"...And should economic recovery remain anemic, hic chances of re-election will dim. In terms of foreign policy, the most important impact will be on the Middle East peace process and China. On the former, Obama’s ability to pressure Israel will further diminish. At the same time, House Republicans will be more sympathetic to Israeli positions on Iran. On the latter, we expect a bumpy ride, with House Republicans willing to call into question the ‘strategic and economic dialogue’ with Beijing. By contrast, over Iraq and Afghanistan, Obama can expect a grudging acceptance of his policies of drawdown. The new Republican intake contains few who are committed to an extension of US operations in either country. ..."
Saturday, November 6, 2010
"... Obama can expect a grudging acceptance of his policies of Iraq & Afghanistan drawdowns..."
Friday, November 5, 2010
IRAN, GEORGIA: Washington wary of warming ties between Tehran & U.S. ally
"... But Iran’s new-found friendship has Georgia -- the United States' closest ally in the Caucasus, and the recipient of roughly $4.5 billion in Western aid in the past two years -- dancing the diplomatic two-step. Earlier this week, Georgian Deputy Foreign Minister Nino Kalandadze saluted Iran as one of the most powerful countries in the region, while stressing -- repeatedly -- that Tbilisi’s relationship with its Persian neighbor is solely about trade and tourism. “We largely ... depend on the United States for political support. Therefore, it is absolutely groundless to suggest that we are somehow questioning this strategic cooperation,” she said at a news conference. “We have no under-the-table relations with anyone, especially Iran.”
After ignoring the Caucasus for decades in favor of fellow Muslims in the Persian Gulf and South Asia, Iran has been largely excluded from the geopolitical chess game in the South Caucasus, where Turkey and Russia dominate. Now, beset by sanctions and with its internal politics in turmoil, Iran is cultivating new relationships with Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, hoping to regain its once-potent role as a regional power, explore new trade partners and -- at the very least -- keep the South Caucasus from becoming a base for the U.S. military. Sometimes building new friendships means opening the pocketbook. This past year, Tehran has offered to help Tbilisi build a new hydroelectric plant, made good on a plan to reopen a long-abandoned Iranian consulate in western Georgia, and sent 15,000 Iranian tourists on chartered planes to Georgia's struggling Black Sea resorts. Iran also said it wants to buy nearly 10 times as much gas from Azerbaijan as it did last year, and proposed building a $1.2-billion railroad linking Armenia to the Persian Gulf...."
Why France Is al-Qaeda's New Target
"...So far, French security services have foiled planned attacks. Last year, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb's number three was arrested on his way to France and accused of coordinating multiple suicide attacks. As early as 1994, the ancestor of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, the Algerian GIA, hijacked a plane that they wanted to crash into the Eiffel Tower - French Special Forces stormed the plane and saved the day. And they are still trying today: In recent weeks, acting on credible Algerian intelligence, French authorities have evacuated the Eiffel Tower twice. While current intelligence points at Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, as well as Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, homegrown radicalized terrorists also pose a threat ..."
'George, I'm asking you to bomb the compound'
"..."George, I'm asking you to bomb the compound," Olmert told Bush, according to the book, a copy of which was obtained by Reuters. Bush says he discussed options with his national security team. A bombing mission was considered "but bombing a sovereign country with no warning or announced justification would create severe blowback," he writes. (HUH?)
A covert raid was discussed but it was considered too risky to slip a team in and out of Syria undetected. Bush received an intelligence assessment from then-CIA Director Mike Hayden, who reported that analysts had high confidence the plant housed a nuclear reactor, but low confidence of a Syrian nuclear weapons program.
Bush says he told Olmert, "I cannot justify an attack on a sovereign nation unless my intelligence agencies stand up and say it's a weapons program."
Olmert was disappointed at Bush's decision to recommend a strategy of using diplomacy backed up by the threat of force to deal with Syria over the facility. "Your strategy is very disturbing to me," Olmert told Bush, according to the book. Bush denies charges that arose at the time that he had given a "green light" for Israel to attack the installation. "Prime Minister Olmert hadn't asked for a green light, and I hadn't given one. He had done what he believed was necessary to protect Israel," Bush writes. Bush writes that Olmert's "execution of the strike" against the Syrian compound made up for the confidence he had lost in the Israelis during their 2006 war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Bush feels was bungled. ..."
Oxford Analytica: "both Shia's & Sunnis look back to Saddam's rule with ...nostalgia..."
