"..If this is all that Olmert, Livni, & Barak have for an answer, then they have disgraced themselves & damaged their country & their friends.."

CSIS's Tony Cordesman, here

"Has Israel somehow blundered into a steadily escalating war without a clear strategic goal or at least one it can credibly achieve? Will Israel end in empowering an enemy in political terms that it defeated in tactical terms?...

If Israel has a plan that could credibly destroy and replace Hamas, it is not apparent. If Israel has any plan to help the Gazans and move them back towards peace, it is not apparent. If Israel has any plan to use US or other friendly influence productively, it not apparent....

The question is not whether the IDF learned the tactical lessons of the fighting in 2006. It is whether Israel's top political leadership has even minimal competence to lead them...."

"Cheney argued that the US should veto 1860, & Bush adopted Hadley's compromise to abstain.."

..ah, I forgot: Condi wanted to vote 'for' UNSC res. 1860 ... not that it mattered ... Laura Rosen, here

"UPDATE: The Weekly Standard claims that Condoleezza Rice strongly advocated that the U.S. vote in favor of the U.N. Resolution which the Security Council approved on Thursday by a 14-0 vote and which urges a cease-fire in Gaza; Dick Cheney argued that the U.S. should veto the Resolution, and Bush ultimately adopted Stephen Hadley's compromise suggestion to abstain, thereby allowing the Resolution to pass. Hamas and Israel competed with one another to see who could refuse most quickly to abide by the Resolution, and now -- as Haaretz reports this morning -- this is Israel's response."

A Washington Israel expert adds:

On the Ha'aretz website there is now a report that the assault will continue for 20 (yes twenty) days. I find that hard to believe, but if it's true then they are hoping with this for the same thing the US hoped for in Iraq, i.e. a transformation. Perhaps instead of avoiding Obama they are trying to force his hand into a more hawkish policy.

Another interpretation, which I have generally subscribed to, is that they have a tiger by the tail; they can't get out without showing results and if they do it now, Hamas will fire rockets tomorrow. Then where will Barak and co. be?

Alternatively, and this is what they now say, they want Mubarak, who is their best Arab ally, to do what he's always refused, i.e., station an int'l force at Rafah to stop the smuggling. That may be too far even for him; it seems to me that would humiliate him more than he will accept.

So far Barak has been very successful at making this the counter-Lebanon. But the endgame is the hardest, and that's where they're approaching.

I really have no idea of what they have in mind; it's not clear at all if they do; more likely there are 3 different strategies.

UPI: "Israeli attack on Iran leads to the loss of the entire US Army still deployed in Iraq"

William Lind, in UPI, here

"...Unfortunately, that may be no less true now that Obama, the Democratic nominee, won instead. For Obama must now find the wisdom and courage to break with the Democratic Party's foreign policy establishment. That establishment is as tied to Israel as Russia's foreign policy establishment was tied to Serbia in 1914. Past, I suspect, is prologue to its repetition in the future."

"The War Isn’t Over, But Israel Has Lost"

Tony Karon, here

"..Hamas appeared to believe that creating a crisis would force Israel to agree to new terms. Whether this was a mistaken belief or not actually remains to be seen: If the truce that ends Israel’s Operation Cast Lead leaves Hamas intact and includes the lifting of the siege, it will claim vindication. Even now, Israeli leaders continue to insist, idiotically, that Hamas cannot be allowed to achieve any diplomatic gains as a result of any truce that must, of necessity, require its diplomatic cooperation. Just as in 2006, the Israelis have achieved the exact opposite political result to what they intended: They have made it abundantly obvious, even to the incoming U.S. administration, that the policy of trying to isolate Hamas is spectacularly dysfunctional, and will have to be abandoned as a matter of urgency."

Haven’t we been here before?

State Department official: “We are increasingly concerned that Israel wins all the battles but is losing the war.”

Via MOA, in SWOOP, here

"...Facing enormous international pressure, Secretary of State Rice has argued behind the scenes for a US policy that acknowledges the concerns of close US allies in Europe and the Middle East. One State Department official told us: “We are increasingly concerned that Israel wins all the battles but is losing the war.” The open question is whether the incoming Obama Administration will be closer to Bush or Rice. An Obama adviser told us: “The issue is not whether we support Israel. Of course we do. The question we are debating is whether we can steer Israeli tactics in a less confrontational direction.” We believe that, with Congressional opinion running almost unanimously in Israel’s favor, Obama will not launch immediate change – but, as Tel Aviv is well aware, Obama is more open to alternative approaches than Bush..."

UN 'suggests' war crimes were committed in Gaza...

Savage-State has been committing War Crimes for ... decades! In McClatchy's, here

"...High Commissioner Navi Pillay noted the case of four boys who were rescued Wednesday by the International Committee of the Red Cross from the side of their dead mother in a dwelling 100 yards from an Israeli military post. The Red Cross called the incident "shocking," and Pillay told the BBC that it "had all the elements of what constitutes a war crime."

Livni to the WaPo: "We ask the international community to give us time ..we are not going to show restraint.."

In the WaPo, here

Egyptian plan for Gaza: "Bring back Abbas & Dahlan"

The London Times, here

"..I am fine here in Gaza, .. but what about you out there?.."

Lebanese Army: "Dormant Sunni cells are behind rockets fired from South Lebanon"

Nicholas Nassif, in Al Akhbar, here

"reason for a ceasefire now...to stop the killing & to ensure that a year or two from now we are not all wishing that Hamas was still in charge.."

A warped opinion that makes sense... In TPM-Cafe, here

"Bringing Hamas to power is one of the most horrific legacies of the Bush administration. In retrospect, the decision to oust Arafat (who had demonstrated the ability to thwart terrorism, and had reduced it to almost zero between 1997 and 2000) was a blunder. The administration's subsequent stingy support for Mahmoud Abbas was incomprehensible and its decision to force the Palestinian elections that brought Hamas to power--and which Israel and Abbas opposed--was about as benighted a foreign policy move as any in history."

Islam basher (and FOX News expert) rips US Muslim Congressman's Hajj..

Emerson in FOX, here

"..But Ellison, the only Muslim in Congress, is coming under fire for his ties to MAS, which one terrorism expert called "the Muslim equivalent of the neo-Nazi party." "It is the de facto arm of the Muslim Brotherhood in the U.S.," said Steven Emerson, director of the Investigative Project on Terrorism. "The agenda of the MAS is to ... impose Islamic law in the U.S., to undermine U.S. counterterrorism policy."

FT: "Israel will never turn armed might into strategic security"

In the FT, here

"...The moment had come for someone to break the spell. Save for negotiated land swaps, Israel had to hand back the West Bank to the Palestinians and to share control of Jerusalem. Peace with Syria was possible only with the return of the Golan Heights. “What I am saying here has never been said by a leader of Israel. But the time has come to say these things.”

He was right. Now, fast forward three months and the same Mr Olmert, serving out the last few weeks of his premiership, has sent Israel’s military to war against Hamas. The humanitarian tragedy in Gaza, we must conclude, is mirrored by a political tragedy in Israel. Even the authors of the latest invasion understand in their hearts its hopelessness..."

Saudi tabloid gets Hezbollah 'scoop'

Hezbollah divulges a whole lot to this "factual & balanced" Saudi tabloid, here

"..no evidence exists that this situation is "radicalizing" or "destabilizing" the region, or strengthening Hamas.. The reality, is the opposite.."

