... and the last two US-supported aggressions on Lebanon & Gaza were 'beneficial'? Gaza was under this charlatan's watch!
'US prolonged the aggression, blocked all initiatives to end the deaths and destruction of Lebanon in 2006'
'Again, the US was the only UNSC member to block a resolution calling for the immediate end of aggression in Gaza 2009'
Thursday, February 9, 2012
'Ban Ki-moon: Russian & Chinese vetoes "disastrous" for Syria!'
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Jeffrey Feltman or Robert Ford as ambassador to Baghdad, as US embassy comes under pressure!
"Just over a month after the withdrawal of the last U.S. troops from Iraq, the United States plans to sharply cut the number of U.S. diplomatic personnel and contractors in the country. The move comes as Yahoo News has learned that the recently withdrawn U.S. ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, is being considered to succeed Jim Jeffrey as the next U.S. Ambassador to Iraq.
Also on the short list are Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeff Feltman....
The State Department announced Monday that it is withdrawing Ford and other U.S. government personnel from Syria and suspending operations of the U.S. Embassy in Syria amid worsening violence there. While the State Department said Ford would remain ambassador to Syria and would continue to meet with Syrian democracy activists abroad, one American and two Iraqi sources told Yahoo News that the Obama administration is considering tapping Ford as Washington's next envoy to Iraq--overseeing the largest U.S. embassy in the world....
American officials described plans to cut the 16,000 US personnel and contractors in Iraq by as much as half as a normal cost-saving measure....But regional diplomats tell Yahoo News the United States is also under pressure from Iraqi Shiite leaders to reduce the American presence in the country.
"This is what's happening," one regional diplomat told Yahoo News Tuesday on condition of anonymity. "First the U.S. gets the troops out. Then [the Iraqi Shiite] Sadrists say publicly, 'what kind of withdrawal is this, the Americans still have 16,000 diplomats in the country.' So first they force the military out. Now the anti-American elements force the diplomats out. This is what it is."
Ankara seeking the release of 49 detained Turkish intelligence officers who entered Syria "by mistake"
"...Sham FM said the officers had been detained while operating undercover, although there has been no word from Ankara on any such arrests.
The radio said Syria had laid down three conditions for any release: an exchange of the Turkish officers for rebel Free Syrian Army members in Turkish territory, for Turkey to halt infiltrations by the FSA, and for Turkey to stop training its members.
The radio said Damascus wanted its ally Tehran to be the witness of any accord with Ankara..."
Wikileaks: US government: "We should coordinate with the Saudis & Egyptians to undermine a stronger Assad!"
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 DAMASCUS 005399
SUBJECT: INFLUENCING THE SARG IN THE END OF 2006
¶1. (S) Summary. The SARG ends 2006 in a much stronger
position domestically and internationally than it did 2005.
While there may be additional bilateral or multilateral
pressure that can impact Syria, the regime is based on a
small clique that is largely immune to such pressure.
However, Bashar Asad's growing self-confidence )- and
reliance on this small clique -- could lead him to make
mistakes and ill-judged policy decisions through trademark
emotional reactions to challenges, providing us with new
opportunities. .... We believe
Bashar,s weaknesses are in how he chooses to react to
looming issues, both perceived and real, such as a the
conflict between economic reform steps (however limited) and
entrenched, corrupt forces, the Kurdish question, and the
potential threat to the regime from the increasing presence
of transiting Islamist extremists. This cable summarizes our
assessment of these vulnerabilities and suggests that there
may be actions, statements, and signals that the USG can send
that will improve the likelihood of such opportunities
arising. These proposals will need to be fleshed out and
converted into real actions....
¶2. (S) As the end of 2006 approaches, Bashar appears in some
ways stronger than he has in two years. The country is
economically stable (at least for the short term), internal
opposition the regime faces is weak and intimidated, and
regional issues seem to be going Syria,s way, from
Damascus, perspective. Nonetheless, there are some
long-standing vulnerabilities and looming issues that may
provide opportunities to up the pressure on Bashar and his
inner circle. Regime decision-making is limited to Bashar
and an inner circle that often produces poorly thought-out
tactical decisions and sometimes emotional approaches, such
as Bashar,s universally derided August 15 speech. Some of
these vulnerabilities, such as the regime,s near-irrational
views on Lebanon, can be exploited to put pressure on the
regime. Actions that cause Bashar to lose balance and
increase his insecurity are in our interest because his
inexperience and his regime,s extremely small
decision-making circle make him prone to diplomatic stumbles
that can weaken him domestically and regionally. While the
consequences of his mistakes are hard to predict and the
benefits may vary, if we are prepared to move quickly to take
advantage of the opportunities that may open up, we may
directly impact regime behavior where it matters--Bashar and
his inner circle.
