Sunday, February 13, 2011

Israel might find it hard to aggress to the East when it's anxious from its West ...

"...Mubarak was thrown out, before he could prepare one of his close aides or his son to take over as president. The army commanders who took over are trying to calm the Egyptian public and the international community with promises that they have no intentions of setting up a new junta in Cairo, but rather, plan to pass to transfer authority to a civilian government through free elections. But no one, including the generals in the Supreme Council of the Armed forces, knows how and when the regime transition will play out. History teaches us that after revolutions, it takes a number of years of domestic infighting before the new regime stabilizes.
This uncertainty troubles Netanyahu. His reactions during the first days of the revolution exposed deep anxieties that the peace agreement with Egypt might collapse. He tried to delay Mubarak's end as long as possible, but to no avail, and on Saturday he praised the Egyptian military's announcement that all international agreements would be respected, including the peace treaty with Israel...
....Netanyahu shared with Mubarak his concerns about the growing strength of Iran...
The toppling of the regime in Cairo does not alter this strategic logic.... This does not mean that Mubarak's successor will encourage Israel to strike the Iranian nuclear installations.
On the contrary: they will listen to Arab public opinion, which opposes a preemptive war against Iran. Israel will find it difficult to take action far to the east when it cannot rely on the tacit agreement to its actions on its western border. Without Mubarak there is no Israeli attack on Iran..."

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