienne qui se sentait lésée..."

Thursday, May 22, 2008

McCain Pastor: Islam Is a 'Conspiracy of Spiritual Evil'

McCain sought the support of Pastor Rod Parsley of the World Harvest Church of Columbus, Ohio at a critical time in his campaign in February, when former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was continuing to draw substantial support from the Christian right..... [Parsley] who describes Islam as "anti-Christ" and Mohammed as "the mouthpiece of a conspiracy of spiritual evil."
m11.jpg

Why Qatar is emerging as Middle East peacemaker....

Blanford in CSM, here
"....Qatar is in the unusual position of having a foot in both camps. It remains a key ally of Washington, hosting the Al-Udeid Air Base, the largest US military facility in the region. It enjoys economic ties to Israel, and Israeli officials often participate in meetings and conferences in Doha. Yet Qatar also is Syria's closest Arab friend, investing millions of dollars in major property development projects and providing diplomatic support..."

West backs Lebanon government "capitulation" to Hezbollah ...

No, Mr. Shamir "Members of the Shi'ite organization will account for one-third of the government ministers, plus an additional portfolio"... that is not true. The Opposition as a whole (including Gen. Michel Aoun's, a Christian, bloc and others ....) will have 1/3+1 of the seats in the Council of Ministers! .........In Haaretz, here
"....One potential stumbling block over the final wording of the statement centers around the issue of whether to include references to prior Security Council resolutions passed in relation to Lebanon in recent years, including Resolution 1701, which brought an end to the Second Lebanon War.
Another Security Council resolution that is to be mulled is 1559, which includes a clause stipulating the decommissioning of weapons belonging to the various militia forces in the country. The U.S. and France insist on including mention of the resolution in the statement. Libya has stated its opposition, while Russia has also expressed reservations......"

Administration “violated” a law requiring notification to intel-committees when it took 8 months to inform the about alleged Syrian nuclear reactor..

“Just hours before a highly-orchestrated public roll-out of the previously classified intelligence, the president finally sent briefers to the committee,” the panel report states. “The delay was inexcusable and violated the National Security Act of 1947, which requires that the executive branch keep Congress ‘fully and currently informed’ of all intelligence activities..."

Is WINEP preparing Americans for an attack on IRAN?

WINEP's Clawson & Eisenstadt in an interview with Haaretz, here
(*) ...... Shihab missiles are not considered particularly reliable. Iran deploys them without having done hardly any significant tests. Second, the Shihab's guidance system is not very accurate....
(*).......no guarantee that Hezbollah will react automatically.....
(*)....... its reactions in the past to attacks against it, or its important interests, is mixed.......Not only did Iran not respond, but also the incident hastened its decision to agree to a cease-fire ...
(*)........what would be deemed a success? If the attack does destroy the nuclear facilities, and it leads to a broad consensus in Iran that nuclear weapons are dangerous........

Syria-Israel: No indication of joint work on a secret nuclear facility destroyed by Israel

"...but even in retrospect the available record presents no indication of joint work on a secret nuclear facility destroyed by Israel ..."
In other words, assuming the allegations of clandestine nuclear cooperation are true, open source intelligence provided no clues concerning the activity..."

WINEP: "Washington should reevaluate it support of the Lebanese government: Forget the Army for now!...

'Forget the Army' (he says in a 180 degrees reversal of his last essay: "With so much at stake, now is the time for Washington to use whatever leverage it might have to encourage the LAF to fulfill its national responsibility to protect Lebanese institutions"- May 9)..... and Schenker today, at WINEP, here
"....For Washington, these developments should prompt a reevaluation of how it supports the Lebanese government. Since 2005, the administration's strategy to strengthen Beirut has been primarily to support the LAF: from 2005 to 2008, .....more than $250 million in military assistance to the army..... However, during the crisis, the LAF did nothing to protect the government and national institutions because of the fear that intervention would cause the army to fragment along sectarian lines. Support for the LAF is a long-term project, but will do little in the short run to help U.S. allies in Beirut.
Given the stakes, it is imperative that Washington move beyond rhetoric and develop effective measures to support its pro-Western allies. Particularly important will be ways to enhance the electoral prospects of Siniora and his political allies in advance of the 2009 parliamentary vote. In the meantime, Washington should continue to work with the Lebanese government, avoiding contact with Hizballah ministers -- but working with lower level ministry officials -- as it did in 2005-2006..."

