"Open conflict between Shi'ite & Sunni is creating unique opportunities for Israel"

Frmr Mossad chief and ambassadors ask: What is Israel's role in changing Mideast?  Haaretz 

"... Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan headlined a major panel Wednesday focusing on the role of Israel in a changing Middle East, at the fifth presidential conference in Jerusalem.The panel, scheduled for the second day of President Shimon Peres' Facing Tomorrow conference, considers steps Israel should take amid the upheaval of the Arab Spring and the violent civil war in Syria.
Other speakers on the panel include former ambassadors Israeli and American ambassadors including Dore Gold, Daniel Kurtzer and Itamar Rabinovich, and Sima Shine, the head of the Strategic Division at Israel’s Ministry of Strategic Affairs.
LIVE BLOG:13:22 P.M. Dagan: IDF can protect Israel from any border . If the political need will be as such that the Jordan valley will not be in Israeli hands. Using security for political reason is a mistake.
13:10 P.M.: Dagan: Should we wait for Hamas to take over the West Bank? The sooner we enter dialogue the better for Israel.
13:06 P.M. Dagan: The peace process with the Palestinians is a necessity for Israel.  Abu Mazen has opposition in his own community, without creating backing for him in the Arab world he can't sign.
13:01 P.M. Kurtzer: Let's say you agree that this is not the time for final status, why would you dig yourself into a deeper hole with settlements every single day? The Arab world is now ready to deal with the state of Israel with certain parameters.
12:59 P.M. Itamar Rabinovich: It is damaging to say two-state solution is dead.
12:58 P.M. Dore Gold: The time is not right for a full final status agreement. We are facing too common threats, the Iranian threat, if we are smart we can build a coalition with Sunni forces.
12:50: On Iran, Dagan says: There is a dialogue, even with [Supreme leader Ayatollah] Khamenei. The leader cannot rule out and disregard population.
He adds: The Syrian issue is critical for Iran – Hezbollah is important tool for them to get political impact in the region.
12:40: Meir Dagan says the political processes in the region are continuing, adding that is very hard to define outcome. Different alliances have formed, he says, and radical elements have disappeared completely
."I believe the situation is not becoming worse. We should not sit and wait but take initiative and create opportunities," says Dagan. "Israel's interest, the Gulf countries and even the Palestinians and Egypt, lies together. What we are seeing in last decade is an open conflict between Shi'ite and Sunni that is tearing up Arab and Muslim world.This is creating unique opportunities for Israel to seek different alliances and reassure our presence in Middle East," he says. "I don't like every aspect of Arab Peace Initiative – but as starting point to sit down and discuss – I believe it is a vital necessity for Israel to do it."
12:34 A.M. Daniel Kurtzer: There are two examples of peace treaties with Arab neighbors that have provided Israel with degree of security you did not have before. You ended up with peace partners. May be to Israel's advantage to take initative to achieve recognized borders."

Lebanon: "Forced labor, withholding of passports, nonpayment of wages, threat of arrest & deportation, restrictions on movement, physical assault. .... & the government’s 'Artiste visa' program"

"... Lebanon is a source and destination country for women and children who are subjected to forced labor and sex trafficking. The country is also a transit point for Eastern European women and children subjected to sex trafficking in other Middle Eastern countries. Women from Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Ethiopia, Kenya, Bangladesh, Nepal, Madagascar, Congo, Togo, Cameroon, and Nigeria, who travel to Lebanon with the assistance of recruitment agencies to work in domestic service, are often subjected to conditions indicative of forced labor, including withholding of passports, nonpayment of wages, threat of arrest and deportation, restrictions on movement, verbal abuse, and physical assault. .... The government’s artiste visa program facilitates the entry of women from Eastern Europe, the Dominican Republic, Morocco, and Tunisia on three-month visas to work as dancers in Lebanon’s adult entertainment industry ...  Some Syrian women may be forced to engage in street prostitution, and underage Syrian girls are reportedly brought to Lebanon for the purpose of prostitution, including through the guise of early marriage....
The Government of Lebanon does not fully comply with the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking; however, it is making significant efforts to do so. Despite these modest measures, the government did not show evidence of increasing overall efforts to address human trafficking over the previous reporting period; therefore, Lebanon is placed on Tier 2 Watch List for a second consecutive year...."

STATE Dept. Report on Human trafficking: 'Saudi Arabia: Servitude, deprivation of food, sexual abuse & ... forced prostitution!'

"... Saudi Arabia is a destination country for men and women subjected to forced labor and, to a lesser extent, forced prostitution. Men and women from Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Vietnam, Burma, and many other countries voluntarily travel to Saudi Arabia as domestic workers or low-skilled laborers, and many subsequently face conditions indicative of involuntary servitude, including nonpayment of wages, long working hours without rest, deprivation of food, threats, physical and sexual abuse, and restrictions on movement such as the withholding of passports or confinement to the workplace.... Women, primarily from Asia and Africa, are believed to be forced into prostitution in Saudi Arabia. Some female domestic workers are reportedly kidnapped and forced into prostitution after running away from abusive employers. Children from Yemen, Nigeria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Chad, and Sudan are subjected to forced labor as beggars and street vendors in Saudi Arabia, facilitated by criminal gangs...... 

The Government of Saudi Arabia does not fully comply with the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking and is not making significant efforts to do so...."

Women, primarily from Asia and Africa, are believed to be forced into prostitution in Saudi Arabia. Some female domestic workers are reportedly kidnapped and forced into prostitution after running away from abusive employers. Children from Yemen, Nigeria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Chad, and Sudan are subjected to forced labor as beggars and street vendors in Saudi Arabia, facilitated by criminal gangs...... The Government of Saudi Arabia does not fully comply with the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking and is not making significant efforts to do so...."

Kerry's 'arguments': 'Israel did it , so can we!'