Pollock should know that the only thing that saved the region from a major conflegration was the defeat of Israel in Gaza! If he really thought that whatever was said in Lebanon (and elsewhere) were mere words, he better not hold his breath. In a nutshell, NO one (no one) has any interest in seeing the destruction of Hamas or anyone for that matter that can still speak for the Palestinians! As for Saudi media as "factual & balanced"...I can only looooool Waynak ya Angry Arab! One of WINEP's illusions ... here

"...The major pan-Arab print media, reflecting their Saudi sponsors, have been quite factual in their news coverage and relatively balanced in their opinions, giving roughly equal space to columnists critical of Hamas (and also of Hizballah) as to those assailing Israel over the past two weeks. Egypt's media has actually resumed ridiculing Hizballah and its leader, Shaikh Hassan Nasrallah, for "making words their only weapons" against Israel.."

Military Intelligence: Never expected Hamas victory in 2006

Akiva Eldar, in Haaretz, here

"...A PowerPoint presentation prepared by the Intelligence Branch entitled "Fashioning a Convenient Long-term Political, Security and Economic Reality for Israel" lauded the advantages of disengagement and downplayed the attendant risks. The presentation predicted that the disengagement would destroy the purveyors of terrorism and weaken the support of external elements, such as Hezbollah, for their Hamas brethren...

There is no way of knowing what would have happened if intelligence had warned the government and the Knesset about the implications of throwing Gaza's key to Hamas. Would Livni, Ehud Olmert and Haim Ramon, who pushed hard for disengagement, have taken to heart a warning that the Gaza Strip would become a Muslim Brotherhood state? And if so, would they have been able to dissuade Ariel Sharon, who was determined to leave Gaza without an agreement?.."

U.S. Looking for Ammo Ships for Israel?

In Wired, here

"On Dec. 31, just two days after Israel launched its current offensive against Hamas, U.S. Military Sealift Command issued a solicitation for two container vessels to ship ammunition from Greece to the Israeli port of Ashdod. The description of the vessels required was brief:

Required: Request US or foreign flag container vessel (coaster) to move approximately 168 TEU's [standard twenty-foot containers] in each of two consecutive voyages both containing ammunition.

Bids were requested by Jan. 5, but that does not mean a shipment will happen. "Funds are not currently available for this procurement," the solicitation states. "In the event funds remain unavailable, this procurement will be cancelled without an award being made."

""If Israel were to bring Abbas on an Israeli tank it wouldn't do much for his legitimacy"

Yup! Someone tried that in the not so distant Lebanon: Bashir Gemayel did not enjoy the vestiges of his presidency ... not one bit! In McClatchy's, here

"...One way would move toward an evolving diplomatic truce that would leave Hamas severely crippled, but still in control of the Gaza Strip.

The other would lead Israeli soldiers into the heart of Gaza on a ground offensive that some strategists argue shouldn't end until Hamas is removed from power....

The danger is that toppling Hamas would create a political vacuum in Gaza. It also would be politically impossible for Israel to re-install pragmatic Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas."If Israel were to bring (Abbas) on an Israeli tank it wouldn't do much for his legitimacy," said Dore Gold, one of Israel's former U.N. ambassadors and the president of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, an independent conservative policy group. For that reason, even Gold is among those who think it's better for Israel to leave Hamas in power.."

Al Jazeera airing of heavy Israeli military losses causes bombing of Media building

Al Jazeera, here and here

Israel can't win!

TIME, here

"...Just as ominous for many Israelis is a ticking demographic time bomb: the likelihood that Arabs will vastly outnumber Jews in the land stretching from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean is a catastrophic prospect for a nation that defines itself by its faith. At some point, Israelis will have to choose between living with an independent Palestinian state or watching Jews become a minority in their own land...

Perhaps more threatening than the rockets themselves was the doubt they cast over Israel's vaunted power of deterrence, which is key to keeping its hostile neighbors at bay. That power was badly eroded in 2006, when Hizballah was able to withstand the Israeli onslaught, force a cease-fire and claim victory in the process. That surely emboldened Hamas, which intermittently sent rockets into southern Israel and finally prompted Israel to respond in force. As respected Israeli columnist Nahum Barnea wrote in the Hebrew daily Yedioth Ahronoth, "A country that is afraid to deal with Hamas won't be able either to deter Iran or to safeguard its interests in dealing with Syria, Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority." ...

What then? Like Hizballah, Hamas will declare itself victorious: not only will it have survived a direct assault by a far superior military force, but it will also have freed Gazans from Israeli tyranny. As an added bonus, any economic revival of Gaza would put money into Hamas' coffers. But Israel would gain some breathing space and force Hamas to prove it can actually govern and maintain stability in Gaza rather than heap blame entirely on Israel....

A new Administration in Washington has a chance to be both supportive of Israel and honest with it. Over the past three years, many Israelis have told me that President George W. Bush was too good a friend of theirs. He gave Israelis all they wanted but didn't rein them in when they needed it. Israel eventually will have to pull back to the 1967 borders and dismantle many of the settlements on the Palestinian side, no matter how loudly its ultra-religious parties protest. Only then will the Palestinians and the other Arab states agree to a durable peace. It's as simple as that. But for 60 years, in the Holy Land, there has been a yawning gap between what was simple and what could be achieved."

Netanyahu courts bloggers: “keeping Jerusalem united under Israeli sovereignty”

Matt Yglesias, here

From: David Goder
Subject: One Jerusalem Bloggers Call with BENJAMIN NETANYAHU
To: redacted@onejerusalem.org
Date: Thursday,
January 8, 2009, 3:53 PM

YOU ARE INVITED TO PARTICIPATE IN A ONE JERUSALEM BLOGGERS CONFERENCE WITH BENJAMIN NETANYAHU

Live From Jerusalem, on Monday, January 12 at noon Eastern
Standard Time, Israel’s former Prime Minister will update bloggers on the latest developments in Israel’s War with Hamas.

To access the call, dial (XXX) XXX-XXXX. Participants joining
from outside the U.S. should dial (XXX) XXX-XXXX. The Conference ID is XXXXXX.

Benjamin Netanyahu, has been on the forefront of delivering the truth about Hamas, Iran, and the West’s stake in the outcome of this conflict.

Mr. Netanyahu has been criss-crossing the State of Israel reassuring its citizens that Israel’s Defense Forces are committed to eradicating the threat from Hamas.

As head of the Likud Party, he has suspended his party’s election campaign during this time of national emergency.

Mr. Netanyahu has set aside time from his busy schedule to participate in this briefing. He will take questions but given his tight schedule we suggest that bloggers submit questions by e-mail so he can cover as much ground as possible.

The blackmail of Ankara, by Israel and its cronies goes unabated ...

... and the blackmail of Turkey continues! Eurasianet.com, here

"Erdogan may also find himself walking a tightrope when it comes to distancing Turkey from Israel. Ankara has long depended on Israel to act as a conduit to the Washington and to American Jewish organizations, who have frequently acted as a kind of surrogate lobby for Turkey in Washington. In the past, Jewish organizations have been instrumental in helping Turkey block efforts to introduce resolutions in Congress recognizing the Armenian genocide of 1915."There is real anger with Erdogan on Capital Hill and among people who follow Turkey in Washington," says a Washington-based consultant who closely monitors Turkish affairs. "Nobody is threatening anything right now, or knows if there are going to be repercussions, but this is going to have an effect."