 "Iraq's insurgents are demonstrating greater ability to coordinate attacks, a reflection of rising political tension and government mishandling of the security portfolio.... Security in 2010. In general terms, the effort to stabilise Iraq stagnated in the first nine months of 2010: In January, there were 618 reported security incidents and in September there were 527.... There have been important variations between different regions: violence has largely been sustained by steady increases in attacks in Baghdad and the old Ba'athist heartland between Ramadi, Tikrit and Baquba; with some exceptions outlined below, other areas continue to stabilise. Political drivers. Three interlinked sets of political drivers have allowed insurgent groups to recover some capability in Baghdad and the areas around the capital:
Renewed campaign. Insurgent groups in northern and central Iraq have been developing a narrative, organisational structure and operational plans configured to support a prolonged anti-government insurgency after US military withdrawal. The objective according to the Jaish Rajal al-Tariqah al-Naqshbandia (JRTN), the most significant Ba'athist-controlled insurgent movement, is to oppose the Shia-led government until it is replaced by a government drawing on Iraqis of all sects and backgrounds, including the technocratic and military class who ran the country during the Ba'athist era. JRTN has emerged as a powerful coordinating force:
Iranian-backed militancy. Reported violent incidents remain few in the nine predominately Shia southern provinces, with Basra witnessing an average of 15 reported incidents per month in 2010 and all other provinces suffering fewer than five attacks in most months. Nevertheless, Iranian-backed militant groups in these provinces are capable of some of the most advanced operations of any groups and could present a more significant threat under certain conditions. At present their attacks comprise roadside bomb attacks on US convoys and a steady sequence of rocket attacks on the International (Green) Zone, Basra Air Station and other bases with a US presence. These groups are capable of surging attacks if they were ordered to do so by Iraqi political factions (such as Moqtada al-Sadr's movement) or by Iran. Warnings throughout the summer of 2010 have suggested that Iranian-backed groups may be seeking to gather new Western hostages to trade for arrested militants or to hold as bargaining chips to deter a US or Israeli attack on Iran...." |
"None of that amounts to an 'existential threat' ... and that matters!"
"...We can, I think, roll our eyes a little at the latter fear. Jihadists, as we well know, can interpret anything as a providential sign of their eventual triumph. And the occupation of the West Bank is easily a more effective recruitment tool for largely Sunni terrorists to fight the West than a Shiite nuclear bomb. The former fear is, in contrast, perfectly legitimate, but not existential. Yes, a nuclear Iran would become even more emboldened - especially after the US spent a trillion dollars destroying the most viable counter-weight, Iraq. Yes, this could lead to some wealthy Arab states' appeasing the new regional power, or seeking their own nuclear balance; yes, it could galvanize Hezbollah and Hamas; and it could undermine confidence in Israel's long-term survival.
But none of that amounts to an existential threat - and that matters ...
So it seems to me that Israel wants to bomb Iran not because it fears it will be annihilated, but because it likes its total nuclear monopoly in the region, because this monopoly gives it both a sense of invulnerability and the security umbrella to continue to occupy and settle the West Bank indefinitely, if they decide it's in their interests, and police its wider borders with impunity.... Under those circumstances, it seems pretty clear to me that Israel is for the foreseeable future both incapable of letting go of the West Bank and incapable of being restrained if Iran goes nuclear. The question for the US therefore becomes: what then? Well, you cannot stop an independent country attacking another one - especially after America's own pre-emptive war on the basis of alleged WMDs - and you cannot imagine US troops shooting down Israeli planes flying across Iraq or Saudi Arabia. And the Israelis clearly have no interest in giving the US an actual veto over such an adventure....... So this ally would either try to fool the US or present it with a fait accompli, a military assault that could wreak havoc on US troops, global interests and the entire West, and ignite World War III for good measure.
My own view is that, under these circumstances, if Israel continues to refuse to budge on the West Bank, US interests are affected enough to lay out its own preferred final status boundaries and conditions for a Palestinian state, and press forward on those lines at the UN, regardless of the position of the Israeli government. At some point, the U.S. has to stand up for itself and its own interests if an ally refuses to be reasonable in lending a hand.... And, in the end, to take the longest view, I do not really see how it's possible to prevent a country like Iran, with a population as skilled and as educated as it is nationalist, from becoming a nuclear power if it really really wants to...... Khamenei is more toxic than even the crazier West Bank settlers; except that, unlike the settlers, he has not invaded and occupied anyone else's country recently, or, unlike the Israeli government, bombed the living crap out of, say, Kurdistan the way Israel did Gaza. ............ in practice, there is little the current president can do to prod Israel, except lay out an American ideal solution to the Israel-Palestine question, corral international support for it, offer as many enticements to Israel to come along, all the while ramping up sanctions against Tehran and hoping for some kind of diplomatic off-ramp or delay. This seems to me to be the obvious next move. If the Israelis will not or cannot move, then America should.