(Bloomberg) "... 5. The Israelis did it, and so can we. Kerry himself, to the best of my knowledge, hasn’t made this argument to the generals -- knowing, I assume, that it would, if nothing else, irritate them like nothing else. But others in the interventionist camp have raised the issue. Israel, has struck at Syrian targets three times recently, using standoff weapons fired from over the border. Israel thinks that it made its point: There will be consequences if Syria transfers weapons and delivery systems to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Dempsey, in the White House situation room last week, argued that in order to launch an effective attack on regime targets, the U.S. would have to first suppress Syria’s air-defense system, which would require at least 700 sorties. Interventionists tend to believe that the Pentagon -- and the White House -- are using this an excuse for inaction.6. The rebels aren’t the lunatics the Pentagon believes them to be. The State Department has been working for some time with the more moderate leaders among the fractured and disputatious rebel alliance...."

Reuters: "Hardline Syrian islamists moved against (Europe's favorite, vetted) rebels , confiscated their weapons & marginalized them.."

"... ALEPPO, Syria (Reuters) - ...  they came to number 2,000 men, he said, here in the northern city of Aleppo. Then, virtually overnight, they collapsed.

Omar's group, Ghurabaa al-Sham, wasn't defeated by the government. It was dismantled by a rival band of revolutionaries - hardline Islamists.
The Islamists moved against them ... confiscated the brigade's weapons, ammunition and cars, Omar said....  The group was effectively marginalized in the struggle to overthrow Syria's President Bashar al-Assad. Around 100 fighters are all that remain of his force, Omar said.
It's a pattern repeated elsewhere in the country. During a 10-day journey through rebel-held territory in Syria, Reuters journalists found that radical Islamist units are sidelining more moderate groups that do not share the Islamists' goal of establishing a supreme religious leadership in the country.
The moderates, often underfunded, fragmented and chaotic, appear no match for Islamist units, which include fighters from organizations designated "terrorist" by the United States.
The Islamist ascendancy has amplified the sectarian nature of the war between Sunni Muslim rebels and the Shi'ite supporters of Assad. It also presents a barrier to the original democratic aims of the revolt and calls into question whether the United States, which announced practical support for the rebels last week, can ensure supplies of weapons go only to groups friendly to the West.... Most of the rebel groups in Syria were formed locally and have little coordination with others. The country is dotted with bands made up of army defectors, farmers, engineers and even former criminals.
Many pledge allegiance to the notion of a unified Free Syrian Army (FSA). But on the ground there is little evidence to suggest the FSA actually exists as a body at all..., ..., ...
Where the government forces did cede ground, Aleppo's residents did not welcome the rebels with open arms. Most fighters were poor rural people from the countryside and the residents of Aleppo say they stole. Omar acknowledged this happened..., ..., ...
As moderate rebel groups dithered, so did their backers outside the country. Bickering among the political opposition, a collection of political exiles who have spent many years outside Syria, also presented a problem for the United States about whether there would be a coherent transition to a new government if Assad fell.
But most importantly, Western powers fear that if weapons are delivered to Syrian rebels, there would be few guarantees they would not end up with radical Islamist groups, such as Jabhat al-Nusra, who might one day use them against Western interests..."

Crooke: "Britain & France risk being lured — by the sectarian Gulf clamour, fearful of impending 'Sunni defeat' — into finding themselves ever more allied with Sunni proxies of al-Qaida"

Alastair Crooke in the Guardian;

"... Syria is already awash with weapons. But as we discovered in Afghanistan, however much is given, it is "never enough", and if the opposition begins losing, inevitably it is the west's failure to give more and better weapons that is the cause. Only with hindsight was it plain that the Afghan mujahideen's problems began when "big money" became available from donors, the conflict became "business."Reuters, on Syria, tells us nothing has changed. It reports an incident on the Turkish-Syrian border where France's recently recalled ambassador to Syria gave "a stash of brown envelopes stuffed with thousands of dollars" to "'viable' [that is, non-Al-Qaida] rebels operating in zones no longer under Bashar al-Assad's control".

A few weapons, more or less, will change nothing. Weapons will not stay with the preferred recipients: warlords will trade, as in Afghanistan. And no real shift in western policy has occurred either: the US deputy national security adviser has said there will be no escalation in the weapons supplied to the insurgents and that there will be no no-fly zones. Supplies already are at the limit of what can be safely given – and if advanced items ever were to reach al-Qaida this would be a huge 9/11 "hot button" event for the US.
Much of this is likely to be rehashed in the G8 meeting today, but Putin will denounce any escalation in arming the opposition and may threaten, as before, a counter-response. Iran's new president, Hassan Rouhani, is unlikely to change his country's policy on Syria either.
I am sure David Cameron finds the opposition fighters he meets to be decent human beings, and that he is moved to help them. But this war is complex: it directly cuts through an ancient and highly emotive and sectarian regional fault line – one that does not divide between "friends and foes" of democracy.
Britain and France risk being lured — by the heightened, sectarian Gulf clamour, fearful of impending 'Sunni defeat' — into finding themselves ever more closely allied with Sunni proxies of al-Qaida. And as these gain empowerment – as is happening – the west's contradictions can only become more apparent and bloodshed across the region increase."

“There was a palpable fear of the [Assad] regime’s triumph.”