Faulty intelligence as to Hamas' "missile capabilities"

Omar Suleiman (Head of Egyptian Intelligence) traded jabs with his Israeli counterparts as to the source of Hamas' capabilities & weapons smuggling routes. (Israel says missiles are smuggled through Sinai, whereas Egypt says that missiles are seabound). The reason behind the 'argument' is an Egyptian report based on faulty PA report- (here) that said that Hamas possessed 'only 40 Grad caliber missiles' whereas the rest of the arsenal was 'Mom & Pop' type missiles!

Petraeus vs. Ross?

Jim Lobe, here

"...Petraeus’ appreciation for the importance of bringing Iran into a regional effort to stabilize Afghanistan may, of course, lead him into conflict not only with the neo-conservatives (as I suggested back in July), but, more importantly, with Dennis Ross and his backers within the Obama administration...."

Obama camp 'prepared to talk to Hamas'

"Incoming administration will abandon Bush's isolation of Islamist group to initiate low-level diplomacy, say transition sources"... In the Guardian, here

"...The move to open contacts with Hamas, which could be initiated through the US intelligence services, would represent a definitive break with the Bush ­presidency's ostracising of the group....

There is no talk of Obama approving direct diplomatic negotiations with Hamas early on, but he is being urged by advisers to initiate low-level or clandestine approaches, and there is growing recognition in Washington that the policy of ostracising Hamas is counter-productive. A tested course would be to start ­contacts through Hamas and the US intelligence services, similar to the secret process through which the US engaged with the PLO in the 1970s. Israel did not become aware of the contacts until much later.....

Another potential contender for a ­foreign policy role in the Obama administration suggested that the president-elect would not be bound by the Bush doctrine of isolating Hamas...."

Israeli rejection of Gaza deal may topple Abbas

Akiva Eldar, in Haaretz, here

"...The proposal is based mostly on the 2005 agreement on the crossings that Israel signed. It established that the Rafah crossing would be operated by the Palestinian Authority and a third party - in this case the European Union - would supervise its operation. ....A decision to reject it may, instead of causing the collapse of Hamas rule in Gaza, bring about the crash of Abbas' rule in the West Bank. And that will, by extension, destroy the road map..."

Abdallah, Abbas & Olmert prepare to send MASSIVE aid package to Gaza!

...consisting of Danish, Croissants & Cinnamon buns ... lots of buns .... can there be anymore buns?

Greek deputy sends Israeli gift back as "fruit of a gran' theft"

L'ambassade israélienne à Athènes a envoyé au député socialiste grec Theodoros Pangalos 3 bouteilles de vin pour les fêtes de fin d'année. M. Pangalos a renvoyé les bouteilles avec cette lettre :

Cher Ambassadeur,

Merci pour les trois bouteilles de vin que vous m'avez envoyé pour les fêtes. Meilleurs voeux, à votre famille, aux membres de votre ambassade et une bonne et heureuse année. Bonne santé et progrès pour vous tous.
J'ai malheureusement noté que le vin que vous m' avez offert a été produit sur les Hauteurs du Golan. J'ai toujours su, depuis tout petit, que l'on ne doit ni voler ni accepter les fruits d'un vol. Je ne peux donc accepter ce cadeau et je dois vous le restituer.
Comme on le sait, votre pays occupe illégalement les Hauteurs du Golan qui appartiennent à la Syrie, selon le droit international et de nombreuses décisions de la communauté internationale.
Je saisis l'occasion pour exprimer mon espoir qu'Israël obtiendra la sécurité à l'intérieur de frontières reconnues et que les activités terroristes contre son territoire, de la part du Hamas ou de tout autre, seront contenues et rendues impossibles; j'espère en outre que votre gouvernement cessera de pratiquer la politique des punitions collectives appliquées sur une échelle totale par Hitler et ses armées.
Les actions comme celles que les militaires israéliens exercent actuellement à Gaza, rappellent les holocaustes de Grecs à Kalavrita, Doxato, Distomo et certainement aussi dans le Ghetto de Varsovie.
Sur ces pensées, permettez que je vous exprime, ainsi qu'aux citoyens d'Israël et aux habitants de toute la région, mes meilleurs vœux.

Athènes, 30/12/2008

Pope's point man calls Gaza a "big concentration camp"

UK.Reuters, here

"Fatah is making one critical—and perhaps mistaken—assumption: that the fighting with Israel is actually weakening Hamas.."

In NEWSWEEK, here

"Even if they wanted to, it's far from clear that Abbas's forces could wrest control of the strip. The Fatah boss says his counterparts in Gaza are demoralized and ineffective......

American officials have invested considerable time and effort helping to train Abbas's security services. Still, only a small minority of those troops are native Gazans......

For now, most Fatah figures are hoping that some sort of international peacekeeping force will move into Gaza after Israel pulls out. Such a move could pave the way for Fatah security forces to return to power some months down the road, the thinking goes......

Finally, all the speculation among Fatah figures makes one critical—and perhaps mistaken—assumption: that the fighting with Israel is actually weakening Hamas. Hizbullah, after all, came out much stronger after its 2006 war with Israel; it won simply by not losing..."

Israeli Official: "we'll let foreign journalists in after Obama's inauguration: at that stage, Americans won't care!"

Think Progress, here

ENGEL: This official told me he expects this operation, while negotiations are taking place, will last several more days. And that after that, reporters would eventually be allowed in. But at that stage, Israel is assuming the United States will mostly be focused on all of the coverage around the inauguration, and that viewers simply won’t care at that point.

WINEP reports BIGGER role for Dennis Ross

"...Ross’ appointment marks a major setback for those who had hoped that Obama might bring some fresh thinking to Middle East policy, particularly vis-a-vis Iran and Israel-Palestine." Via Jim Lobe, here

To: Members of the Board of Trustees
From: Chairman Fred Lafer, President Howard Berkowitz, and ExecutiveDirector Robert Satloff
Re: Ambassador Dennis Ross to Join Obama Administration

We are delighted to share the news that Ambassador Dennis Ross, counselor and Ziegler Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute, has accepted an invitation to join the Obama administration as ambassador-at-large and senior advisor to Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton.

In that seventh-floor job, designed especially for him, Ambassador Rosswill be the secretary’s top advisor on a wide range of Middle East issues, from the Arab-Israeli peace process to Iran. Ambassador Ross will not reprise his previous role as special Arab-Israeli peace envoy, a post that
will be held by someone else; rather he will be working closely
with both the special envoy and the secretary. Ambassador Ross is expected to take his post immediately after inauguration.

(...)

Israeli troops kill U.N. truck driver attempting to deliver humanitarian aid to beleaguered Gaza

"Savage State" keeps treading ..not so lightly!... In McClatchy's, here

"...It was at least the second time in recent days that Palestinian relief workers contracted by the U.N. had been killed..."

Larijani meets Mesha'l in Damascus

Reuters, here

Israel shells Northern Lebanon...

Reuters, here

"...Lebanese security sources said they felt it was unlikely Hezbollah fired the salvoes, which came from an area controlled by U.N. peacekeepers and the Lebanese army, about 3 km (two miles) north of the border. Hamas sources in Lebanon denied involvement..."

URGENT: Right-Wing Website Sends Joe the Plumber to Israel to Report on Hamas

Some are calling this "Sewage Media".... In the Washington Independent, here

"...The Associated Press reports that the conservative PajamasTV Website is sending Wurzelbacher to Israel to cover the Gaza invasion. He plans to spend ten days there to let “‘Average Joes’ share their story.”

Emile Lahoud démasque les régimes arabes

Publié le mercredi 07 janvier 2009 à 11:47

Dans une interview à la chaîne libanaise Al Manar, Emile Lahoud, l'ancien président libanais, a accusé les régimes arabes de complicité avec l’axe israélo-américain, dans leurs positions autour des questions moyen-orientales.