Obama shoud not be intimidated and move forward. ..."
Sensing Peace, astute Mahmoud Abbas will give the US more time to 'relaunch'...
"..."They're saying that efforts may need two or three more weeks," Erekat told reporters after a meeting with U.S. Mideast peace envoy George Mitchell in Washington. "If the Americans needed two more weeks they can have the two more weeks," Erekat said. "We're waiting to hear from the Americans and there is no reason to convene the Arab follow-up committee until we hear what the Americans have to offer." ..."
AIPAC & "Neocon" Congress: 'Concerns about arms sale to Saudi Arabia'
The LETTER (link) is "supported by the pro-Israel group the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and circulated by Reps. Howard Berman (D-Ca.) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fl.), the outgoing & incoming chairs of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, raising concerns about the $60 billion U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia .... :“We are writing to raise concerns and pose a number of strategic questions about the impact such sales would have on the national security interests of the United States and our allies,”..."
US audit: "Security gains in Iraq could crumble if U.S. forces leave on schedule..."
"Hard won security gains..."
"... The Obama administration could be overstating what U.S. diplomats can do to contain Iraq’s ethnic and sectarian tensions without U.S. military forces, a State Department audit concluded Tuesday, raising fresh concerns about the planned pullout of American troops next year. The auditors also questioned whether American diplomats who remain behind will be adequately protected against insurgent violence, and their report faulted Washington for its planning of the transition from a U.S. military-led mission in Iraq to one run by American civilians in 2011. The audit’s findings echo worries expressed by some U.S. defense analysts and former diplomats. They say hard-won security gains in Iraq could crumble if U.S. forces leave on schedule.... Ryan Crocker, ambassador to Iraq from 2007-09, said last week that the U.S. military’s departure from Iraq will likely create a security vacuum and set Iraq on a dangerous course. He doubted whether the State Department has the means to keep Iraq stable. “I worry that what we’re seeing is a transition from a military lead to no lead,” he said. “Simply put, the capacity does not exist on the civilian side to take on the vast array of roles and missions that the military has so ably performed in Iraq.”"
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Egypt intelligence chief to Peres: Mubarak is worried about region
"..."[Egyptian President Hosni] Mubarak is gravely concerned about the future of the region," Suleiman told Peres, explaining that he was sent to Israel to ensure that the "momentum of the peace talks is not lost."..."
EXCLUSIVE: Abbas accuses Iran of 'sabotaging' otherwise smooth Peace talks, but threatens resignation should they face obstacles!
"... Abbas on Thursday accused Iran of trying using local Islamist elements to sabotage the Middle East peace process... Abbas also hinted that he might resign from his post if Israel continued its policies in the West Bank...."
Bush's memoires (a book not a pamphlet): "I came close to dumping Cheney..."
"... In another passage from the book, according to The New York Times, Bush wrote that he considered dropping Dick Cheney from his 2004 re-election bid to dispel the vice president's image as the "Darth Vader" of the White House and to "demonstrate that I was in charge."..."
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
"Prominent" International Judiciary Source: "I believe that would be a return to assassinations ...but I rule out any "serious" assassinations..."
"... In an interview with Naharnet in The Hague, the U.N. official added that he fears new assassinations would target individuals directly related to the U.N. probe .... However, he ruled out any "serious" targeting of Lebanese politicians or STL staff.......... The former Hariri probe employee noted that the Serbian authorities' boycott of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in the nineties of last century -- in addition to the committed massacres, the fought wars and the political and ethnical turmoil the former Yugoslav nations had witnessed – had not led to halting the mission of the Yugoslavia tribunal. "On the contrary, those who had obstructed its work ended up in its (Yugoslavia tribunal's) detention places and then appeared before its judges prior to being convicted and sent to prisons in European countries with which the tribunal had signed agreements in this regard," the U.N. official added. ..."
Will the Elections Change Obama's Iran Policy?
"Talks over Iran's nuclear program appear likely to resume in Europe later this month, but nobody's expecting Tehran to cry the only word the U.S. wants to hear: "Uncle." Indeed, U.S. officials are telling news organizations that they don't expect much from the talks to which Iran agreed to on Oct. 29 at the invitation of E.U. foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. That's O.K., a senior official told the New York Times; that will just give sanctions more time to bite, while demonstrating a U.S. readiness to talk that will help build international support for further coercive action. And with President Obama bloodied by his party's midterm elections setbacks, some in Washington — most notably senior Washington Post columnist David Broder — are even publicly suggesting that Obama's best hope of winning re-election may lie in uniting the country behind him in a showdown with Iran.