'Syrian Army preparing to enter Qusayr' 

MEPGS; Excerpts; 

"Some veteran observers see disarray within the Administration over policy towards Syria.  Others are even more critical, calling the President’s decision to provide arms to rebels fighting the Assad regime as “disingenuous” resulting not from solid evidence that the Syrian government used chemical weapons [One Middle East diplomat called the drawn out process of obtaining proof of its use, “ a bunch of crap”] but from the realization that Assad and his allies were gaining the upper hand.  “There is no overall strategy,” complained one veteran State Department Middle East analyst, who, to be fair, is no longer directly involved in policy making.  Those who are, not surprisingly, defend what critics are calling “too little, too late.”  As one key official puts it, “As the President has said publicly, this is a very complicated problem.  And what critics are calling a lack of strategy is really a criticism that things are not going our way.”
            Still, no one doubts that the civil war waging in Syria is significant for the future of the entire region.  One analyst calls it a “fight for the Arab soul.”  Others, less dramatically, still consider it profound, one veteran analyst noting that Damascus, not Baghdad stands at the crossroads of Arab politics [Still, to hear it from some of those with intimate experience in Iraq, the Gulf countries’ view of the conflict is deeply rooted in the Iraq war experience where, in the words of one analyst, a “Shia dictatorship replaced a Sunni one.”  In fact, for the overwhelmingly Sunni Middle East, the last decade has been one of repeated Shia triumphs, most notably in Iraq but also leading to the increasing menace, as they see it, of a powerful Iran.  In their view, the rebellion against the Assad regime in Syria, aided and abetted by the Shias of Iran, the Lebanese Shia militia, Hezbollah and to a lesser extent, Iraq, is an opportunity, as one analyst puts it, “…to make the next  decade one of Sunni resurgance.”
            The fall of the key town of Qusayr to Assad’s forces, in which Hezbollah played a major role, led to panic in the Administration, according to well-placed US officials.  When it became clear that the rebels were about to be routed, an emergency “Deputies Meeting” was held at the White House on Sunday June 9.  Three days later a “Principals Meeting” was convened and from that meeting came the decision to begin providing US arms to the rebels.  “It was a political gesture made in the face of fears that the fall of Qusayr would lead to rebel setbacks in Aleppo and Homs,” says this official. “There was a palpable fear of the [Assad] regime’s triumph.” Says another US official, “There is no doubt that Qusayr was a “game changer” for us.”
            The French and British have long warned Washington that, absent strong US involvement, there was no way that a moderate opposition could emerge, let alone dominate the rebellion.  For months, both British Prime Minister Cameron and French President Hollande personally have lobbied President Obama, but to no avail.  As one US official explains, “The Europeans, recognizing that there are extremists on both sides, nevertheless look at [siding militarily with the rebels] as a humanitarian need that protects their strategic position.”  And as this official says, using more colloquial language, “They feel Assad is `sitting pretty’ as Iran, Hezbollah, Russia and China take care of business for him.”  Another US official agrees, saying, “Russia and Syria are running circles around us.”
            Hezbollah’s role, as noted above, has been key to the Assad regime’s recent military successes.  Its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is now publicly committed to Assad prevailing.  At first, some analysts thought the relatively quiet backing given by Hezbollah was the result of reluctance on their part to becoming publicly identified with a regime so unpopular with Sunni Arabs throughout the region.  And that Hezbollah had gotten involved at the behest of its long time patron, Iran. However, its full blown commitment has now led US analysts to conclude, in the words of one State Department official, “They didn’t need much of a push from Iran.”  Still, some US officials see a silver lining in Hezbollah’s alliance with the Assad regime.  Although Hezbollah represents the Shia of Lebanon, its unexpectedly strong performance against Israel in large scale fighting in 2006, made Nasrallah and his militia heroes of the entire Arab “street.”  “Their image is tarnished, to say the least,” argues one State Department official....
            The election of Hassan Rowhani has done nothing to ease Israel’s discomfort.  They see him as a potentially more acceptable “face” of Iranian radicalism but no less radical, especially on nuclear matters, than others in the regime.  This was a view certainly shared by US officials in the run up to the election with one State Department official calling the candidates “six shades of gray.”  But Rowhani’s election in the first round of voting has shaken that view among US experts..."

'Hezbollah's Necessary War of Choice in Syria'

"... Although such concerns may be justified, Hezbollah's choices reflect its own narrow set of overlapping priorities in Syria: the primacy of preserving the "Resistance Axis with Iran," Hezbollah's sense that it can neither appease increasingly militant Lebanese Sunni political forces nor reverse deepening regional Sunni-Shi'a tension, and that Shi'a communal fears as a regional minority group increasingly inform a need to create strategic depth in Syria. Taken together, these factors have led Hezbollah to a bitter conclusion: it can choose to fight Sunni forces in Syria today or fight Sunni forces in Lebanon tomorrow, should Assad fall....
While these initial losses are significant, Hezbollah can continue to absorb more combat deaths, largely thanks to the dramatic expansion of the group's armed wing in the wake of the 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah war. Compared to some 3,000 fighters in 2006, Hezbollah's current fighting strength may be estimated at around 20,000-30,000, of which some 25 percent may be full-time active duty personnel. Meanwhile, preliminary reports indicate that Hezbollah's forces in Qusayr were far more disciplined and employed superior tactics, communication, and were better coordinated than their Syrian rebel opponents. Difficult battles like the one in Qusayr against similarly committed and ideological opposition fighters ensure that tomorrow's veterans from the war in Syria will form a combat-tested Hezbollah fighting core that may complicate future engagements against the IDF, to say nothing of Lebanese or Syrian Sunni militants. ..."

The photo that shocked Lebanon: Not even the semblance of a State!

'Thugs of Salafi Sheikh al Assir en route to an aggression in the southern city of Saida. 

The Army watches!'

'Washington Is Insane'

Washington Is Insane -- Paul Craig Roberts - PaulCraigRoberts.org

Chairman of the JCS Gen. Dempsey: "War on Syria is not welcome by Pentagon!"