Emile Lahoud a relaté des faits inhérents aux sommets de la Ligue arabe, sur lesquels planait toujours l’ombre des Etats-Unis et d’Israël. Il a évoqué le sommet arabe tenu à Beyrouth en 2002, à l’issue duquel a été adopté l’initiative de paix arabe, celle de l’Arabie Saoudite. Dans sa version initiale, qui lui a été soumise par le ministre des Affaires étrangères saoudien, ladite initiative ne mentionnait pas « le droit de retour ». Chose que le Liban récusait catégoriquement. « J’ai signifié aux ministre des Affaires étrangères saoudien, égyptien et au SG de la Ligue arabe Amr Moussa, que jamais, je ne signe, alors que j’étais président du sommet, un plan de paix qui occulte le droit de retour des Palestiniens ». Et leur réponse était : « voulez-vous qu’on dise que le sommet du Liban a échoué ? » Et moi de rétorquer : Qu’il échoue, ça m’importe peu".

Et de poursuivre : « face à mon insistance, l’un des ministres a appelé Colin Powell, alors chef du département d’Etat américain, qui lui, a contacté le ministre des AE israélien pour lui faire part de l’attachement du sommet du Liban au droit de retour. C’est à ce moment là que cette question a été ajoutée dans la déclaration finale. Mais, avec ça, Israël s’obstine à renier ce droit aux Palestiniens".

Emile Lahoud a aussi évoqué la position arabe au moment de la guerre contre le Liban. "Certains régimes arabes ont dénoncé à l’époque ce qu’ils ont appelé « l’aventure du Hezbollah, et sa résistance face à Israël. Alors que c’étaient eux qui nous menaient dans une aventure du fait de leur démission, de leur lâcheté". Il a encore parlé de la tentative du premier ministre libanais Fouad Siniora de lui faire signer un document stipulant le désarmement du Hezbollah. "Certains voulaient faire passer cette décision alors que le Hezbollah est sorti victorieux de la Guerre, un projet que j’ai refusé de cautionner et qui a fini par être étouffé dans l’œuf."

L’ancien président libanais, d’obédience chrétienne, a cité les tentatives occidentales qui visent à attiser la division interconfessionnelle, notamment entre sunnites et chiites, a fortiori, au Liban qui renferme de nombreuses ethnies et confessions. Il a cité l’exemple de la guerre contre Gaza où le Hezbollah, le chiite soutient Hamas, le sunnite . « C’est pas une affaire d’appartenance confessionnelle, la résistance est animée d’un idéal commun : mettre fin à l’injustice et reconquérir les terres. Moi, on m’a élevé à ne jamais jeter l’éponge quand je suis dans mon droit. Peu importe si celui que je soutiens n’a pas la même religion ou les mêmes opinions que moi, il suffit que sa cause soit juste pour que je lui donne tout mon soutien".
Lahoud considère qu’il est clair qu’il y a des complicités arabes dans l’actuelle agression contre Gaza, notamment de l’Egypte et de l’Arabie Saoudite qui se plient au bon vouloir des Etats-Unis et d’Israël. Chacun des pays arabes a un agenda politique qu’il veut mener à terme. Israël ainsi que les pays arabes ont décidé de mener cette guerre au moment où il y a un vide au pouvoir étasunien. Ils veulent se débarrasser de Hamas, et redistribuer les cartes dans la région. Et après, lorsque Obama sera effectivement aux commandes, ils reviennent à parler du processus de paix, de Camp David, des accords d’Oslo, d’Annapolis etc, a-t-il laissé entendre..

Et de renchérir : "Mais de quelle paix, s’agit-ils alors qu’une guerre sauvage est en train de tuer nos enfants en Palestine ». Emile Lahoud a déploré l’incapacité arabe de ne pas pouvoir tenir un sommet, à l’heure où l’urgence pour une telle réunion se fait plus que jamais sentir. « Ce sommet doit se tenir et les pays arabes doivent exprimer une position claire envers cette guerre contre Gaza et non déléguer la question au Conseil de Sécurité, tout en sachant pertinemment qu’il nous bloque par le veto américain".

Au sujet de la position de la Syrie, selon laquelle le sommet arabe doit avoir lieu quel que soit le nombre de pays qui y participent, Lahoud se dit y être favorable. « Que chaque dirigeant arabe montre son vrai visage », martelant que les pays arabes ont plusieurs cartes à abattre pour faire pression sur les Etats-Unis et mettre un terme au veto américain.

Il a salué la position de la Turquie envers cette guerre et le courage d’Erdogan qui a écouté la voix de sa rue, pressant les régimes arabes de lui emboîter le pas.

Le sommet de Beyrouth me fait revenir certains souvenirs: -la délégation Palestinienne voulait quitter le sommet parce que la parole n'a pas été donné à feu Yasser Arafat cloîtré dans une chambre à la Mokataa, peut être la honte de voir un chef d'état arabe dans cette situation! quelque temps après ils l'ont vu mourir comme ils ont vu un deuxième se faire pendre en direct par un gouvernement avec lequel incessamment il se réconcilieront. -le lendemain de la lecture de la proposition arabe de paix ariel sharon a commencé un massacre en territoires palestinien, qui s'est soldé par des centaines de morts.

Je suis dans l'embarras de dire que si l'ONU a résolu certains conflits, parfois par la force tout en étant resté inéfficace et injuste dans le conflit palestino-israelien, la ligue des état arabes, elle, ne peut prétendre à aucune action favorable à la nation arabe, et je me permets de défier quiconque me prouver le contraire.

"The Middle East’s Rogue Regime"

Patrick Seale, here

"The world is a jungle, largely because the U.S. administration of out-going President George W. Bush has made it so. Bush’s illegal war in Iraq, his unbridled ‘Global War on Terror’, his cross-border air strikes, his subversion of the rule of law and of the Geneva Conventions, his license for the use of torture and for detention without trial, all these have given Israel the freedom to do likewise."

Jihadist Groups in Gaza: A Developing Threat

WINEP, here

"...Both Hamas and the Gazan jihadist groups share a desire to destroy Israel and impose sharia, but Hamas focuses on local interests limited to the Palestinian arena. Hamas, therefore, directs its energy largely at Israel, while these groups target foreigners as well..... But since these groups have gained strength and seem inclined to act independently, Hamas has shifted its approach over the past few months. It has gone from indulgence and dialogue to confrontation..."

US officers deployed along Egypt-Rafah border

In YNEtnews, here

"..US Engineering Corps officers have arrived in southern Gaza Strip town of Rafah to monitor the Egypt-Gaza border and unearth underground tunnels in the area, the London-based Arabic-language newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi reported Wednesday..."

Mahmood Abbas goes to Hollywood, knowing full well that the US Veto looms large!

Al Jazeera/English, here

"..However, she (Rice) said the council needed "to find a solution ... that does not allow Hamas to use Gaza as a launching pad for rockets".Al Jazeera's Ghida Fakhry, reporting from New York, said that it was thought unlikely that any vote would take place on the proposed resolution soon, as the current reported document was very complicated.But it was unlikely that Abbas would achieve his goal of getting the resolution passed as the US consistently vetoes any resolution critical of Israel, and this would weaken the Palestinian president politically, our correspondent explained..."

"As always, mighty Israel claims to be the victim.. but the sheer asymmetry of power leaves little room for doubt as to who the victim is.."