There's no indication that the President or other key decisionmakers have abandoned their skepticism of a military solution to the standoff, based on an awareness that the consequences of starting a war could be more dangerous than any threat currently posed by Iran. But the Times reports that a debate is underway within the Administration over whether Obama should be amplifying the threat of military action if Iran remains defiant. The Administration's Iran point-man, Dennis Ross, has made clear in his own writings on the matter that he believes Iran will only back down if it believes it faces a credible threat of military action. But there's currently no legal basis for military action — all relevant U.N. resolutions have been carefully crafted to avoid giving the U.S. the loopholes used by the Bush Administration to claim legal authority for attacking Iraq — because most of those nations supporting sanctions remain resolutely opposed to military action. So threatening force could potentially break up whatever diplomatic consensus currently exists, and that would suit Iran. But even if Obama is inclined to resist any temptation to rally a more hawkish post-election legislature by ratcheting up confrontation with Iran, he'll find it even more difficult, after the election, to compromise with a regime so widely reviled on Capitol Hill. And without compromise, a diplomatic solution remains unlikely......while they believe sanctions have been more effective than Tehran had anticipated, they're aware that Iran still has plenty of trade and investment from its neighbors and key players such as China, and it's unlikely to arrive at the table in a conciliatory mood....... The U.S. is also not approaching the talks in a compromising mood...... For the U.S., the talks are an opportunity to send Iran a message that pressure will increase until Tehran is ready to yield; for Iran, the negotiations are an opportunity to make clear that it has no intention of backing down, confident it can ride out the sanctions and any other pressure the U.S. can plausibly muster. The same stalemate persisted through the second term of George W. Bush's Administration, and resulted in Iran crossing the threshold to become a nuclear-capable state by mastering enrichment. But Obama, under pressure from an even more hawkish and assertive Congress, is unlikely to have the luxury enjoyed by his predecessor of maintaining a passive hard line while Iran's nuclear capacity grows. ..."
Michel Sleiman will preside over an empty 'dialogue'...
While Saad Hariri wraps up his 'last minute meeting with the Doke of York & Sarah Fergusson', .... Missing are, Hezbollah, Aoun, Frangieh, Jumblatt, the Armenians & the Syrian-Social-Nationalists ... On to the Council of Ministers and to the barricades?
Washington hurriedly approves an extra US$10 million to support the Hariri Tribunal ...
Statement by US representative to the UNSC, Amb. Susan Rice:
"... The United States is pleased to announce that we will transfer an additional $10 million to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. This brings total U.S. funding for the Tribunal to $30 million since its inception. We applaud the brave and tireless work of the Tribunal’s staff members, who continue to carry out their duties in a professional, apolitical manner. The recent attack on three Tribunal staff members in Beirut is yet another attempt to create a false choice between justice and stability in Lebanon and to prevent the independent Tribunal from carrying out its Security Council mandate. We condemn such acts .... The establishment of the Tribunal was a clear signal that Lebanon’s sovereignty is non-negotiable.....We commend all of the donor countries that have contributed to the Tribunal and we encourage the entire international community to continue to support the Tribunal, financially and politically...."
U.S. designates Jundullah as terrorist group
"... The United States has designated the Iranian Baloch group Jundullah as a terrorist organization, the State Department announced Wednesday. The designation is interesting, because Iranian officials have voiced suspicions in the past that the United States may be providing covert support to the group which has carried out terrorist attacks that have killed Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps officers and civilians, which the United States has always denied. ..... some Washington Iran experts saw the designation as a "signal" to Iran mindful of upcoming negotiations expected to take place in Europe later this month. The designation of Jundullah shows "one bureaucratic fight in favor of engagement was won," one Washington Iran expert said on condition of anonymity. "But whether it's sufficient or not and how it is followed up remains to be seen."
Designation: "... On November 3, 2010 the Secretary of State announced the designation of Jundallah, a violent extremist organization that operates primarily in the province of Sistan va Balochistan of Iran, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) .......... Since its inception in 2003, Jundallah has engaged in numerous attacks resulting in the death and maiming of scores of Iranian civilians and government officials, primarily in Iran’s Sistan va Balochistan province........."
