"... The current "Junta" does not have the margin which was available to Nasser during the 50s ..."

The current moment in Egypt will define the the near future of this country and the whole Middle East. But the complexity of the moment makes it difficult for anyone here to feel reassured. If the main issue now is stability, and it indeed is, that does not make things easier. Stability is a very abstract word.  It varies according to the specific situation that calls for it. The specific situation in Egypt now is moving quickly under the pressure of multiple forces. The main is an awakened population that is confident and determined to participate in the process of shaping the future. The second is obviously the armed forces which is confident of the popular support and determined to play a role.

But these simple facts are not as simple as they seem. The confidence and determination of the population triggered a wave of strikes among workers and employees of public services. This can very well lead to gradual lack of patience among the Generals who run the ruling military council and gradually encourages them to adopt a tougher line. Part of the the youth who sparked this uprising think they should carry on with their protests to make sure that the Junta - using Col Lang،s word - will abide by the will of the population which can lead to the same effect. The disintegration of the police force may as well help that trend.

These are the issues of the near term. On a longer range the role of the military now will be decisive in providing long term stability. If Nasser is an example, he moved slowly in the span of two years (1952-54) from promising "true democracy" to ousting Gen. Mohamed Naguib (the first president of Egypt) by force and imposing a horrifying police state with him sitting on top. Nasser could do that under the umbrella of major national victories like the treatment to end British occupation. the nationalization of the Suez Canal, and building the Aswan dam etc. This particular police state guaranteed stability for few decades but it is the main culprit of the total collapse of the regime that we have just witnessed. The current "Junta" does not have the margin which was available to Nasser during the 50s which helped him build a terrifying state apparatus , and if it does, no one wants to see the same results any way of this kind of stability that was built by a police state.

The global context is very different now, and the current "junta" can not offer what is needed and should not be allowed to try simply because that threatens both the stability of Egypt in the long term and the role of the military. Therefore, another immediate task assigned to the military is to stick strictly to a "transitional" role and prepare for its future role as guarantor of the civil state that Egyptians want to build. In other words, it should be the Egyptian version of the Turkish military.

The Muslem Brothers (MBs) pop up here as a question mark. But the performance of this organization during the uprising reveals all its weak points "en gros". They first declared that they will not participate in the protests (Essam Alaryan in two public statements the 24th and the 27th of Jan). Then, they decided to participate when they saw the huge numbers of the protesters. The Elders of the organization agreed very reluctantly to the decision. Then they agreed to negotiate with the regime which caused a wave of anger fro the protesters and the orginazation own bases who were participating, then they apologized for their participation saying it was merely "exploratory", Along this zig-zag they did not succeed in changing the main slogans of the uprising and were satisfied with few symbolic things like leading the prayers and chanting "Allahu Akbar" which is very much Egyptian in general not a MBs exclusivity. I have witnessed several attempts of members to chant "Allahu Akbar Wa Lelah Alhamd" which is exclusively an MB slogan immediately after announcing Mubarak departure, but it did not go far. It soon drowned in a flood of other slogans chanting "freedom". While it was emotionally moving, it was a non deliberate message to the Brothers that it is not the time to cast themselves in any shape other than the rest of the population.

if anything is obvious now to this organization it is its paralysis to adapt to a popular uprising. Their last attempt to do so was in the 40s when they were counseling "patience" and "negotiations" with the Brits during Egypts struggle for independence. During the 70s they were spreading Fatwas - religious decrees - which states that demonstrations and strikes are "Haram". The recent events in Egypt manifest as well the shortcomings of their organizational structure. For those who know how this group works it is almost impossible to change their organizational philosophy. It is obvious therefore that the group will witness many internal problems and possibly splits if the general political climate changes. We have seen during the 40s for example the majority secular party (Al wafd) defeats the Brothers in every Parliamentary Elections in every district. The MBs had zero members in the successive Parliaments of that epoch..."