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

US must tolerate outreach to Hezbollah, Syria

ANNE GEARAN,

Israel-Syria peace deal could threaten Iran, Hezbollah

Paul Salem (as usual) has his apples and oranges a bit mixed .... it reminds me of that joke an 'influential' Arab ambassador in Washington told me about "consultants", the likes of our dear friend Paul ....and it reminds me of a meeting between A VERY influential head of a region's "Mukhabarat", with a former Agency guy, when the first coyly told the former Agency guy that "there are certain people (wink) in town who wants us to overly slip Tehran's way, a a bit too much for my taste." The Mukhabarati guy was sincere, but the Agency guy read a bit too much into it, as a storm was packing force. These were the good old days between that apparatus & the Agency, when for no sound reasons, the Washington nomenklatura decided to 'terminate' that relationship and go into an anomalous crescendo................. anyhow, the story, in McClatchy's, here
".....Salem, who recently spent time in Damascus talking to negotiators involved in the talks, said there is a growing unease among some Syrian leaders about the influence of Iran in the Middle East.
"Peace between Syria and Israel would cause a serious rupture in the Syrian-Iranian relationship as it would represent a fundamental parting of the ways," said Salem."

In a 'shift', US Delays Report on Iran Arms....

The military had initially planned to publicize the report several weeks ago but instead turned the dossier over to the Iraqi government .....(Talbani "dismisses" US allegations, here)
"The timing of the brief...on Iranian interference has yet to be nailed down, but we anticipate briefing sometime in the future," said Rear Adm. Patrick Driscoll. Adm. Driscoll said there were "lots of reasons" for the delay but declined further comment.......
Another military official said in an interview that the report could be delayed significantly, noting that it was "in the hands of the [Iraqi central government]."

An agreement stops the fighting in Lebanon but boosts the Opposition & Hizbullah

“Today we have no victor, no vanquished, but one winner, which is Lebanon,” declared Marwan Hammadeh, a cabinet minister loyal to the pro-Western majority coalition in parliament known as “March 14th”, which embraces the dominant Sunni and Druze parties as well as liberals and right-wing Christians. Yet it appeared that most of the gains had been made by the opposition, an alliance led by Hizbullah, the Shia party-cum-militia, but also including a powerful Christian party and pro-Syrian leftists. This reflects changed realities on the ground, following the swift but brief take-over on May 9th of loyalist districts in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, by opposition gunmen. It was this dramatic event that had prompted urgent intervention by Arab foreign ministers...."

... and the LOSERS are?

Syria and Israel: tactical advantage

Jon Alterman (CSIS) writes this for MESH, here
"....While each side has powerful reasons to negotiate, however, there are equally powerful reasons not to conclude a deal. Such reasons start with the political weakness of each leader, who would be hard pressed to make monumental concessions to a longstanding enemy whose ultimate intentions are disputed. The Bush Administration’s keen disinterest in engaging Syria also dims hopes, as one of the prizes the Syrians seek is U.S. acceptance. A year from now, with a new U.S. president and likely a new Israeli Prime Minister, the situation might be different, and in the interim, there are certainly common understandings that can be reached..."

....Israel-Syria confirm peace talks

In the BBC here
Laura Rosen adds, "Two former Israeli foreign ministry officials explained the logic of such talks to me. "It’s a fair question, and other former Israeli officials are pressing further, arguing that Israel should pursue peace with Syria, its last bordering state with which it does not have a peace agreement. Among officials urging Washington to back diplomacy with Syria are former Israeli foreign ministry and intelligence official David Kimche and former Israeli foreign ministry director-general Alon Liel, who had been pursuing a track-two dialogue mediated by Turkey until Washington pressured the Israeli government to cut off the channel. 'One of the reasons that I believe we should explore the possibility of speaking with Syria on an official level is that this body needs oxygen,' Liel told me in February in Washington. 'We need a real process, and the Syrians are open to do it.'”

Lebanese Agree ...