"Israel firsters happy with election results"
"One prominent pro-Israel lobbying group in Washington is already praising the GOP takeover of the House of Representatives as a net benefit for Israel. "While Democrats are likely to keep control of the U.S. Senate, Republicans will take over the U.S. House of Representatives following Tuesday's elections. This is likely to have implications for Israel-related issues such as Israel's relationship with the United States and the push for sanctions against Iran," said an e-mail blasted out by The Israel Project only minutes after news stations called the turnover of House control a certainty. "The takeover of the House by Republicans is great news for Israel and her supporters," the email quotes Ari Fleischer, White House spokesman under President George W. Bush, as saying. "The House leadership and almost every single GOP member is rock-solid behind Israel. At times like this, Israel needs friends everywhere."... The Israel Project identifies several key Congressional changes that could impact the Israel debate on Capitol Hill. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) will take over the House Foreign Affairs Committee from Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA). House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH), who the Project calls "staunchly pro-Israel," will likely be the next Speaker of the House and Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) could become Majority Leader, "the highest-ranking post a Jew has ever held in Congress," the e-mail points out. The Project also points toward Rep. Ed Royce (R-CA), who could become the new head of the Foreign Affairs subcommittee on terrorism, non-proliferation, and trade, and whoever will replaceBarney Frank (D-MA) as head of the Finance Committee, "a key avenue for sanctions against Iran." The top three contenders for chairman are Spencer Bachus, (R-AL), Pete King (R-NY), and Royce...."
The Syria-Israel-Hezbollah Triangle
"... In addition to supplying long range weapons such as M-600 and scuds missiles to Hezbollah, Syria was recently reported to have entered into a military alliance with Hezbollah, consisting of joint headquarters which would take hold in the event of war with Israel.....
While it remains a distinct possibility that Israel would attack Lebanese targets during a future conflagration with Hezbollah, it is doubtful that Israel would willingly extend the war to Syria. This remains the case even if Israel were to set itself an ambitious (and unrealistic) aim of eliminating Hezbollah. Israel would inevitably face condemnation from all corners of the international community; from allies and even the US, and would be hard pressed to find approval from Washington, keen to engage Syria and concerned about Syria's ability to make life difficult for troops in neighboring Iraq. An Israeli attack and the lack of US support would make the likelihood of an emergency UN Security Council meeting and subsequent binding resolution a near guarantee, limiting Israel's time and ability to launch a credible and effective operation against Syria. Indeed, expanding a war against Hezbollah would effectively assure Israel of international isolation. Following the US lead, Europe, Canada and Australia would outwardly condemn Israel's actions in the harshest tone possible and would add fuel to the fire of the 'boycott Israel' movement. Much closer to home, Israel would face unrest not only in the Palestinian territories, but also in Arab neighborhoods in the north of Israel. Egypt, Jordan and Turkey would recall their ambassadors (assuming that Turkey's ambassador will soon be re-stationed in Tel Aviv) and face virulent public demands that future relations with Israel be reassessed....
But assuming that, as Leiberman predicted, Israel did go to war against Syria, attacking Syrian targets, and destroying its airforce and the Assad regime, the question of Assad's successor would become urgent. It is highly doubtful that Israel would want to open such a pandora's box. Despite the rhetoric, posturing and concern over Syria's ties to Iran and Hezbollah, Israel has enjoyed over two decades of relative quiet on its Syrian front.....
A future war between Israel and Hezbollah is unlikely to involve Syria, and if there were any kind of engagement it would be on a small scale, with Israel most likely attacking the transfer of balance-altering weaponry. If Israel were to attack Syria without a significant casus belli, it could face unprecedented diplomatic isolation as well as thousands of rockets aimed at its population centers and military targets. Assad, on the other hand, stands to lose his hold on power if he becomes embroiled in a large-scale conflict with Israel. Both parties have compelling reasons to want to avoid such an eventuality. There is no cause for complacency, however. In a border wherehedging trees can lead to a fatal exchange of fire, and Iranian nuclear ambitions could provoke an Israeli attack, unpredictability remains the best presumption."
Turkey & NATO on collision course over Iran?
"... Turkey's reluctance to consider Tehran a nuclear threat has put Ankara on a collision course with the US and European Nato members, as the alliance is negotiating the terms of a missile defence system aimed primarily at potential threats from Iran.
Ankara's condition for its endorsement of a Europe-wide missile defence shield, to be agreed by Nato leaders in Lisbon on 19 November, is for Iran not to be specifically mentioned as a threat.
