Friday, November 13, 2009

The Israeli-Palestinian doomsday scenario

FP, here

".... That would be bad for Israel -- but the resurrection of Hamas in the West Bank would be disastrous for the PLO. While Abbas is trying to use this possibility to threaten Israel to freeze settlement construction, it's hard to believe he would actually shoot himself in the foot in this way. ..... In the absence of a clear path towards a negotiated peace, and especially following Hamas's armed 2007 takeover in Gaza, the PA's authority has greatly diminished.

Nevertheless, the dissolution of the PA would be a disaster for any hopes of peace, and for the average Palestinian. For the PLO, it would likely mark a return to "resistance" over negotiations. At the same time, the ostensible reason for the PLO-Hamas division would be erased, paving the way for reconciliation between the two parties -- and, given Hamas's decreased popularity, possibly the eventual return of the PLO's dominance of Gaza. On the other hand, a PLO-Hamas rapprochement would strengthen the hardliners in Israel. Western support -- from financial aid to General Dayton's training of Palestinian Authority security forces -- would also presumably decline with the dissolution of the PA....."

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