Oxford professor of international relations Avi Shlaim served in the Israeli army and has never questioned the state's legitimacy. But its merciless assault on Gaza has led him to devastating conclusions.... In the Guardian, here

"...The real purpose behind the move was to redraw unilaterally the borders of Greater Israel by incorporating the main settlement blocs on the West Bank to the state of Israel. Withdrawal from Gaza was thus not a prelude to a peace deal with the Palestinian Authority but a prelude to further Zionist expansion on the West Bank.

Israel likes to portray itself as an island of democracy in a sea of authoritarianism. Yet Israel has never in its entire history done anything to promote democracy on the Arab side and has done a great deal to undermine it. Israel has a long history of secret collaboration with reactionary
Arab regimes to suppress Palestinian nationalism. America and the EU shamelessly joined Israel in ostracising and demonising the Hamas government and in trying to bring it down by withholding tax revenues and foreign aid. A surreal situation thus developed with a significant part of the international community imposing economic sanctions not against the occupier but against the occupied, not against the oppressor but against the oppressed..."

Ezzat Ibrahim al Duri: "The barbaric ... attack on our people in Gaza is the natural result of the absence of Iraq, ..and its Leader.."

Reuters, here

"...if Ambassador Meridor is taken at his word, then Israel has no strategy in Gaza..."

Abu Aardvark (Marc Lynch) now at the "new" FP, here

"...Meridor's narrative is assuredly familiar to anyone who follows the op-ed pages. He argued repeatedly that "this was not a matter of choice, not something we picked or were hoping for", but rather a war launched by Hamas to which Israel was forced to respond. Hamas must be understood as part of the global struggle against radical Islamic terrorism, he insisted, a war led by Iran ("the world's largest exporter of terror") and employing "sub- conventional weapons of mass destruction" (suicide bombers). The goal, he explained, was to create "a better, more secure situation for us and the Palestinians" by degrading Hamas's capabilities and by re-establishing the credibility of its deterrence.

But how, exactly? After he failed to respond to an initial question about the end-state Israel hoped to achieve, I asked him directly about his government's strategic logic. How, precisely did Israel's government expect its military campaign to achieve its goals? His answer tellingly focused almost exclusively on body counts and targets hit: over 1000 Hamas targets hit ("not a small number"), many headquarters and tunnels and rocket production facilities destroyed. Tactics over strategy..."

Richard Perle: "Iraq was not a neocon masterplan"

...In a nutshell, Perle is also saying that the Nouveaux-cons did not influence W's Administration ... in the National Interest, here

"...As a result, the foreign and security policies declared by the president in speeches, in public and private meetings, in backgrounders and memoranda often had little or no effect on the activities of the sprawling bureaucracies charged with carrying out the president’s policies. They didn’t need his directives: they had their own....

Guileless to a fault, George W. Bush has been among the most straightforward American presidents in my lifetime.....

So if it was not a neocon master plan, how did we end up invading Iraq? What were the considerations that led Bush to bring down Saddam Hussein’s regime by force? What was the role of neoconservatives in his decision to go to war in Iraq? Many people believe they know the answer to these questions because so much has been written, with seeming authority, by so many commentators. Could 50 million blogs be wrong?

I BELIEVE that Bush went to war for the reasons—and only the reasons—he gave at the time: because he believed Saddam Hussein posed a threat to the United States that was far greater than the likely cost of removing him from power...."

Saudi tabloid shows mourning Israeli reservists...

Elaph, the spewing Saudi portal, here

"... Revionist history of the worst kind!"

Sic Semper Tyrannis, here

"...Conventional wisdom says that when Israel went into Lebanon in 2006, it lost that war. Hezbollah stood up to the mighty Israeli army; Israel could not muzzle Hezbollah's rockets. That may not be the way Hezbollah sees things, however. After the war, its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said he had miscalculated. He was not prepared for the fury of the Israeli attack. He apologized. Now, Hezbollah takes no role in the current war. It will be back, but it still has wounds to lick. " Richard Cohen

------------------------------------------------------------------------

What a crock! Revionist history of the worst kind!

Nasrallah apologized to the LEBANESE people for having given Israel the excuse to unleash a country wide stategic bombing campaign that attempted to destroy the national will of the Lebanese to resist the intimidation that is the continuing policy of the Israelis and that was the keynote of the Bush Administration's effort to advance the interests of factions in Lebanon and Syria that would meekly bow to Jerusalem and Washington and accept a peace, not of equals and potential friends, but rather a peace imposed upon an "inferior race."

Cohen thinks that the IDF was not defeated in lebanon? They caused the complete integration of Hizbullah into the Lebanese govenment as the dominant factor. They were unable to "move" the Hizbullah village defense battalions on the battlefield. (They never met the main forces of Hizbullah) The IDF's soldiers fought poorly against Hizbulah. The psychological effect of this on Israel's ability to maintain itself amongst a sea of enemies was devastating. The Israelis know that the logic of this development weighs heavily on their future as a state. This operation in Gaza is as much about instilling fear of israel among the Muslims as anything else.

As I have written before, the main issue in the Middle East hangs in the balance in Gaza. Israel and its propagandists like Cohen know that. If Israel can not restore its image and self-image by dominating the outcome, then Israel's future will be permanently affected for good or ill. Col. W P Lang

After Erdogan's fiery remarks, Israel asks Turkey "to pick sides" in the aggression...

With a hint of "East-West" blackmail & talk of reassessing whether Turkey is fit to continue being a "mediator" ('...THE NEXT Israeli government should weigh whether Israel can accept as a mediator a country that speaks, albeit elliptically, of our destruction...'), the savages from Israel ask Turkey to cave and pick a nation of blood thirsty settlers over the Asian Brown inhabitants of Palestine! In the JPOst, here

Siniora of 2006' fears for Mubarak of 2009'...

"there is no need to demonstrate in front of the Egyptian embassy" says the whining hero of Lebanon July 2006'... (New TV)

Israelis, sipping Pepsi, watch bombardment of Gaza town

In McClatchy's, here

Mubarak: "Hamas must not be allowed to win in Gaza"

In Haaretz, here

"Hamas must not be allowed to win its conflict with the IDF, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Monday told a delegation of European foreign ministers in a closed conversation. The comment occurred even as Hamas, for the first time since the fighting began, sent representatives to Cairo to discuss a cease-fire. Following a meeting with Egyptian intelligence officials, Hamas officials said they had received an Egyptian proposal and would consider it..."

Erdogan: "What reason can justify such savagery?"

I wish I could locate his full speech in front of the People's Assembly ... it was not expected! Hurriyet, here

Savagery continues, as Israel slaughters 40 Gazans in UN school...

Reuters, here

Doctors said all the dead were either people sheltering in the school or residents of Jabalya refugee camp, in the north of the Gaza Strip.

Egypt bars doctors from entering Gaza Strip

In AP, here

"..Along with Israel, Egypt has maintained the closure of the Gaza border, imposed after Hamas took control of the area in June 2007. However, the Egyptian closure has been seen by some as abetting Israel's siege of the crowded strip, home to 1.4 million people..."

URGENT II: "Bush ‘seriously considering’ pardon of Iraq war vet who killed unarmed Iraqi civilian.."

The Life of an Asian Brown not worth that of a WH cat! ...ThinkProgress, here

"Sgt. Evan Vela, 24, was found guilty of murder without premeditation, of aiding and abetting in planting an AK-47 on the dead man's body and of lying to military investigators about the shooting.........The father says he has received a letter from the White House confirming that his request that his son be pardoned by President Bush is being “seriously considered.”