"We do not see any threat from any of our neighbouring countries, whether it is Iran, Russia, Syria or others," Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu said during the weekend as he was visiting China.
"I state quite clearly that Turkey will not be a frontal or flanking country [of the Nato missile shield] and we do not want to see again a zone of the Cold War and its psychology in our region," he added, noting that any Nato shield should be developed along these principles."We do not see any threat from any of our neighbouring countries, whether it is Iran, Russia, Syria or others," Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu said during the weekend as he was visiting China.
The line has irked the US, the main motor behind the shield, which is an upgraded version of a controversial plan by the previous George W. Bush administration. .....
Meanwhile, the Turkish Security Council last week approved changes in its national security document, called the "Red Book," reportedly removing Iran and Syria and adding Israel to the list of countries posing a "major threat."....
Adding to Ankara's reluctance in backing the Nato shield are America's close links to Israel. According to the daily newspaper Today's Zaman, Ankara has sought and reportedly received assurances from the US that intelligence gathered using the missile shield's sensors will not be shared with Israel. Under Washington's plans, the ballistic missile defence system would be rolled out in two phases. In the next two years, US Navy ships would be deployed in the Mediterranean. This would be followed by land-based interceptors in Romania and Poland and a high-tech radar in Bulgaria or Turkey by 2015....."
Baghdad burns again, just when the 'Saudi initiative' is declined ...
"... The death toll from a series of bomb blasts in mainly Shi'ite areas of Baghdad on Tuesday has reached 64 with 360 wounded, Iraq's health minister said.The bombings occurred hours after a memorial service for some of the 52 hostages and police killed in a church raid on Sunday, and as the Iraqi government vowed to improve security for Iraq's Christian minority. ..... Iraq remains in political limbo almost eight months after an inconclusive election, raising fears Sunni Islamist groups such as al Qaeda might exploit tension to reignite a sectarian war......."
"remember him?"
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Jeffrey Feltman logic to Syria: "Commit suicide & maybe (maybe) we'll talk about those 'Heights'..."
".... "Syria and the United States have taken some modest steps to see if we can improve the bilateral relationship," said Jeffrey D. Feltman, the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs. "But this cannot go very far as long as Syria's friends are undermining stability in Lebanon. We have made that absolutely clear to the Syrians. There is a cost to the potential in our bilateral relationship to what Syria's friends are doing in Lebanon."......
There are growing concerns about Lebanon's political stability. The coalition government of the prime minister, Saad Hariri, son of Rafik, appears fragile. Meanwhile, a triumphal visit to Lebanon last month by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who made a provocative tour of the border with Israel, has alarmed some in the region.
Feltman's comments came just days after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad lashed out at Washington, accusing it of sowing chaos across the world. "Is Afghanistan stable? Is Somalia stable? Did they bring stability to Lebanon in 1983?" Assad said in an interview with al-Hayat newspaper, referring to U.S. intervention in Lebanon's 15-year civil war that ended in 1990.
The Obama administration has dispatched numerous envoys to meet with Assad in an effort to wean him away from the Iranian camp and to draw him into peace talks with Israel. Feltman discounted Iranian influence on Syria, saying that unless Damascus mends relations with Washington, it has no chance of winning the return of the Golan Heights, .... "Syria has said that it wishes to have its territorial expectations met through a peace agreement with Israel and that Syria recognizes the essential role that we can play in achieving that," Feltman said. "So this suggests to me that Syria is in fact interested in a better relationship with us. But our interests in a comprehensive peace doesn't mean that we are going to start trading our other interests in Iraq or Lebanon in order to get Damascus to like us better."
Feltman said that the administration is "deeply concerned" about Lebanon. He described his recent visit there as a show of support for President Michel Suleiman and a reaffirmation of U.S. support for the tribunal's work. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton also recently called Suleiman, who has the difficult job of managing Lebanon's deeply polarized political space.
Feltman said that given such divisions, it was important for the United States and others "to show there is not a vacuum on the other side" and support the viability of the Lebanese state. "No matter how much Hezbollah huffs and puffs, the special tribunal for Lebanon's work continues," he said.
But Feltman refrained from naming any consequences for Syria and Iran if they undermine the Lebanese government, except to say that Syria risked losing an opportunity to improve ties with Washington.....
Feltman rejected the notion that Ahmadinejad's visit would have long-lasting effects. He noted that Ahmadinejad was in trouble back home, suggesting that his trip was part of "the age-old custom of leaders, of when they have troubles at home, [who] tend to try to dabble in foreign policy and stage some sort of triumphant foreign tour."