¶3. (S) The following provides our summary of potential
vulnerabilities and possible means to exploit them:
-- Vulnerability:
-- THE HARIRI INVESTIGATION AND THE TRIBUNAL: The Hariri
investigation ) and the prospect of a Lebanon Tribunal --
has provoked powerful SARG reactions, primarily because of
the embarrassment the investigation causes.... We should
seek to exploit this raw nerve, without waiting for formation
of the tribunal..... The Mehlis accusations of October 2005 caused the most serious strains
in Bashar's inner circle. While the family got back
together, these splits may lie just below the surface.
-- Vulnerability:
-- THE ALLIANCE WITH TEHRAN: Bashar is walking a fine line in
his increasingly strong relations with Iran, seeking
necessary support while not completely alienating Syria,s
moderate Sunni Arab neighbors by being perceived as aiding
Persian and fundamentalist Shia interests. Bashar's decision
to not attend the Talabani ) Ahmadinejad summit in Tehran
following FM Moallem,s trip to Iraq can be seen as a
manifestation of Bashar's sensitivity to the Arab optic on
his Iranian alliance.
-- Possible action:
-- PLAY ON SUNNI FEARS OF IRANIAN INFLUENCE: There are fears
in Syria that the Iranians are active in both Shia
proselytizing and conversion of, mostly poor, Sunnis. Though
exaggerated, such fears reflect an element of the Sunni
community in Syria... Both the local Egyptian and Saudi missions here, (as well as
prominent Syrian Sunni religious leaders), are giving
increasing attention to the matter and we should coordinate
more closely with their governments on ways to better
publicize and focus regional attention on the issue. (though exaggerated!)
Vulnerability:
-- DIVISIONS IN THE MILITARY-SECURITY SERVICES: Bashar
constantly guards against challenges from those with ties
inside the military and security services....
-- Possible Action:
-- ENCOURAGE RUMORS AND SIGNALS OF EXTERNAL PLOTTING:
The regime is intensely sensitive to rumors about
coup-plotting and restlessness in the security services and
military. Regional allies like Egypt and Saudi Arabia should
be encouraged to meet with figures like Khaddam and Rif,at
Asad as a way of sending such signals, with appropriate
leaking of the meetings afterwards...
-- Vulnerability:
-- THE KURDS: The most organized and daring political
opposition and civil society groups are among the ethnic
minority Kurds, concentrated in Syria,s northeast, as well
as in communities in Damascus and Aleppo. This group has
been willing to protest violently in its home territory when
others would dare not. There are few threats that loom
larger in Bashar,s mind than unrest with the Kurds. In what
is a rare occurrence, our DATT was convoked by Syrian
Military Intelligence in May of 2006 to protest what the
Syrians believed were US efforts to provide military training
and equipment to the Kurds in Syria.
-- Possible Action:
-- HIGHLIGHT KURDISH COMPLAINTS: ... This issue
would need to be handled carefully, since giving the wrong
kind of prominence to Kurdish issues in Syria could be a
liability for our efforts at uniting the opposition, given
Syrian (mostly Arab) civil society,s skepticism of Kurdish
objectives.
-- Vulnerability:
-- Extremist elements increasingly use Syria as a base, while
the SARG has taken some actions against groups stating links
to Al-Qaeda.
-- Possible Actions:
-- Publicize presence of transiting (or externally focused)
extremist groups in Syria,...Publicize Syrian efforts against extremist groups
in a way that suggests weakness, signs of instability, and
uncontrolled blowback. The SARG,s argument (usually used
after terror attacks in Syria) that it too is a victim of
terrorism should be used against it to give greater
prominence to increasing signs of instability within Syria.
This analysis leaves out the anti-regime
Syrian Islamists because it is difficult to get an accurate
picture of the threat within Syria that such groups pose.
They are certainly a long-term threat...
SUBJECT: INFLUENCING THE SARG IN THE END OF 2006
¶1. (S) Summary. The SARG ends 2006 in a much stronger
position domestically and internationally than it did 2005.