""... the current chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the usually mild-mannered Army General Martin Dempsey, spoke up, loudly. According to several sources, Dempsey threw a series of brushback pitches at Kerry, demanding to know just exactly what the post-strike plan would be and pointing out that the State Department didn’t fully grasp the complexity of such an operation. Dempsey informed Kerry that the Air Force could not simply drop a few bombs, or fire a few missiles, at targets inside Syria: To be safe, the U.S. would have to neutralize Syria’s integrated air-defense system, an operation that would require 700 or more sorties. At a time when the U.S. military is exhausted, and when sequestration is ripping into the Pentagon budget, Dempsey is said to have argued that a demand by the State Department for precipitous military action in a murky civil war wasn’t welcome."

Chemical weapons or not, Obama decided to send stuff to Syria's insurgents "weeks ago"!

"...Despite official statements by the Obama administration that a decision to arm the rebels was made on June 13, preparations were seen by McClatchy on the ground days earlier. In addition to the 300 U.S. Marines that Jordanian officials said were currently stationed along Jordan’s northern border with Syria, meetings were held between Syrian rebels and U.S. officials more than 10 days ago to establish what type of weapons the White House is willing to provide.Jordanian officials also have said that those Marines had no connection to the exercises currently being run by the U.S. and Jordanian militaries, though they were brought into the country under the guise of being part of the “Eager Lion” exercises. Regional analysts and officials have said that while those exercises are touted as a “multilateral relationship-building” measure, on the ground they are widely seen as the U.S. “flexing its muscles” and laying the groundwork for future maneuvers.
“The U.S. has been preparing this for some time. So it is very clear to us, here on the ground in Jordan, that the Obama decision to arm the rebels was made weeks ago rather than days ago,” a Jordanian diplomatic official told McClatchy in an off-the-record briefing... though the gesture was often called “too little too late.”
Like the Jordanian official, the various officials, rebel leaders and others who spoke to McClatchy did not want to be quoted by name because of the sensitivity of the issue.
Syrian rebels, said one European official, had repeatedly traveled to Jordan to try and plead their case with the diplomatic community and had pressed the need for a no-fly zone and heavy weapons. The official added that there was “very little appetite” left to arm the rebels at this stage, especially given what he called the “increasing presence of radical Islamist groups in Syria.”
“The assessments being made are that at this stage, the arming of the rebels only ensures one thing – that the fighting will drag on for years to come,” said the European official.
Syrian rebels, meanwhile, have said that it is still unclear if the U.S. will provide what they call “a high-enough impact weapon.”... ..."

'G-8 calls for removal of Al Qaeda fighters in Syria, but doesn't mention Assad's fate'

"... The leaders of major industrial nations including the U.S. and Russia said in a Group of Eight declaration that they are united in wanting a negotiated and peaceful end to the Syrian civil war that will produce a government "that inspires public confidence," but they did not call on Syrian President Bashar Assad to step down...
Russia refused to back a declaration that made such a goal explicit.
Tuesday's G-8 declaration also participants in any peace talks must agree to expel Al Qaeda-linked fighters from Syria. ..."

'Sounds like "check" to me. "Mate" is coming'

"...In any event, Russia has made it clear now that it will not accept a phony conference in which the Syrian government show up to surrender  Sounds like "check" to me.  "Mate" is coming. ..."

"Never Mind the Guns, Half of Syria's 'Non-Lethal' Aid Is Stuck on U.S. Shelves"

"... That's raised some question as to how long it will take any new military aid to reach the fractured country..."

Hamas hurries to patch things with Hezbollah

"... One source told Al-Monitor on June 10, "Following this tension, Hamas leaders in Lebanon contacted Hezbollah leaders and an urgent meeting was held between the two sides. Hamas strongly denied that Palestinian fighters affiliated with the movement had participated in the fighting in Syria." In addition, the source offered, "Following these high-level contacts, which involved Lebanese politicians, the two sides agreed that Hezbollah would back down on its demand that Hamas leave Beirut's southern suburbs, which is Hezbollah's stronghold. Most Hamas leaders live in this area, and it is home to the movement's main office."On June 11, the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, which is close to Hezbollah, published "It's Forbidden to Criticize Hamas." According to the story, "Hezbollah had issued an internal circular forbidding party officials from commenting on or directing any criticism at the Islamic Resistance Movement [Hamas]."
The Kuwaiti daily Al-Seyassah had published a story on June 10 story quoting unnamed sources as saying that Lebanese General Security had stopped issuing visas to Hamas members at the behest of Hezbollah. While Hamas denied these reports, the Lebanese General Directorate of General Security issued a statement the same day confirming the freeze on the issuance of visas....
While Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas had for many years constituted a solid alliance, with developments in the Syrian crisis, Hamas leaders adopted the Muslim Brotherhood's anti-Assad stance, left its Damascus headquarters and allied with Qatar, the Syrian opposition's primary supporter. ...
The daily Al-Quds al-Arabi (London) alleged in a June 4 article, "The Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, decided to maintain its alliance with Hezbollah and Iran, as a way to liberate Palestine from Israeli occupation by force of arms, after Arab money failed to liberate a single inch of occupied Arab territories." ..."

Body Language!

""We categorically oppose ... affirmations that the conference should become a kind of public act of capitulation by the government delegation, with the subsequent handover of power in Syria to the opposition," 

Russia: 'Assad foes cannot set conditions for Syria talks'

(Reuters) - "The Syrian opposition must not be allowed to set conditions for attending apeace conference, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in comments published on Tuesday.
Despite pressure on President Vladimir Putin at a G8 summit to tone down Russian support for Bashar al-Assad, Lavrov signaled there was no change in Moscow's view that the Syrian leader's exit cannot be a precondition for the peace talks.
He said both sides in Syria's civil war must "refrain from setting any preconditions," a reference to a statement by the Syrian opposition last month that it would attend the peace conference only if a deadline was set for a settlement forcing Assad to leave power.
"We categorically oppose ... affirmations that the conference should become a kind of public act of capitulation by the government delegation, with the subsequent handover of power in Syria to the opposition," he said in remarks published on the Russian Foreign Ministry's website.
Russia and the United States are working together to arrange the peace conference. Suggesting Russiahad done its part to get Assad to the negotiating table, Lavrov said Syria's government had agreed to take part in the conference and formed a negotiating team to be led by Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem.
"With the opposition it is more difficult," he said, adding that Syrian opposition calls for the government's removal were out of line with efforts to reach a consensus on a path to peace."