URGENT: President & Mrs. Bush mourn their Cat "Willie"

WH, here

Dennis Ross, Special Envoy for Iran?

Jim Lobe from the NelsonReport, here

"...Very concerning news from the very excellent Nelson Report tonight — that Dennis Ross will become Special Envoy for Iran, reporting directly to SecState-designate Clinton, rather than to the White House. Chris Nelson has great sources everywhere, and, while he is much more an Asia hand than a Mideast expert, I have to take his reports quite seriously. Of course, Ross, who has virtually no independent expertise or experience that I know of regarding Iran, signed on to that September Bipartisan Policy Center report drafted by hard-line neo-cons Michael Rubin and Michael Makovsky, as I reported here in October. Such an appointment should give pause to anyone worried about the lingering possibility of war with Tehran.

Nelson also reports that Richard Haass will be Special Envoy for Israel-Arab affairs, apparently something of a compromise between Ross and Dan Kurtzer. For the direction he is likely to take, particularly regarding the Palestinian and Syrian tracks, see my article on his recent report co-authored with Martin Indyk. They also wrote a version of their policy recommendations in the latest edition of Foreign Affairs.

Nelson reports that Richard Holbrooke will become and Special Envoy for India and Pakistan and Anne Marie Slaughter head of Policy Planning, among many other likely appointments of particular relevance to Asia policy."

Dahlan to Der Spiegel: "Hamas's 'Sole Strategy is Destruction and Chaos'"

a TIMELY interview from thug turned official turned crook turned runaway, ... in DerSpiegel, here

SPIEGEL: Do you think the populace will revolt against Hamas?

Dahlan: It's not that simple. Didn't the Americans too think the Iraqis would welcome them with flowers? The Palestinians will only begin to hate Hamas when Israel offers us a genuine peace and Hamas attempts to block this opportunity.

Israel is on its way to reoccupying all of the Gaza Strip

Aluf Benn in Haaretz, here

"...The message yesterday from Jerusalem was that it is impossible to end Operation Cast Lead without an achievement, and if in the next two days there is no satisfactory diplomatic solution, Israel will have to broaden the operation....

"Broadening the operation" could mean moving from house to house as in Operating Defensive Shield in 2002 in the West Bank, aiming to kill or capture as many Hamas fighters as possible. Or it could mean surrounding Gaza City, similar to the way the Egyptian Third Army was cut off in 1973, or like the siege of Beirut in 1982, until Hamas' leaders emerge from their hideouts with their hands up. This could take several weeks....

Israel is in a bind. If it pulls out now from Gaza, it will appear to have cut and run at the first sign of trouble in battling Hamas. And if it goes on to a full occupation of the Strip, it may pay a heavy economic and political price without achieving its political goals..."

"..Nasrallah has not ordered his own powerful militia into action.."

Citing the 'expertize' of Paul Salem, and Saudi lackeys wishing for a "double whammy" ....In the NYTimes, here

"....on Friday, Elias Harfoush of the Saudi-owned newspaper Hayat ridiculed Hezbollah for its mix of “passionate speeches” and “realism” with regard to action...

“What if some local Hezbollah-allied group in the south just decides to launch a couple of rockets at Israel?” said Timur Goksel,
.......But at least one figure who is close to Hezbollah’s leadership agreed that the pressure for intervention would grow if Hamas seemed close to defeat. Ibrahim al-Amine, the chairman of the Beirut-based newspaper Al Akhbar, is said to be a personal friend of Mr. Nasrallah’s. “Hezbollah cannot allow Hamas to lose this war,” Mr. Amine said.."

Israel seeks to 'Avoid' the Mistakes made in "Ambitious 2006 Invasion of Lebanon"

(As AngryArab would say: Dahlan O Dahlan! ... read on the 'tip' a PA officer gave the Israelis on Hamas' infrastructures..below) In the WSJ, here

"What you're seeing today is a direct lesson of what went wrong in 2006," said retired Israeli Air Force General Isaac Ben Israel. "In Lebanon we learned that if you want to stop these rocket launchers you need to send soldiers in and take the area and control it and this is what is being done now."

Hamas has little access to resupply routes for weapons, unlike Hezbollah. Israel also benefits from a far more expansive intelligence network in Gaza than it had in southern Lebanon in 2006.

Israel's decision to keep the international media out of Gaza also appears to be a lesson taken from past missteps in Lebanon and elsewhere. Several Israel campaigns in the past have been undermined by international pressure over humanitarian concerns, a factor that appears to again be playing a role on the diplomatic front this time around.

Like Israel, Hamas has also learned lessons from the Lebanon war in 2006, when Hezbollah's advanced arsenal and extensive preparations appeared to take Israeli forces by surprise. Hamas commanders have dug an extensive network of tunnels inside Gaza cities and have ordered fighters to focus efforts on kidnapping Israeli soldiers, according to a Palestinian Authority intelligence officer who was stationed until recently in Gaza and is familiar with Hamas tactics..."

Roseanne Barr: "Israel is a 'Nazi state'"

In the JPOst, here

Weekly-Standard: "Killing a Hamas leader is good... Killing his 12 children is even better!"

In the WeeklyStandard, here

"...But to wipe out a man's entire family, it's hard to imagine that doesn't give his colleagues at least a moment's pause. Perhaps it will make the leadership of Hamas rethink the wisdom of sparking an open confrontation with Israel under the current conditions..."

Is Israel A Strategic Liability For The United States?

Experts' take at the National Journal's Security Link, here

Scheuer: "...The democratically elected Israeli govermment is right to try to vanquish Hamas; and the democratically elected Hamas regime has every right to try do the same to Israel. The point to keep squarely in view is that it does not matter to America's security who emerges the winner. "

Lang: "...The products of Israeli intelligence are sometimes valuable but often do not reach the standard of the legend concerning them. The reverse is not true. US military operations have not been benefited by the relationship with Israel..."

...read more, here

Gaza Update: Cluster Bombs

FireDogLake, here

Public Outrage over Gaza, Gives Iran's Hard-Liners a Political Boost

WSJ, here

Israel, unsure about Obama's support, Israel times its aggression in Bush's final hours...

In the NYTimes, here

"...Many Middle East experts say Israel timed its move against Hamas, which began with airstrikes on Dec. 27, 24 days before Mr. Bush leaves office, with the expectation of such backing in Washington. Israeli officials could not be certain that President-elect Barack Obama, despite past statements of sympathy for Israel’s right of self-defense, would match the Bush administration’s unconditional endorsement..."