While there may be additional bilateral or multilateral
pressure that can impact Syria, the regime is based on a
small clique that is largely immune to such pressure.
However, Bashar Asad's growing self-confidence )- and
reliance on this small clique -- could lead him to make
mistakes and ill-judged policy decisions through trademark
emotional reactions to challenges, providing us with new
opportunities. .... We believe
Bashar,s weaknesses are in how he chooses to react to
looming issues, both perceived and real, such as a the
conflict between economic reform steps (however limited) and
entrenched, corrupt forces, the Kurdish question, and the
potential threat to the regime from the increasing presence
of transiting Islamist extremists. This cable summarizes our
assessment of these vulnerabilities and suggests that there
may be actions, statements, and signals that the USG can send
that will improve the likelihood of such opportunities
arising. These proposals will need to be fleshed out and
converted into real actions....
¶2. (S) As the end of 2006 approaches, Bashar appears in some
ways stronger than he has in two years. The country is
economically stable (at least for the short term), internal
opposition the regime faces is weak and intimidated, and
regional issues seem to be going Syria,s way, from
Damascus, perspective. Nonetheless, there are some
long-standing vulnerabilities and looming issues that may
provide opportunities to up the pressure on Bashar and his
inner circle. Regime decision-making is limited to Bashar
and an inner circle that often produces poorly thought-out
tactical decisions and sometimes emotional approaches, such
as Bashar,s universally derided August 15 speech. Some of
these vulnerabilities, such as the regime,s near-irrational
views on Lebanon, can be exploited to put pressure on the
regime. Actions that cause Bashar to lose balance and
increase his insecurity are in our interest because his
inexperience and his regime,s extremely small
decision-making circle make him prone to diplomatic stumbles
that can weaken him domestically and regionally. While the
consequences of his mistakes are hard to predict and the
benefits may vary, if we are prepared to move quickly to take
advantage of the opportunities that may open up, we may
directly impact regime behavior where it matters--Bashar and
his inner circle.
¶3. (S) The following provides our summary of potential
vulnerabilities and possible means to exploit them:
-- Vulnerability:
-- THE HARIRI INVESTIGATION AND THE TRIBUNAL: The Hariri
investigation ) and the prospect of a Lebanon Tribunal --
has provoked powerful SARG reactions, primarily because of
the embarrassment the investigation causes.... We should
seek to exploit this raw nerve, without waiting for formation
of the tribunal..... The Mehlis accusations of October 2005 caused the most serious strains
in Bashar's inner circle. While the family got back
together, these splits may lie just below the surface.
-- Vulnerability:
-- THE ALLIANCE WITH TEHRAN: Bashar is walking a fine line in
his increasingly strong relations with Iran, seeking
necessary support while not completely alienating Syria,s
moderate Sunni Arab neighbors by being perceived as aiding
Persian and fundamentalist Shia interests. Bashar's decision
to not attend the Talabani ) Ahmadinejad summit in Tehran
following FM Moallem,s trip to Iraq can be seen as a
manifestation of Bashar's sensitivity to the Arab optic on
his Iranian alliance.
-- Possible action:
-- PLAY ON SUNNI FEARS OF IRANIAN INFLUENCE: There are fears
in Syria that the Iranians are active in both Shia
proselytizing and conversion of, mostly poor, Sunnis. Though
exaggerated, such fears reflect an element of the Sunni
community in Syria... Both the local Egyptian and Saudi missions here, (as well as
prominent Syrian Sunni religious leaders), are giving
increasing attention to the matter and we should coordinate
more closely with their governments on ways to better
publicize and focus regional attention on the issue. (though exaggerated!)
Vulnerability:
-- DIVISIONS IN THE MILITARY-SECURITY SERVICES: Bashar
constantly guards against challenges from those with ties
inside the military and security services....
-- Possible Action:
-- ENCOURAGE RUMORS AND SIGNALS OF EXTERNAL PLOTTING:
The regime is intensely sensitive to rumors about
coup-plotting and restlessness in the security services and
military. Regional allies like Egypt and Saudi Arabia should
be encouraged to meet with figures like Khaddam and Rif,at
Asad as a way of sending such signals, with appropriate
leaking of the meetings afterwards...