FT: "Those who are urging the US to get more deeply involved in the Syrian conflict now are living in the past"

"... Those who are urging the US to get more deeply involved in the Syrian conflict now are living in the past. They assume that America can and should continue to dominate the politics of the Middle East. But four fundamental changes make it no longer realistic, or even desirable, for the US to dominate the region in the old way.

These changes are the failures of the Afghan and Iraq wars; the Great Recession, the Arab spring and the prospect of US energy independence....President Barack Obama has given some ground to the “arm the rebels” camp. But his reluctance and scepticism are evident – and amply justified. If a full-scale western occupation of both Iraq and Afghanistan was unable to secure a decent outcome, why does anybody believe that supplying a few light weapons to the Syrian rebels will be more effective?
The Great Recession also means that the west’s capacity to “bear any burden” can no longer be taken for granted. European military spending is falling fast – and cuts in the Pentagon budget have begun. With the direct and indirect cost of the Iraq war estimated at $3tn and the US government borrowing 40 cents of every dollar that it spends, it is hardly surprising that Mr Obama is wary of taking on new commitments in the Middle East.
The third new factor is the Arab spring. President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt was a long-time ally and client of the US. Nonetheless, Washington decided to let him fall in early 2011 – much to the disgust and alarm of other long-term American allies in the region, notably Saudi Arabia and Israel....
Finally, the ability of the US to take a more hands-off attitude is greatly enhanced by the shale revolution in the US, which lessens American dependence on Middle Eastern oil.
Accepting that western domination of the Middle East is coming to an end, however, should not be confused with saying that western nations will not defend their interests.
The US has large military bases in the Gulf and, together with its allies, will still try to prevent the Middle East becoming dominated by a hostile power. Despite its role in Syria, Russia is not a plausible regional hegemon. But Iran worries the US; an attack on its nuclear programme remains an option, despite the encouraging result of this weekend’s presidential elections. Jihadist forces, linked to al-Qaeda, will also encounter western resistance – one reason why the Syrian opposition continues to be treated very warily. And the US and its European allies will remain deeply involved in regional diplomacy over Syria.

Western humanitarian instincts will play a role too – as they did in the decision to support the Libyan rebellion. But, as Syria is demonstrating, there is a limit to what the west will take on. Even former Australian foreign minister Gareth Evans, the intellectual godfather of the doctrine of the “responsibility to protect” civilians, is warning against military intervention in Syria.
Despite the US decision to begin to supply military assistance to the rebels, Mr Obama is obviously still wary of deep involvement in the Syrian conflict. More than some of his advisers and allies, he seems to appreciate the limited ability of outside powers to control the new order that it is emerging in the region. The era of direct colonialism in the Middle East ended decades ago. The era of informal empire is now also coming to a close."

"The question for Qatar is how long before ..."

"...The question for Qatar is how long before the Muslim Brotherhood gets annoyed with Qatari interference and decides it no longer needs to heed its advice, requests and concerns? And in the meantime, how soon before Qatari tourists start feeling uncomfortable in Arab states and before Qatari diplomats are routinely kidnapped and terrorist attacks take place in Doha by the plethora of disgruntled groups it either supported or opposed in one Arab country or another? How long before Qatar realizes that it led itself into a position it is no longer in control of? And how long before Qataris start wondering: “Was it worth it?” and “What was it all about, anyway?” Wouldn’t Qataris then feel emboldened to call for more political rights to better manage their national wealth and set a more amicable foreign policy? The state’s legislative elections called for two years ago by the emir are due to take place in the second half of this year. ..."

Intelligence Source: "US still Couldn't Nail Down Chemical Weapons Chain of Custody"

"... That chain of custody still hasn't been nailed down, an American intelligence source tells The Cable. But U.S. spy agencies nonetheless now feel confident that chemical weapons were used in Syria...."

"Why the Pentagon really, really doesn't want to get involved in Syria"

"...Top Pentagon brass have been ambivalent in the extreme about getting involved in the Syrian crisis since it began more than two years ago. And now, even as the Obama administration signals its intention to provide direct military aid to opponents of the Syrian regime, there remains deep skepticism across the military that it will work.With some notable exceptions, top brass believe arming Syrian rebels, creating a no-fly zone and intervening in other ways militarily, amounts to a risky approach with enormous costs that won't likely give the Syrian opposition the lift it needs. The announcement Thursday from the White House that its intelligence now confirms that the Assad regime has used chemical weapons signaled the Obama administration's apparent plan to lean forward militarily in Syria. But it does not appear to be the result of any change of thinking in the military. ..."

Lang: 'Russia, Iran, Hizbullah & Syria are in the process of finishing off the "rebels."

"... Barack Obama is about to have his "butt kicked" by the Russians over Syria.  This will be the latest in a long series of defeats for him in his second term, not to mention the unceremonious way the US was disinvited from a continuing presence in Iraq and the massive and thinly disguised failure of his COIN strategic decision in Afghanistan.  These were in his first term.
Putin made it clear yesterday to our British lapdog, David Cameron, that he considers Assad's government to be the legitimate government of Syria and that there will be no resolution emerging from the UN Security Council that threatens that status.  He also made it clear that the rebels (whoever they are) are responsible for many of the civilian casualies that have occurred in Syria.
Russia, Iran, Hizbullah and Syria are in the process of finishing off the "rebels."
Some people are saying that an unpopular minorities based government cannot hold Syria.  Really? His father did so for decades..."