'Grenada ... 1983'...'
Feltman also pushed back against the theory that Syria has spurned Obama's entreaties because it believes Iran is winning power and influence in the region. "I hear these tales that Iran is winning in Iraq, but I don't see any examples of the facts supporting that argument," he said, ticking off setbacks that he said Iran had suffered in its effort to influence the shaping of the new Iraqi government."
Oil & Gas ... tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean
"... Turkey has warned the Lebanese and the ROC governments that it is "determined to protect its rights and interests" and will "not allow attempts to erode them." Turkish officials, however, believe that Lebanon and the ROC will not start exploration any time soon. Amid mounting tension in Lebanon over the proceedings of a United Nations investigation into the 2005 killing of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Ankara believes that parliament is unlikely to focus on the agreement once it is presented for ratification.As a result, Turkey and Israel may be laughing all the way to the bank. Israel has completed preliminary exploration and is preparing to begin extracting gas in 2012. Israel hopes the oil and gas finds will make it energy-independent, but its preliminary efforts have Lebanon up in arms. Staking its claim on the potential reserves, Lebanon sees newly found oil and gas wealth as its ticket to paying off its $50 billion national debt.Lebanon accuses Israel of intending to siphon the gas from reserves off the northern Israeli coast that it says are rightfully Lebanese. Israel denies (hahaha) the claim and says that the three fields it has invested in lie between it and Cyprus.The largest of the fields, Leviathan, is estimated to hold 16 trillion cubic feet of gas worth billions of dollars...."
UNIFIL Commander: "US forces tried to enter the Lebanese fray in July 2006' ...and to have 'eyes & ears' within my command..."
Siniora's 'Rome 2006' Plan'...
In his new "Un ete de feu au Liban", the former commander of the UNIFIL, Gen. Alain Pelligrini exposes for the first time US attempts to overwhelm the UNIFIL's with "American officers in command & liaisons ... apparently, in order to offer logistical support to the UNIFIL by sending NATO or international forces under UN auspices..." But Pelligrini goes on to doubt US intentions of actually partaking in actual combat and sees the US officers' presence in UNIFIL's command as an attempt to implent "eyes & ears in the theater" in order to "relay data & facilitate the transfer of collaborators to Israel...!" (Below, As Safir's interview)
المحاولة في «صيف من نار» بدأت بمكالمة هاتفية للملحق العسكري الأميركي في بيروت، وفي ساعة مبكرة من صبيحة السابع والعشرين من تموز للجنرال بلّيغريني: «عرض عليّ أن ألحق بأركاني ضابطين أميركيين، وأربعة آخرين، يعملون كضباط ارتباط، في حال القيام بعملية مشتركة، لقد نشرت الولايات المتحدة (قبالة السواحل اللبنانية) وحدة التدخل البحرية الرابعة والعشرين، وهي وحدة قادرة على التدخل في منطقة عملياتي، ومستعدّة لتزويدي بالتعزيزات الضرورية في حال القيام بأي عملية». والعرض الأميركي «لمساعدة قوات اليونيفيل» على القيام بعمليات، خلال حرب تموز، صادف اجتماعات في روما، درست إمكانية إرسال قوات دولية، تحت أعلام الأمم المتحدة.
«إن الأميركيين، باستثناء زاوية النظر الإسرائيلية المشوّهة، لا يملكون معلومات كافية عن الأوضاع على الأرض. إن مشاركة فرنسا والصين، في قيادة اليونيفيل، تسمح لهما، مضافاً إلى ما يجمعه بعض الفرنسيين على الأرض، باستكمال الصورة، وهذا ما يشكّل ميزة جوهرية عندما تحين ساعة التفاوض على حل النزاع. هل يبحث الأميركيون، ببثهم الأعين والآذان في قيادة أركاني، عن الحصول على تلك المعلومات، تحت غطاء عمليات مفترضة؟ هذا ممكن، لأنني لا أعتقد أنهم جادون في رغبتهم بالتدخل في العمليات»، يكتب بليغريني.
ويستكمل بلّيغريني روايته عن الولايات المتحدة التي كان من المحتمل أن يستوي لها التدخل عسكرياً في حرب تموز، عبر الناتو، بعد تعثر الهجوم الإسرائيلي ضد «حزب الله». وبالتوازي في نيويورك كانت تجري مفاوضات، لدراسة احتمالات التدخل عبر قوات الأطلسي. ويروي بلّيغريني: «كانت البلدان الغربية، باستثناء فرنسا، في مشاوراتها في نيويورك، متفقة على لوم «اليونيفيل» لعدم فاعليتها، وتحاول، بشكل خاص، إحلال قوات أخرى، من دون قبعات زرقاء، يرسلها الناتو أو الاتحاد الأوروبي، قوة متعددة الجنسيات، كان الرئيس (الأميركي السابق) جورج بوش يتمنى رسمياً، جمعها بأقصى سرعة، من دون انتظار وقف إطلاق النار».