-- Vulnerability:
-- THE KURDS: The most organized and daring political
opposition and civil society groups are among the ethnic
minority Kurds, concentrated in Syria,s northeast, as well
as in communities in Damascus and Aleppo. This group has
been willing to protest violently in its home territory when
others would dare not. There are few threats that loom
larger in Bashar,s mind than unrest with the Kurds. In what
is a rare occurrence, our DATT was convoked by Syrian
Military Intelligence in May of 2006 to protest what the
Syrians believed were US efforts to provide military training
and equipment to the Kurds in Syria.
-- Possible Action:
-- HIGHLIGHT KURDISH COMPLAINTS: ... This issue
would need to be handled carefully, since giving the wrong
kind of prominence to Kurdish issues in Syria could be a
liability for our efforts at uniting the opposition, given
Syrian (mostly Arab) civil society,s skepticism of Kurdish
objectives.
-- Vulnerability:
-- Extremist elements increasingly use Syria as a base, while
the SARG has taken some actions against groups stating links
to Al-Qaeda.
-- Possible Actions:
-- Publicize presence of transiting (or externally focused)
extremist groups in Syria,...Publicize Syrian efforts against extremist groups
in a way that suggests weakness, signs of instability, and
uncontrolled blowback. The SARG,s argument (usually used
after terror attacks in Syria) that it too is a victim of
terrorism should be used against it to give greater
prominence to increasing signs of instability within Syria.
This analysis leaves out the anti-regime
Syrian Islamists because it is difficult to get an accurate
picture of the threat within Syria that such groups pose.
They are certainly a long-term threat...
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Turkey requested NATO contingencies in Syria?!
"Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is coming to Washington this week. At the 2012 Munich Security Conference last weekend, The Cable asked Davutoglu if it was true that his government has requested NATO to start planning for contingencies in Syria. Davutoglu said, "It's not true," but we're told otherwise."
"Joe Lieberman’s “warning” about arming the Free Syrian Army has proceeded all the way to action!"
".... But then Lieberman shows up:Senator Joe Lieberman, a former Democratic presidential candidate, went further than Clinton and talked of the military option.
“If Russia and China don’t change their minds about the veto … then the world will not allow us to say there’s nothing we can do about it,” Lieberman said.But if a report from PressTV today is true, Lieberman’s “warning” about arming the Free Syrian Army has proceeded all the way to action:
“So we should begin thinking about what we can do, particularly with the Arab League,” he said. “I think it begins with support for the Free Syrian Army.”
The senator said a “range of support” could be given to the rebels, from medical supplies to intelligence and reconnaissance surveillance.
“And then ultimately it is providing them with weapons,” he said during a panel discussion on the Middle East.
Lebanon’s security officials say a suspicious cargo containing huge amounts of US dollars, guns, special passports and credit cards have been seized upon arrival in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, from the US and Brazil.Over the past few months, reports have circulated that caches of weapons have been smuggled to armed gangs in Syria through the Lebanese border.
The items, packed in a number of chests and delivered via airmail, were discovered at Beirut’s airport, the Lebanese security officials said.
The chests also contained a list of both well-known and ordinary Lebanese citizens including a figure related to Salafi extremist groups. The security officials have summoned a number of the individuals, whose names were on the list, arresting some of them.
/snip/
Misrata Salafis dying in Syria
Via MoonOfAlabama, Borzou Daraghi tweets:
Borzou Daragahi@borzou
Wow - Misurata revolutionaries announce combat deaths of three #Libyan fighters in #Syria on.fb.me/z8a6kV
'I have an idea! "We are going to start a new initiative with those countries that are against Assad!"
"We are going to start a new initiative with those countries that stand by the people, not the Syrian government. We are preparing this," Erdogan told a meeting of his ruling AK Party in Ankara, giving no further details on the move.
"The process that occurred at the United Nations in relation to Syria is a fiasco for the civilised world," he said... ...
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was expected to travel to the United States on Wednesday for talks with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Clinton said on Sunday the United States would work with other nations to try to tighten sanctions against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government and deny it arms in the absence of a U.N. resolution.
U.S. officials have said they were now gauging the prospects for a group of like-minded countries to coordinate support for Syria's political opposition, a move that could bypass Russian and Chinese resistance to anti-Assad measures.
Such an undertaking might be modelled loosely after the contact group that oversaw international assistance to rebels that overthrew Libya's Muammar Gaddafi ......
'Syrian National Council does not object to Russia's mediating talks with the Regime'
"... The opposition Syrian National Council replied it does not object to Russia mediating the talks.