Al Jazeera's sectarian incitement: 'Who do hate more, Sunnis or Shi'as?'

Taliban 'set to open office in Qatar' to give peace a chance!

 

"... Taliban will open a political office in the Gulf state of Qatar on Tuesday, Al Jazeera has learned. The office of the Afghan armed group in Doha will aim at facilitating peace talks...."

Assad in the FAZ interview "Europe will pay the price for delivery of arms"

"The Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad has warned the European nations against supplying weapons to the Syrian rebels. "If the Europeans deliver these weapons to Europe's backyard, and Europe will pay the price for it," Assad said in an exclusive interview with the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" in Damascus."Hardened terrorists will learn how to use these weapons & return to Europe  equipped with extremist ideology.": A series of arms shipments to the rebels would be exporting of terrorism to Europe, Assad saidAssad rejected the claim of the United States, Britain and France, the Syrian army had used poison gas. "Had Paris, London and Washington only one evidence for their claims, they would have submitted this to the world."..."

German Intelligence services & Syrian Military Mukhabarat: 'Let's talk!'

"...According to some reports in the German press, recently chief of the BND Gerhard Schindler radically revised the assessment of the situation in Syria provided earlier by his subordinates. Based on the statements of senior officers who deserted the Syrian army, intelligence service in Germany predicted the imminent collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad. In mid-March, Schindler confidently stated in an interview that the days of the Assad regime were numbered, however, did not name the exact date of the expected collapse. ...

According to a correspondent of the first German television channel ARD from the Jordanian capital Amman, the president of the Federal Intelligence Service of Germany Schindler recently held secret talks in Syria. In early May, Gerhard Schindler, along with the Head of BND counterterrorism Department, negotiated in Damascus on the resumption of cooperation between the two countries in the field of counter-terrorism.
The German intelligence services are interested in the information provided by their Syrian counterparts on radical Islamists operating in Western Europe. They generally support the opposition to Assad's government, and sooner or later get noticed by the secret police. Media reported that Schindler in the first place was interested in the arrested Islamists who have been trained in militants' camps and participated in combat activities, and therefore were capable of emerging in prosperous Europe..."

Saudia & France sharing the cost of MANPADS to Syria's insurgents

(Reuters) - Saudi Arabia, a staunch opponent of President Bashar al-Assad since early in Syria's conflict, began supplying anti-aircraft missiles to rebels "on a small scale" about two months ago, a Gulf source said on Monday.
The shoulder-fired weapons were obtained mostly from suppliers inFrance and Belgium, the source told Reuters. France had paid for the transport of the weapons to the region..."

'Al Mayadeen's' Ali Hashem: "I saw Hasan Nasrallah in Qusayr"

This is what the veteran reporter (now with al Mayadeen) tweeted: "I was lucky to see you in the heart of Qusayr, without your turban ... and I was lucky to get a greeting smile from a leader who does not fear enemies..."

The US underestimates al Qaeda in Syria: 'Group is larger & best equipped'

"... (CNN) -- Al Qaeda's affiliate inside Syria is now the best-equipped arm of the terror group in existence today, according to informal assessments by U.S. and Middle East intelligence agencies, a private sector analyst directly familiar with the information told CNN.Concern about the Syrian al Qaeda-affiliated group Jabhat al-Nusra, also known as the al-Nusra Front, is at an all-time high, according to the analyst, with as many as 10,000 fighters and supporters inside Syria. The United States has designated al-Nusra Front as a terrorist group with links to al Qaeda in Iraq.That assessment is shared by some Middle Eastern intelligence agencies that have long believed the United States is underestimating the Sunni-backed al Qaeda movement in the country, according to a Middle East source..."

"Bad idea Mr. President!"

"...The Syrian revolution isn’t democratic or secular; the more than 90,000 fatalities are the result of a civil war, not a genocide — and human rights violations have been committed on both sides.Moreover, the rebels don’t have the support or trust of a clear majority of the population, and the political opposition is neither credible nor representative. Ethnic cleansing against minorities is more likely to occur under a rebel-led government than under Mr. Assad; likewise, the possibility of chemical weapons’ falling into the hands of terrorist groups only grows as the regime weakens.
And finally, a rebel victory is more likely to destabilize Iraq and Lebanon, and the inevitable disorder of a post-Assad Syria constitutes a greater threat to Israel than the status quo. ..."

Saudi anti-aircrafts: "The answer is blowin' in the wind"

So, the Saudis say they will provide MANPADs. If true, we ask, for what? 

"... Saudi Arabia plans to supply the Syrian opposition with anti-aircraft missiles to counter President Bashar al-Assad's air force, German news weekly Der Spiegel reports.Sunday's article, citing a classified report received by the German foreign intelligence service and the German government last week, said Riyadh was looking at sending European-made Mistral-class MANPADS, or man-portable air-defence systems....."

... even though, chairman of the JCS Gen. Martin Dempsey 

"...  also estimates that air strikes only account for roughly 10 percent of the total casualties in Syria, which by some estimates exceeds 80,000. Direct fire or artillery account for the remaining 90 percent..." 

Tehran and Istanbul drifting in opposite ways!

'A Tale of two cities!'

Foreign Policy "... Women whipped off head scarves and drivers honked their horns in an emotional release ... In far more democratic neighboring Turkey, meanwhile, riot police on Saturday again blasted protestors in Istanbul’s central Taksim Square and a small park nearby with water cannons and tear gas trying to definitively end two weeks of demonstrations that have convulsed the country. Recep Tayyip Erdogan ... wanted the area emptied so he could stage a more congenial rally of his own on Sunday, one led by conservative Muslim supporters..."

Washington & Tel Aviv (as usual) way off on Tehran!