Bandar peddles much of the same...with Obama

In Al Akhbar, here

وفي سياق التورط العربي في المعركة ضد قوى المقاومة في فلسطين ولبنان، كشف تقرير خاص وصل الى جهات عربية بارزة ان رئيس مجلس الامن القومي ف السعودية الأمير بندر بن سلطان زار العاصمة الأميركية واشنطن في الأسبوع الثاني من كانون الأول الماضي، وعقد سلسلة اجتماعات مع مسؤولين في ادارة الرئيس جورج بوش وفريقه الذي يترك الادارة الاميركية حالياً، وكذلك مع عدد من مساعدي الرئيس الجديد باراك اوباما، ومع قيادات يتوقع ان يكون لها دور استشاري في المرحلة المقبلة
وحسب التقرير فإن بندر حرص في هذه الاجتماعات على تقديم تصور عن طريقة مقاربة حكومة بلاده لملفات ساخنة قائمة الان في المنطقة، ويفترض ان تكون على جدول اعمال الادارة الجديدة. وهو قال مرتاحاً ان ما يقوله يمكن ان يمثل وجهة نظر كل دول الخليج العربي اضافة الى مصر والأردن والسلطة الفلسطينية وقوى 14 آذار في لبنان
ووفق التقرير فإن الامير السعودي رتّب اولويات من يمثل بالآتي:
اولاً الملف النووي الإيراني
يجب ان يندرج ضمن أولويات الإدارة القادمة بالنظر لدرجة الخطورة التي ينطوي عليها وما يحمله من تهديد لدول الخليج وللمصالح الأميركية في المنطقة. وقد انتقد بندر ادارة الرئيس بوش لأنها تكلمت كثيراً وفعلت قليلاً ولأنها لم تتخذ الإجراءات المطلوبة والضرورية للقضاء على طموحات إيران النووية واكتفت بإجراء عقوبات شكلية لا تؤثر أو تعوق مسار حيازة السلاح النووي
ثانياً - الملف السوري
حذر بندر المسؤولين في الادارة الجديدة من مشروع الانفتاح على سوريا وطالبها بتكثيف جهودها لمنعها من العودة إلى المجتمع الدولي وإخراجها من العزلة على غرار ما فعلته فرنسا. وبيّن للمسؤولين في إدارة أوباما أنه لا بد من إحداث تغيير داخلي في سوريا لأن النظام السوري يواجه معضلات في الداخل وصراعات داخلية، وأنه على ثقة بأن النظام كان على وشك السقوط لولا التدخل الفرنسي والأوروبي وتركيا التي هيّأت فرصاً سياسية للنظام لكي يخفف من وطأة الحصار والعزلة عن طريق إحياء المسار التفاوضي بين دمشق وتل ابيب وتفعيله.
ثالثاً - الملف الفلسطيني
شدد بندر على أهمية أن تولي الإدارة الأميركية القادمة اهتماماً خاصاً لتفعيل المسار التفاوضي الفلسطيني ـــــ الاسرائيلي انطلاقاً من الذي تحقق حتى الان، وهو اقترح لذلك مجموعة من الخطوات ابرزها
1 - إصدار قرار من مجلس الامن يقضي بدعم المفاوضات بين الطرفين ومتابعتها (وهو ما حدث عبر القرار 1850 الذي
صدر قبل أيام والذي كان للسعودية دور مهم في طرحه).
2 - إعطاء دفعة قوية لما اتخذ من تفاهمات في «أنابوليس» حتى تكون الأولوية لهذا المسار لأن الوصول إلى تسوية
للصراع سينزع فتيل التوتر في المنطقة ويحاصر القوى الراديكالية الفلسطينية واللبنانية التي لا تريد تسوية سلمية لهذا الصراع
3 - دعم سلطة الرئيس محمود عباس الذي قد يواجه وضعاً صعباً إن لم تحقق نتائج عملية على المسار التفاوضي وتبنّي
موقف داعم لتمديد ولاية عباس لتعزيز مركزه الذي يتهدده الخطر.الى جانب ذلك، اكد بندر ان الضغوط على ايران وسوريا ودعم سلطة عباس من شأنهما توجيه ضربات الى القوى الميدانية التي تستند اليها هذه الدول، قاصداً حزب الله في لبنان وحركة حماس والجهاد الاسلامي في فلسطين

"Shut down al-Jazeera!"

In YNETnews, here

"Arab network is in fact jihadist channel and must not be allowed to operate in Israel ...There is only one conclusion here: We must immediately shut down al-Jazeera’s Israel offices and prevent its employees from working for it. Once Israel does it, many other countries will follow suit, particularly in the Middle East, for their own reasons. They are waiting for Israel to put an end to the recklessness of this non-media channel.

"..The attacks on Gaza illustrates the divide between the Arab rulers & the sentiments of those they rule.."

In .the WaPo, here

"...The gulf between the two is not uncommon in a region that remains, with few exceptions, authoritarian. But exacerbating the tension is an issue that, although half a century old, remains at the heart of Arab politics: Palestine and its symbolism here......"O great people of Egypt," they chanted, "replace Mubarak with a donkey."

"The Arab-Israeli conflict has witnessed instances during which Arab regimes have collaborated with the Israeli state," Khaled Saghiyeh wrote last week in a column in al-Akhbar, a Lebanese opposition newspaper. "But the interests of the Israeli and Arab regimes are perhaps meeting today like they never have before."

"This gap, which has always been there, is greater than ever. I think we're in the middle of something new," he said. "This polarization -- where you have regimes perceived as getting closer to American and Israeli interests at the expense of very clear Arab and Muslim rallying points. They're acting oddly against their own interests. They're misreading the pulse of the people, the extent of the anger among most Arabs."

"..We now watch an army of reservists fight a war of materiel against an army of fanatics. The quality of the men will determine the outcome.."

Pat Lang, here

"...It is hard to see how they can profit from this effort against Hamas. They have gambled "the ranch" on this roll of the iron dice. They have never been good at long term thinking. They are too focused on their tribal enemies for that.

As I wrote previously, the "psychological weight" of Israel hangs in the balance in this effort. They must be perceived to have dominated this situation in order to emerge with at least as much deterrent "credit" as they entered it with. To do that they must force Hamas to stop firing into Israel, "not for a day, not for a month, but always." The US is peddling the IO line that the Gazans are being held prisoner by Hamas. For that to sell, there will have to be a revolt (in some form) of the Gazans against Hamas. Lastly, there must not be pictures of "brewed up" Israelis tanks being dragged out of Gaza. Better to blow them in place than have pictures like that. To achieve all this will be difficult..."

“If the war ends in a draw, as expected, and Israel refrains from re-occupying Gaza, Hamas will gain diplomatic recognition,”

In the NYTimes, here

"...Implicit in Mr. Benn’s argument, however, is that the only way to stop Hamas from gaining legitimacy is for Israel to fully occupy Gaza again, more than three years after removing its soldiers and settlers. That is a prospect practically no one in Israel or abroad is advocating. Moreover, while it may sound decisive to speak of taking Hamas out of power, almost no one familiar with Gaza and Palestinian politics considers it realistic. Hamas legislators won a democratic majority in elections four years ago, and the group has 15,000 to 20,000 men under arms. It has consolidated its rule in the past 18 months since pushing out its rivals loyal to the more Western-oriented and moderate Fatah party of Mahmoud Abbas, who sits in Ramallah in the West Bank.......The likelier result of a destruction of the Hamas infrastructure, then, would be chaos, anathema not only to the people of Gaza but also to those hoping for peace in southern Israel.

In particular, many point to the 2006 war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, where Israel also tried to destroy rocket launchers and a hostile organization’s infrastructure, only to end up killing many civilians and leaving Hezbollah more popular and perhaps ultimately stronger than before the war......

It may take weeks or months, they assert, but it can work. If true, questions still remain: At what human cost? And who will be in charge when it is all over?"

Shoes catwalk in 10 Downing Street...

in the UK DailyMail, here

Saudi 'fatwa': "Pro-Gaza demonstrations are 'corrupting'"

Al Quds Al Arabi, here

After the fiasco in Lebanon, the 'mighty' IDF aggresses Gaza ... to recapture its deterrence

....and, Bolton calls on Obama to launch ‘meaningful efforts at regime change’ in Iran'

...in ThinkProgress, here

Iyad Allawi: "Bush 'utter failure'"

Reuters, here

"...Yes, Bush's policies failed utterly," said Allawi, describing the U.S. administration that once backed him. "Utter failure. Failure of U.S. domestic and foreign policy, including fighting terrorism and economic policy."