"Considering the good relations between the Russian and Syrian nations, Russia has a good chance of playing this part," said George Sabra, a senior member of the Council.
Damascus is to announce a national referendum to draw up a new constitution. According to President Assad, the document has already been drafted and will soon be published in newspapers and on the web. The new constitution is set to deprive the ruling political party of its monopoly. Officials expect the referendum to be set for March. After the referendum, the country will go to parliamentary polls, so far planned for May.
Assad stands firm in his resolve to stop violence in his country, wherever it should come from, said Lavrov. The parties reaffirmed their readiness to use the Arab League’s initiative to find “a swift way out of the crisis,” he added.
“Syria is notifying the Arab League that it is interested in the League continuing its work and increasing the number of observers,” declared Lavrov. The League can make its decision now, but Damascus is definitely giving the green light to such a move.
Moscow has called on the League to expand its observing mission, dubbing it a crucial stabilizing factor for Syria.
Lavrov's visit to Syria came amid international anger over Russia and China’s veto of what they saw as a “premature” UN Security Council vote.
The UK and US simultaneously withdrew their ambassadors to Damascus Monday, with the UK Foreign Secretary calling President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime “murderous and doomed.” Italy's Foreign Ministry has allegedly recalled its ambassador from Syria on Tuesday, reports Al Arabia. "
"This is a dress rehearsal for the return. We will return!"
"... MANAMA: Bahraini opposition parties, launching a weeklong ‘sit-in’ for political reforms at a mass rally, swore yesterday to take their campaign to the centre of last year’s democracy protest in the capital Manama. “This is a dress rehearsal for the return. We will return! We will return! Soon our sit-in will not be here but at the Pearl Roundabout,” said poetess Ayat Al-Qormozi, who became a face of the Arab Spring movement after she was jailed for reading out a poem criticising the king at Pearl Roundabout. She was addressing a crowd of over 10,000 at the rally outside Manama, where anti-government protests last year were crushed by Bahraini forces and troops from neighbouring Saudi Arabia. Pearl Roundabout, a large traffic junction in Manama where the protesters camped out and rallied for a month, has since been closed off by security forces who monitor the area closely...."
'Syria is not Tunisia or Libya'
"...On the flip side, after 11 months, the opposition still remains fundamentally divided along ethnic, religious, political and geographic lines, and is unable to articulate a detailed political platform. Furthermore, the armed opposition groups – brought to light in the recent Arab League mission report – lack a central command, are locally based, and have limited, irregular access to the military supply lines essential for operating on a larger scale.
Also, external parties have very little leverage in Syria. The country has adapted to living under sanctions and has a small but cohesive group of allies on which it relies. It functions largely without the web of dependencies typical of other Arab states, does not have a national debt problem, and has recently gained a valuable buffer from the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China), which insist on Syria resolving its crisis internally.
The view from inside Syria, meanwhile, varies starkly from the narratives spun outside. A closer look at the U.N. death toll of 5,000 shows a critical lack of discernment between pro-regime and opposition casualties, and fails to highlight the 2,000 dead regular soldiers whose funerals are televised daily within the country. In contrast to external opposition figures, mainstream domestic ones — even those who seek regime change — tend to reject sanctions, military solutions and foreign intervention in favor of a peaceful political resolution of the crisis
If Assad delivers a new constitution and national elections by the summer, it may be all the space he needs to confound his critics. Increased militarization and sectarianism are likely to cement opinions rather than fragment: People may yearn not so much for bread, but for the ability to walk to the market and buy it."
William Hague: 'We'll help rebels fight "murderous" Assad!'
"...Mr Hague ruled out British military action but said the UK is poised to provide ‘strategic communications’ equipment to help different rebel groups work together against the ‘murderous’ regime in Damascus. ..."
"The Free Syrian Army is basically a fax machine in Turkey!"
Laura Rosen interviews 3/4 'Syria (objective) experts': Convict Elliot Abrams, Radwan (who?) Ziadeh and a third proponent of 'bomb, bomb, bomb!'
"...Yahoo News interviewed four experts about what they think the United States should do next on Syria. All interviews were conducted via phone unless otherwise specified.
Elliott Abrams:
'First, I think we should do one thing we have done: denounce the Russians and Chinese. Secondly, I think we should be helping at least indirectly the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian National Council... they need arms....help the people who are fighting.