'b' at MonnOfAlabama encapsulates it in two quotes:

"I take some consolation in that fact that I was not as wrong as the Washington Post editors:

"... Mr. Rouhani, who has emerged as the default candidate of Iran’s reformists, will not be allowed to win..."

Or as wrong as the Israeli-Iranian expert Meir Javedanfar

"... [I]t is safe to say that moderate candidate Hassan Rowhani has no chance of success. There is little doubt that Mr Rowhani and the Stanford educated reformist Mohammad Reza Aref are far more popular than the conservative candidates. However, the supreme leader would not allow votes in their favour to be counted..."

'Morsi's top aides advised him against the move on Syria'

Ahram Online - "... The announcement that Egypt will sever all ties with Syria, made by President Mohamed Morsi while addressing thousands of Muslim Brotherhood members at Cairo Stadium Saturday night, reflects a decision made by the president against the advice of top bureaucratic aides,... The decision was pronounced in the course of an otherwise fiery speech where the president in a high pitch insisted that “Hezbollah should leave Syria.”While some government sources said they were briefly notified ...  others said they only knew of the decision when it was announced at the Muslim Brotherhood event on Saturday night.According to the informed sources, who spoke to Ahram Online on condition of anonymity, Morsi was advised against the move by some of his top bureaucratic aides who insisted that the move would antagonise the Syrian regime against any mediation forums that have been proposed..."

White House: "We've rushed to war in this (Middle East) region in the past; we're not going to do it here."

" A top aide to President Obama said Sunday that U.S. policy in Syria has to be dictated in part by what happened in Iraq. White House chief of staff Denis McDonough, speaking on CBS' Face The Nation, referred to Iraq in saying of Syria: "We've rushed to war in this region in the past; we're not going to do it here." McDonough added: "We have to be very discerning about what's in our interest and what outcome is best for us, and the prices that we're willing to pay to get to that place."Obama administration officials -- though not the president himself -- announced last week that they are sending military aid to Syrian rebels, but did not specify that aid...."

Four killed in ambush Lebanon border area: Sectarian tensions high!

"Four Lebanese Shiite men were killed in an ambush in a volatile border area in east Lebanon Sunday, and tensions ran high as gunmen took to the roads in response, sources told The Daily Star...."

French FM Dumas: 'British officials told me of the planned destruction of the Syrian regime 2 years BEFORE the Arab spring!'

"The reason? Syria held some strong anti-Israeli positions & it was necessary to destroy it"

"The very Sunni-Wahabi Islamists who killed thousands of Americans on 9-11 are going to be allies of Obama!"

"... Up to 3,000 American ‘advisers’ are now believed to be in Jordan, and the creation of a southern Syria ‘no-fly zone’ – opposed by Syrian-controlled anti-aircraft batteries – will turn a crisis into a ‘hot’ war....  So much for America’s ‘friends’.Its enemies include the Lebanese Hizballah, the Alawite Shiite regime in Damascus and, of course, Iran...And Iraq, a largely Shiite nation which America ‘liberated’ from Saddam Hussein’s Sunni minority in the hope of balancing the Shiite power of Iran, has – against all US predictions – itself now largely fallen under Tehran’s influence and power....Iraqi Shiites as well as Hizballah members, have both fought alongside Assad’s forces.
Washington’s excuse for its new Middle East adventure – that it must arm Assad’s enemies because the Damascus regime has used sarin gas against them – convinces no-one in the Middle East....Final proof of the use of gas by either side in Syria remains almost as nebulous as President George W. Bush’s claim that Saddam’s Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction....

 In the Middle East, there is cynical disbelief at the American contention that it can distribute arms – almost certainly including anti-aircraft missiles – only to secular Sunni rebel forces in Syria represented by the so-called Free Syria Army.  The more powerful al-Nusrah Front, allied to al-Qaeda, dominates the battlefield on the rebel side and has been blamed for atrocities including the execution of Syrian government prisoners of war and the murder of a 14-year old boy for blasphemy.  They will be able to take new American weapons from their Free Syria Army comrades with little effort.From now on, therefore, every suicide bombing in Damascus - every war crime committed by the rebels - will be regarded in the region as Washington’s responsibility. The very Sunni-Wahabi Islamists who killed thousands of Americans on 11th September, 2011 – who are America’s greatest enemies as well as Russia’s – are going to be proxy allies of the Obama administration. This terrible irony can only be exacerbated by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s adament refusal to tolerate any form of Sunni extremism.  His experience in Chechenya, his anti-Muslim rhetoric – he has made obscene remarks about Muslim extremists in a press conference in Russian – and his belief that Russia’s old ally in Syria is facing the same threat as Moscow fought in Chechenya, plays a far greater part in his policy towards Bashar al-Assad than the continued existence of Russia’s naval port at the Syrian Mediterranean city of Tartous..."

"Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood have no shame..."

"... Egypt's April 6 Movement (the Democratic Front) issued a statement Saturday accusing President Mohamed Morsi of capitalising on Syrian blood and promoting a US agenda with his decision to cut ties with Bashar Al-Assad’s Syria. 
"We are surprised about Morsi’s condemnation of foreign intervention in Syria, being that he also demands a no-fly zone over Syria, which would allow for foreign intervention," read the statement, referring to the president’s comments Saturday during a conference organised by Islamists in support of the Syrian uprising. 
The implementation of no-fly zone would require the destruction of Syria's Russian-built air defences. 
"Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood have no shame in trading on anything, even the blood of martyrs in Syria, in order to win the sympathy of Egyptians," added the statement, pointing out that Morsi’s call to support the opposition coincides with Washington's decision on Thursday to supply Syria's rebels with weapons. .."

Syrian National Coalition Sabra: 'The Free Syrian Army's weakness is that it's an amalgam of Killer, robbers & Islamists ..."

'This is what you have to say!'