Army War College: "...new expressions (of Palestinian militancy) are almost certain to be more desperate than Hamas..."

SSI of AWC in Carlisle, here via WPR

"...There are certainly security benefits to be gained for Israel from a devastating military operation in Gaza, despite the heavy costs that accompany one. The fact that Hezbollah has not dared to open a northern front in support of Hamas shows that, despite the widely acknowledged failure of the 2006 Lebanon War, it did have some deterrent impact.
But a strategic objective that includes dealing some sort of definitive deathblow to Hamas ignores both the degree to which Hamas has become integrated into the social fabric of Gaza through its social services operations, and the degree to which Palestinian resistance has become integrated into the political fabric of Hamas for lack of any other viable alternative.
The Israeli army might eradicate what we know as Hamas (the men, the weapons, the command and control infrastructure), but that will only drive those Palestinians who respond to their very real humanitarian plight with the urge to resist to find new expressions for their militancy. Those new expressions are almost certain to be more desperate than Hamas, just as Hamas was more desperate than the vestiges of Fatah it replaced...."

Coup attempt in Egypt?

In AngryArab, here

"...actually, there is word (posted on a website for harakat annaseriyyeen al 3arab-which i have not located yet but was told about) of a failed attempt that already happened/was being planned in the past few days and that the perpetrators are now being tried in a secret court, but there is no confirmation yet. one liwa was allegedly involved. (a former failed attempt had taken place during invasion of iraq but was faltly denied and shushed early on. the army by the way has been deployed to stem protests now. obviously, the longer the gaza situation remains as is and hamas puts on a strong defense, the more likely it will happen. one of the journalists who has been in touch with people there says anything that provides a context for a coup at this stage will be used, people are just fed up. one has to be on ground to give smart estimate but i believe chances for either revolt or coup remain low to medium at best- the former less likely than the latter. any sustainable coup in my opinion has either to secure the support or sympathy of ikhwan or get green light from washington-, otherwise it will have no muscle and will be left exposed..."

WINEP: "...Egypt hopes Israel will either oust Hamas from Gaza or weaken it sufficiently.."

WINEP, here

"...As the chairman of the Egyptian parliament's foreign affairs committee said, "Egypt won't tolerate the existence of an Islamic state at its border." At the same time, Egypt's support for Gaza's isolation secures the goodwill of Washington and Israel, while preserving its regional role vis-a-vis rivals Iran and Syria..."

Israel's goals after July 06': Psychological .. to demonstrate to all the Israeli capability & willingness to inflict great damage & casualties

In SicSemperTyrannis, here

...Statements by Livni and Brigadier (Ret.) Hertzog indicate that Israel's goals in Gaza are essentially psychological in that they seek to demonstrate to all the Israeli capability and willingness to inflict great damage and numerous casualties in pursuit of a position of dominance in the ME region. Israel senses correctly that its image as hegemon in the eastern Mediterranean was badly eroded in the period from the Israeli evacuation of south Lebanon through the '06 war and into the present. It now seeks to restore its image of ruthlessness in pursuit of its goals. The belief persists in Israel that enemies can be made into clients through intimidation....

M Barghouti: Palestine's Guernica and the Myths of Israeli Victimhood

In TWN, here

.....In closing, there is another reason - beyond the internal politics of Israel - why this attack has been allowed to occur: the complicity and silence of the international community.....

Arab masses lash out at Arab governments allied with the US, .. while Syria and Iran draw praise for their militancy...

In the NYTImes, here

It’s becoming clear that if you are silent, the Arab street is going to consider you part of the enemy,” said Muhammad al-Masri, a researcher and political analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies in Amman, Jordan. “There is no way to be in the middle.” The polarization appears to have ended a thaw that had taken place in the past year, Mr. Masri said. Syria had been reaching out to the West and holding indirect peace talks with Israel. Lebanon’s political factions had reached a peace deal. Syria and Saudi Arabia had made gestures toward resolving their feud.

Now, fault lines visible during the summer 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah have reappeared. Syria has been pressing for an emergency Arab summit meeting, but Egypt and Saudi Arabia have resisted.

"Neocons still busy on Iran"

Jim Lobe, here

While no doubt demoralized, the neo-conservative hawks at American Enterprise Institute (AEI) will be continuing their efforts for a major U.S. confrontation with Iran. They’ve scheduled an all-day briefing on “The Imam Returned: Thirty Years of Revolution in Iran” for January 30, no doubt featuring the recommendations of last September’s Bipartisan Policy Center report (signed by Dennis Ross) that I called a “roadmap to war” in a post in October. The two main authors (and graduates of Doug Feith’s Office of Special Plans) of the report, AEI’s Michael Rubin (who has denied it is a “roadmap to war”) and Michael Makovsky will be presenting, although the featured speaker is Jeffrey Gedmin, an AEI alumnus and the head of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty who bore major responsibility for that heavily Likudnik Prague Conference on Democracy and Security in June 2007. Given my persona non grata status at AEI, I will unfortunately not be permitted to attend, but, coming ten days after Obama’s inauguration, I’m sure it will be the first big Iran-bashing event of the Obama era.

"...Egypt is the prize, the low hanging fruit ..."

Laura Rosen writes: "A well known Arab American analyst in Washington who asked to speak on background offered this analysis on the regional and domestic politics of the Gaza conflict from an Arab perspective:

"There are two domestic agendas here. The Israeli one is very familiar... But what people are not asking and is at least as important: what are the f**** rocket firers hoping to do? ... If you look at what people are saying, there is a disconnect between what Haniyah and people in Gaza are saying, and what Nasrallah and Meshal and regional actors say. ... The Hamas leadership in Gaza is saying, we want a ceasefire on our terms. What Nasrallah and Meshal and Iran are saying: Egyptians, rise up ... What’s missing in every analysis I see is that Egypt is the prize, the low hanging fruit ...

Sketch out the regional scenario: two unsympathetic forces hinged by Hamas. You have the Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Iraqi Islamist parties on the one hand, on one side of the hinge. ... And you’ve got the Muslim Brotherhood regional project for overthrowing [moderate Arab regime] governments on the other.

The hinge is Hamas. Because Hamas is a core member of Leninist-style collection of national Muslim Brotherhood parties. It is also the only Sunni member of the pro Iranian alliance because of the money it gets through Khaled Meshal. Hamas is a hinge, Syria is a hinge. You've got Meshal in Damascus who gets lots of money from Iran. Hamas is not neutral in the moderate Arab regimes vs. Iranian alliance rivalry.

Both stand to benefit here. One project advances [unrest] in Egypt to the benefit of the Muslim Brotherhood. And while that is not something to be overjoyed for for Nasrallah, it's very helpful if it advances the Islamist agenda to destabilize your enemies.

It's limited ultimately. It's very unlikely to result in direct destabilization of Egypt. But they shoot for it, and hope that it contributes to the discreditation of all the [moderate, pro American] Arab regimes [egypt, jordan, saudi arabia] and in that sense, shows that there is an authentic movement in the region that has two manifestations, the Iranians and the Muslim Brotherhood, who are resistant to the regional order and the status quo. ...

What you end up with here are two groups of political actors with domestic and internal motivations that largely don’t have to do with Gaza. And they are using the lives of these people like casino chips...

March 14 site: "We must 'crush' Hamas and not 'destroy' it"

يجب تحطيم "حماس" وليس القضاء عليها!