Bruce Jentleson (via email):
'Flood the zone—Do lots short of military intervention: tighten sanctions, keep naming and shaming Russia and China, provide refugee relief. Don't arm the opposition, but don't kill ourselves stopping others from doing so if they so choose. No boots on the ground--but perhaps some Nikes on the ground (as there likely already are, whether US/French/Turkish or other)...'
Radwan Ziadeh:
'our main focus right now is to establish a Friends of Syria international coalition. Such an international contact group on Syria--like the one formed on Libya ... it is important to move without [a UN Security Council resolution] to pursue the idea of an international coalition on Syria. It's the only way right now.'
Marc Lynch: head of the Middle East studies program at George Washington University, and frequent consultant to the Obama administration on Middle East policy:
'...As far as this idea of a serious growing armed opposition around Syria, I think people exaggerate its integrity and unity. It seems to be made up of local movements, local organizations, with no unified leadership. ... The Free Syrian Army is basically a fax machine in Turkey. My real fear is that everyone seems to be moving in the direction of [believing the Syrian opposition] has not been given enough weapons--that they are outgunned. There is money everywhere, guns everywhere. The thing that will tip the military balance is not more AK-47s, it's going to be anti-tank missiles, secure communications. That is the direction this is probably going to go.[...]
The 'case' against Hezbollah
"... On numerous occasions the complaint highlights individuals as either being "members", "operatives", or "supporters" of Hezbollah, but fails to provide evidence of these alleged connections, or clarify what defines the characteristics of these terms.
"It is being deliberately vague with these terms because they don’t have anything to connect it to Hezbollah," said Dratel. "When it talks of 'associations with Hezbollah', what does this mean? Some construction worker who helped in the reconstruction efforts following the 2006 war?"
On one occasion the complaint does go into detail of how one individual, Oussama Salhab, was a Hezbollah "operative". "During a border inspection of a fingerprint-encrypted laptop Salhab carried with him, [Customs and Border Protection] officers found, among other things, images of Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah; audio of the Hizballah anthem; images of Hizballah militants stomping on an Israeli flag…" it stated.
According to Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, political analyst and author of Hezbu’llah: Politics and Religion, the material found in Salhab’s possession only goes to prove he is not a member or operative of the movement.
"This is the best way of knowing they are not Hezbollah members," she told Al Jazeera. Members would not compromise themselves "by actually carrying this stuff around".
"These items are those of a groupie. A ‘member’ or ‘operative’ of the movement would definitely not be carrying anything on his persons that would associate him to Hezbollah," she concluded...."
Away with Camp David: "Washington & Cairo need to release themselves from their mutual tribulations"
"... Break-ups are hard. The United States and Egypt will always have great memories—all the help Washington provided developing Egypt’s infrastructure from sewerage and potable water to public health, the iconic photo of President Carter, President Sadat, and Prime Minister Begin shaking hands after signing the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, Operation Desert Shield/Desert Storm—but it is not enough to carry Cairo and Washington for the next three decades. If there is a bit of healthy distance between the two countries, Egypt might regain some of its lost regional luster, Washington will not be an easy target to blame if the Egyptian transition falters, and the two countries could very well find their way back to each other not as strategic partners, but as respectful allies. Whatever the long-term outcome, Washington and Cairo need to release themselves from their mutual tribulations...."
Monday, February 6, 2012
The Syrian Army collapsed (but you did not feel it!)
"... He said only a third of the army was at combat readiness due to defections or absenteeism, while remaining troops were demoralised, most of its Sunni officers had fled, been arrested, or sidelined, and its equipment was degraded...
"There is no time," he said. "There is a serious acceleration under way due to the collapse of the army and the security system.
"We want very urgent intervention, outside of the security council due to the Russian veto. We want a coalition similar to what happened in Kosovo and the Ivory Coast."
..."
An interesting detail: 'Pakistan supporting Iran's retaliation?'
Under the radar.
"... An Israeli attack might have other unintended consequences. A European diplomat based in Pakistan, permitted to speak only under condition of anonymity, said that if Israel attacks, Islamabad will have no choice but to support any Iranian retaliation. That raises the specter of putting a nuclear-armed Pakistan at odds with Israel, widely believed to have its own significant nuclear arsenal..."
"Work without hope draws nectar in a sieve & hope without an object cannot live."
(Shadow writer's pseudo: Al Walid bin Talal)Bahrain?