Elnashra 

"... وعن إنطباعه عن "القوّات اللبنانيّة" ، أوضحَ صبرا أنه "أنا شخصيّاً أقدّر التحديثات والتحوّلات التي أدخلها سمير جعجع في صفوف "القوات اللبنانية"، وفي فكرها، وأهمّ ما يلفتني إلى الرجل هو نفَسُه العربي، وتبنّيه العروبة كخطاب، وأهمّ ما في خطابه هو الانفتاح نحو فلسطين ي، 

.من جهة ثانية، إعتبر أنّ نقطة ضعف "الجيش الحُرّ" هي أنّ "كُلَّ من هبَّ ودبَّ من مُجرمين ولصوص وإسلاميّين يُعلنون انضواءهم تحت رايته، لذلك سارع إلى تأليف قيادة أركان لضبط الميليشيات، ولكنّ هذه القيادة تحتاج دعماً كبيراً حتّى يتسنّى لها تغيير النتائج على الأرض والانتصار". ولفت إلى أنّ "الرئيس الأميركي باراك أوباما يخاف التورط في الحروب، حتّى لو كانت القضيّة مُحقّة كقضيّة الشعب السوري".

AIPAC/ WINEP: 'Arm the array of militias & Divide Syria"

"... At first, any talks would have to focus on getting Assad, his security chiefs, and his top generals to step down and leave the country. The ultimate goal would be the reunification of the country within a democratic and decentralized structure that recognized regional differences. Ideally, Syria’s current division into 14 provinces would be maintained. But in areas of the country that are less ethnically homogeneous, such as the province of Homs, the provinces might have to be split ...  .... Much of what Washington envisages in Syria may not go according to plan. American bullets could find their way into Salafi Kalashnikovs, and American radios could fall into the hands of those preaching hatred. Violence and massacres could delay or prevent elections in some areas. And the conflict could remain a stalemate for years to come, with no side gaining the decisive upper hand. The United States’ commitment to any one facet of this plan should not be open ended, and Washington will need to continually evaluate how well it is meeting its objectives.

Despite the many risks, it is important that the United States continue to help parts of the Syrian opposition on the ground take power -- and not attempt to give power to those in exile who promise much but can in fact deliver little. Given the degree of Syria’s meltdown and the country’s strategic importance, standing idly by is the worst option. Establishing a stronger relationship with the opposition is what will best allow the United States to shape an outcome among the warring parties that suits its interests and those of its allies and provides a better future for the Syrian people."

Obama's partners in Syria: "Array of rebel militias heavily infiltrated by al Qaida loyalists & coalition of exiles who have little, if any, legitimacy in Syria"

If the US goes ahead with this (FLC DOES NOT believe it will in any major way), then we could be moving from 'stupid to crazy'!

"... What’s emerged instead on the military side is an array of rebel militias heavily infiltrated by radical Islamists and al Qaida loyalists with no central command. On the political side, the opposition is a fractious coalition of exiles who can’t agree on a leader and who have little, if any, legitimacy in Syria.Neither makes an ideal partner, according to analysts who monitor the conflict, and yet the administration has no real alternative as U.S. involvement deepens in a crisis that threatens the entire Middle East.
The Obama administration’s announcement Thursday that it would send more military aid to the rebel Supreme Military Council, which is led by defected Gen. Salim Idriss, tethers the United States to the crisis in a new way, analysts said. For months, the administration has been pivoting quietly from the unpopular, ineffective Syrian Opposition Coalition toward Idriss, who...  boasts very little authority over the loose confederation of militias known as the Free Syrian Army and none at all over the al Qaida-affiliated fighters who’ve proved to be the most effective Assad foes.....
Analysts say a chief concern is that with the U.S. so overtly backing one side of a civil war, it’ll be dragged into an escalating level of support: from light arms to anti-tank weapons to a no-fly zone and so on. And there are no guarantees that the U.S.-backed rebels will remain loyal to American interests or that shipments of heavier weapons won’t slip into the hands of the Nusra Front, which is openly tied to al Qaida, or Ahrar al Sham, which shares Nusra’s ideology, if not its loyalty to al Qaida.
“It’s definitely dangerous territory, and it’s going to be hard to moderate now,” said Shawn Brimley, the vice president of the Center for a New American Security and a former strategic planning director on President Barack Obama’s National Security Council staff.
“We need to resist the powerful gravitational pull of another war in the Middle East,” Brimley said.
Brimley was involved in the White House planning for the NATO-led intervention in Libya, and he said he’d watched as the operation began as a humanitarian mission but turned into a campaign to remove then-leader Moammar Gadhafi. In Libya, as in Syria, he said, the United States was working with exiled opposition figures and “when push came to shove, they didn’t have any tactical push on the ground with the rebels.”...
That’s also an apt description for the Syrian Opposition Coalition, which is known for its public infighting and members who resign with great fanfare only to show up at the next meeting. After spending more than a week squabbling, coalition members added about 50 names to their roster in a bid to dilute the Muslim Brotherhood’s domination with a liberal bloc...
Behind the scenes, U.S. officials are exasperated with the coalition members, but very little of the frustration bubbles up publicly. Rhodes, who announced the new assistance, said Thursday that the administration was comfortable working with the opposition coalition, an odd assessment given that U.S. officials told McClatchy only two weeks ago that the State Department was so fed up with the coalition’s lack of progress that it was considering diverting millions of dollars in U.S. funds earmarked for the group.
Of the money that’s been delivered to the opposition, very little has gone to the coalition itself, the officials said.
“It’s obviously been a very unstable organization,” one official said then, requesting anonymity in order to speak freely.
Unless the unarmed opposition gets its act together soon, analysts said, it might find itself sidelined as the Obama administration attaches itself more visibly to the armed wing (WE REPEAT: the"array of militias heavily infiltrated by al Qaeda!")..."

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/06/14/194001/analysts-obama-is-gambling-on.html#storylink=cpy