Al Jazeera/English, here ......Our take: Bahij Tabbarah for Premiership? Aoun: Abou Jamra, Pakradounian, Skaff, Arslan & Bassil? Hariri bloc will have to do with old (Fatfat & co...) and bring in new blood, as for Jumblatt, he will have to away with Hamadeh... as for President Suleiman: Nazem El Khoury, Michel Murr ...? We hear that Suleiman Frangieh wishes to stay out of the NUG, and relinquishes as such his share to Gen. Aoun.

Colonel Lang has this 'epitaph':

"Another day of joy (irony alert) for the likes of Friedman, Brooks and Rice. What was it Brooks wrote last week? "What possible coalition could Hizbullah participate in in Lebanon?" (paraphrase)

The funny thing is that we Americans and Saudis pushed the Lebanese so hard and so obviously that they finally had no choice but to make a deal (always a thing the Lebanese can do).

I am going on a road trip or the next two days but I wanted to throw this ball up in the air for you all to play with in my absence. pl

ps. Syria and Israel are going to make another "day of joy" for the Flatlanders. Do you all remember them among the minor and oft forgotten peoples whom Gulliver visited?" pl

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Doha: Solution in sight? Stay tuned Wednesday May 21 at 10:00AM Doha time

مراسل الجزيرة: علي حسن خليل النائب بالبرلمان ومساعد لرئيس البرلمان اللبناني يعلن الاقتراب من حل للأزمة اللبنانية في محادثات الدوحة

Iran Proposal for "constructive negotiations"...

Via War&Piece, here (in English) and Nukes& Spooks has this on Secretary Gates' testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee, and comments by Senator Spector, here
"I've had an opportunity to talk to the president about it directly. And I believe he needs to hear more from people like you than from people like me, but from both of us, and that it's not appeasement, and that the analogy to Neville Chamberlain is wrong. And we've got one government to deal with there (Iran)," Specter continued. "I've had a chance to talk to the last three Iranian ambassadors to the U.N. And I think there is an opportunity for dialogue. But I think we have to be a little courageous about it and take a chance, because the alternatives are very, very, very bleak."



Siniora's Adviser: "The Armenians want "rights" in Lebanon.. while they have only crumbs in Armenia"

Political eunuch, DOCTOR Radwan Al Sayyed (on Wardeh's Voice of Lebanon Radio Program), Fuad Siniora's senior adviser (for?) lambasted Lebanese-Armenians for asking for a fair share of the Lebanese polity ... while he described Michel Aoun's 'presence' as made of political "remains"..... having gone through the whole roster of Opposition figure, Hezbollah, Frangieh ..... via Hafez Al Assad...
لفت مستشار رئيس الحكومة فؤاد السنيورة، رضوان السيد ان هذه هي المحاولة الثالثة التي تطرح في مؤتمر الدوحة، وكلما وافق أحد على صيغة يرفضها الآخر، مشيرا انه لا يظن ان هذه المحاولة ستنجح لان المعارضة لديها خطة بعدم انتخاب رئيس للجمهورية.
السيد وفي حديث الى "صوت لبنان"، اكد ان المطلوب من أجل إبقاء رئيس كتلة "التغيير والاصلاح" النائب العماد ميشال عون على قيد الحياة سياسيا يحتم ان لا ينتخب رئيس، ولو انتخب لكان سافر الى مالطا او الى اي بلد آخر. وشدد السيد انه لن يقبل بالمثالثة في بيروت بعد ان اخذت المعارضة تقسيماتها الطائفية المناسبة في مناطقها، فهي اليوم تريد حصة لا تملكها في بيروت، مؤكدا الى انهم عندما يقولون بيروت للجميع، يشيرون بأنها ليست لسكانها. وسأل كيف يريد الارمني الذي لا يملك شيئا في ارمينيا، الثلث في بيروت، وأردف السيد انه لم يعد يفهم شيئا، ولا يظن ان "حزب الله" يريد ان يتحول الى حام للأقليات العرقية والدينية.

Fouad Siniora — "once a poster boy for Mr. Bush" ...was the recipient of very little real help

In the NYTimes, here

"Disappearing act: White House denial makes Jerusalem Post vanish"

Laura Rosen, in MoJo, here
"....There was an article on the Jerusalem Post website this morning titled "'Bush intends to