"...The results were essentially the same after the toppling of regimes in Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Syria and Yemen. So capricious were the new revolutionary regimes in their arbitrary rule that many of their subjects came to pine for their colonial masters, who at least observed a modicum of fidelity to cherished Western political precepts and hallowed legal norms...
If there is a lesson to be learned from the Arab Spring, it is that the winds of change that are now blowing in the Middle East will eventually reach every Arab state. Now is therefore an opportune time, particularly for the Arab monarchical regimes, which still enjoy a considerable measure of public goodwill and legitimacy, to begin adopting measures that will bring about greater participation of the citizenry in their countries' political life....
Without such a commitment, peoples' hopes will eventually be dashed. As Samuel Taylor Coleridge wrote (here it comes) in one of his sonnets, "Work without hope draws nectar in a sieve. And hope without an object cannot live."
Sunday, February 5, 2012
This arm wrestle .. (FLC bets that Bashar al Assad will preside over Syria for years to come!)
"...He added that there would be an increase of diplomatic pressure on Russia and China to reverse its backing for Syria which would likely require even greater concessions from the US, Europe, and the Arab world..."
Fluctuating figures, ... but the instigating damage is usually done
"...@DamascusTweets Local Coordinating Cttees now says 39 deaths in Khalidieh, 8 in other districts of #Homs, and 8 outside city. #syria ..."
Syrian opposition fabrications becoming an embarrassment
BREAKING: BBC's Jim Muir says activist groups in #Syria are revising down death toll in #Homs significantly from earlier figure of 200.
Iranian naval vessels dock in Saudi Arabia
"...Two Iranian naval ships have docked in the Saudi port of Jeddah. Iranian officials say the move aims to project the country's "power on the open seas" and “confront Iranophobia.” The supply ship Kharg and destroyer Shaid Qandi docked on Saturday in the Red Sea port in line with orders from the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to Iran’s news agency, Fars....
Tehran says boosting its naval presence in international waters is in part motivated by the need to protect Iranian ships from Somali pirates. This is why Iranian vessels were deployed to the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden last year. In February 2011, for the first time ever, it also sent two naval vessels into the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal.
The rise in Iran’s naval activity comes amid a steep deterioration of its relations with the West. Its ties with Saudi Arabia are also in poor health, and have gone downhill fast since America accused Tehran of masterminding a plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington..."
'With Western options severely limited in Syria, US diplomats were counting (on at least) rhetorical solidarity at the UN from Russia'
"...Pentagon contacts tell us that Panetta was ‘a little ahead of the game’ but that the US military is firmly planning for an exit from Afghanistan. The Republican presidential contenders continue to promise a longer engagement, but we believe it is highly unlikely whether they would follow through if elected. The exit strategy is now deeply embedded in US strategy and budgetary planning. Of more immediate salience, Iran is much in the news. The analytic challenge is to separate the unceasing media and political drum beat about the imminence of an attack on Iran – by Israel unilaterally or in conjunction with the US – from the underlying reality of official exchanges between the two countries. In our conversations with the White House and Pentagon, there is no missing the concern of officials about statements by Israeli defense minister Barak that Iran is entering a ‘zone of immunity’ after which its nuclear program will become invulnerable to air attack (a program US government agencies still contend, ended in 2003'!) Nonetheless, US officials still believe that the high-level warnings to Israel of the dangers of military action are holding the line – at least for the moment. Elsewhere, the downward spiral in Egypt is raising hackles on Capitol Hill where US aid for Egypt is coming under intense scrutiny. At the Pentagon and State Department by contrast attitudes are more relaxed. Military to military relation continue to be good, with US military officials working hard to persuade their counterparts in the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces to maintain a steady commitment to reform. On Syria, the main fall out is likely to be deepening suspicion of Russian diplomacy once Prime Minister Putin return to the presidency. With Western options severely limited in Syria, US diplomats were counting on rhetorical solidarity at the UN from Russia. That this has been so hard to obtain bodes ill for the future of relations with Moscow. A highlight of next week’s Washington agenda will be the visit of China’s expected next president Xi Jinping. A polite reception is to be expected but trade and human rights issues will be close to the surface.
PBS'/ Newshour sides with Israel on Iran!
"... On the Newshour tonight there was a talking heads discussion between David Ignatius and David Makovsky the AIPAC/WiINEP person. The moderator was Ray Suarez.
Throughout this "contest" the assumption underlying the discussion was that Iran has a nuclear weapons program. This was clear in what both Makovsky and Ignatius said.