هل كان من المحتمل أن يتحوّل جنوب الليطاني إلى منطقة عمليات لقوات من الناتو «نعم»، قال بلّيغريني لـ«السفير»: «لو اضطررنا لأسباب لوجستية إلى الانسحاب، أو بسبب الجرحى، لما كنا سنعود إلى جنوب لبنان».
ماذا رفض بلّيغريني العرض الأميركي في اللحظة نفسها؟ الخوف من التجسس على أركانه! «من المعروف أن إسرائيل لا تستفيد من الذخائر الأميركية المتقدّمة فحسب، بل مما تجمعه أقمارها الصناعية من معلومات. بوسع الضباط الأميركيين لو انضمّوا إلى أركان اليونيفيل، أن ينقلوا إلى قيادتهم، ومنها إلى الجيش الإسرائيلي، معلومات عن الأوضاع على الأرض، مما يعرّض مبدأ حيادها للخطر. من الممكن أيضاً أن يكونوا على استعداد لتسهيل تهريب عملاء لبنانيين لإسرائيل عبر توجيه المروحيات المحمولة على متن سفن وحدة التدخل الأميركية»...."
Monday, November 1, 2010
Johnny Abdo: "I am afraid that Damascus' allies in Lebanon know what it wants, whereas Riyadh's allies are lost ..."
On MTV on Walid Abboud's 'Bimawdoo3iyah', Abdo was very critical of the Saudis, describing Riyadh's policies in Lebanon (and the region) as 'hesitant & unfocused.' He was equally critical of the US (Jeffrey Feltman) for failing to provide the remnants of March14 with something more than a pep talk. Abdo said that America failed to tell us the "We-will-do-this-and-that" if need be....
Senior Saudi Prince boasting: "We have no al-Qaeda sleeper cells in this country; if we did we would have woken them up long ago"
".... So why the Saudi connection when AQAP is supposed to be anchored in Yemen? The answer is that much of the brains of that organisation come from fanatical yet well-educated young Saudi jihadists who have slipped across the semi-porous Saudi-Yemeni border to escape the security crackdown in their own country to join AQAP in its remote hideouts in Yemen's Shabwa, Marib and Abyan provinces. Saudi intelligence keeps elaborate files on each of these departed militants, knowing that their prime target is the Saudi government itself, its leading princes, its security officials and sometimes its oil infrastructure.
Before the 2003 triple suicide bombings by AQAP in Riyadh - which killed more than 30 people - Saudi intelligence had a poor handle on what al-Qaeda was up to and what it was capable of. Saudi Arabia's counter-terrorism campaign has made it difficult for al-Qaeda to operate there A leading prince even boasted that "we have no al-Qaeda sleeper cells in this country; if we did we would have woken them up long ago". He was in for a rude surprise...... Others believe the Saudis have been lenient to the point of being gullible, releasing dangerous jihadists onto the streets who go straight on to join or rejoin al-Qaeda. Either way, the effect of the Saudi intelligence-driven counter-terrorism campaign has been to make Saudi Arabia a difficult country for al-Qaeda to operate in. Hence the merging, in January 2009, of the Saudi and Yemeni branches into a small but rejuvenated and clearly dangerous entity - the al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula"
Israeli Minister: "Israel knew of the INTENT to send 'mail bombs' before they were sent..."
Need we ask?
"... Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz hinted Monday that Israel received warning of the intent to send bombs to US synagogues on Thursday, before the plot was revealed to the public on the following day. "Since Thursday Israeli representatives have been on location in sensitive airports around the world, securing shipments to Israel," he said ahead of a large-scale drill at Ben Gurion International Airport...."
The 'Secret' documents & deliberations of the Hariri tribunal!
A 'Confidential & Urgent' letter from Judge Bellmare to the Swedish Justice Ministry, showing that the game of postponing & advancing the 'indictment' dates continues and that whetever Hariri told Nasrallah's adviser Hussein Khalil & Walid Jumblatt regarding the posponment of the 'indictment' to next March, is untrue! In the letter, Bellmare says that the 'indictment' is "'imminent before year's end'". ...(More, here)
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