To make the matter worse, Suarez said at one point:
Ray, it is the position of the US governemnt that Iran DOES NOT have a nuclear weapons program and has not had one since 2003 That is our offical position, expressed in numerous documents of the IC as late as this week in Clapper's statement to the senate...""RAY SUAREZ: Before we close, I would like to hear from both of you about the cost-benefit analysis being made on both sides.
If you only slow down and don't stop the Iranian program, but unleash military strikes, could the possibilities for Iranian retaliation, for destabilization in the region be so severe, that the blowback is worse than what you accomplish with the attack?"
"The veto is not the end of the world", unless you don't bomb & invade Syria!
"... “The veto is not the end of the world. The revolution will continue and it will be victorious, God willing,” Radwan Ziadeh, wrote on his Facebook page...., he said, countries backing Syria’s opposition should form an “international coalition … whose aim will be to lead international moves....” Ziadeh said he expected French, U.S. and Arab support for a coalition.
A deeply sensitive question is whether such a coalition would back the Free Syrian Army, ....There appears to be deep hesitation among Western countries to back them, fearing that the opposition could turn more to force of arms and the country could be torn by outright civil war.
In an interview with Al-Arabiya TV on Saturday after the U.N. vote, the head of the Syrian National Council Burhan Ghalioun also spoke of an international coalition but sought to avoid talk of military support for the rebel fighters. However, he did say such support was possible “if necessary” to “protect the Syrian people.”..."
Amazing Study: 'China's UNSC veto prompted by Beijing's interest in Syria's market!'
Without Syria's market, the Chinese economic maelstrom would grind to a halt!!!
"... "Beijing's renewed interest in Damascus—the traditional terminus node of the ancient Silk Road ... indicates that China sees Syria as an important trading hub," according to a 2010 report from The Jamestown Foundation, a Washington-based research and analysis institute....."
The "Iranian Menace" in the US & hysteria based on ....bull!
So the Shin Bet 'document' that has been exclusively seen by ABC, threatening and scaring American Jews from an "Iranian menace" is based on this:
"... “In the past few weeks, there has been an escalation in threats against Israeli and Jewish targets around the world, ... many demonstrations against Israel are expected to be concentrated on Israeli embassies and consulates. Such demonstrations have occurred internationally as well as domestically. These demonstrations could potentially turn violent at local synagogues, restaurants, the Israeli Embassy and other Israeli sites. … Law enforcement should be vigilant when making periodic checks at all Jewish facilities...."Demonstrations that could turn violent! So with all this churning they come up with this as evidence?
Death knell of a NATO-Qatari-Saudi plan for Syria!
Reminder: The US used its veto at the UN over 70 times during the 20th century. On the majority of occasions, the US vetoed resolutions that were favoured by the majority of the world's nations. Most importantly, the US vetoed over 40 UNSC resolutions condeming Israeli slaughter of Arabs, and yet, Susan Rice (our next secretary of State) is "disgusted"!
"... The Arab League plan was freighted with geopolitical significance. Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, which supported the plan, are locked in a regional power struggle with Iran, a key ally of Syria. The Arab countries view the prospect of Assad's departure as a blow against Iran in its bid to wield wider influence in the Middle East.
But Assad still has support among many Syrians, especially Christians and other minorities who view his secular administration as a bulwark against Iraq-style sectarian warfare. Assad has blamed Islamic "terrorists" for his troubles...
Some diplomats voiced the hope that a revised version of the U.N. resolution could be proposed at some point. But after two joint vetoes — the Russians and Chinese blocked an earlier resolution on Syria in October — there is no guarantee that a consensus can be reached on any wording about Syria...
The U.N. vote Saturday was a stinging rebuke for the United States and its allies, who had expressed hope as recently as late Friday that Russia might be persuaded to join the resolution, or at least abstain....
Washington's U.N. ambassador, Susan Rice, said after the vote that the United States was "disgusted" y the veto, but vowed that the Obama administration would "ratchet up the pressure on the Assad regime until finally the people's voice prevails."...
The Russian U.N. ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, complained that Western nations had undermined the chance for a political solution by "pushing the opposition towards power."... The Russians also complained that the plan would have obliged the government to withdraw its forces from cities and towns, but no such requirement was imposed on insurgents.
"When the Syrian government forces were pulling out, armed groups were pulling in," Churkin said..."
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