Stuck in Syria, With No Way Home

Jonathan Finer and Jennifer Rikoski in the WaPo, here

"....Damascus is the epicenter of the Middle East's gravest humanitarian disaster since the Palestinian refugee crisis of 1948. We traveled there this spring to learn more about the plight of Iraqi refugees and the international community's tepid response. Unlike its neighbors, who have imposed strict visa requirements, Syria has done little to discourage the flow of migrants across its border and hosts an estimated 1.4 million Iraqis -- almost two-thirds of the post-invasion diaspora. With no legal status or right to work, their prospects are bleak. The wealthy and well-connected found their way to richer countries, and Syria's dysfunctional relations with the West have hamstrung efforts to provide assistance....

......The United States, which is more responsible for the burgeoning humanitarian disaster than any other nation, has pledged $208 million -- the equivalent of a rounding error in a war costing hundreds of millions a day. In 2008......."

Israel concerned: Frost around Syria is melting in Europe

Barak Ravid in Haaretz, here

"....Last week, Israel's ambassadors in key European capitals received a classified telegram pointing out that the recent contacts by leading European figures are the first signs of the breakdown of Syria's isolation.
Haaretz received a copy of the content of the telegram, which was authored by the deputy head of the Western Europe division at the Foreign Ministry, Rafi Barak. The note also included instructions for diplomatic activities in those capitals.
"It must be explained to the Europeans that the negotiations have still not begun and therefore they must be careful and measured in contacts vis a vis the Syrians," the note read.
Barak added in the note that the Israeli diplomats should ask the Europeans to treat Syrian requests carefully, "until we can tell if they are serious [in their intentions]." "The Europeans need to be reminded that Syria continues to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah, supports Hamas and Islamic Jihad and is not disengaging from Iran. All these are issues of great concern for Israel, and they are still on the table, unresolved."

Two attacks on Lebanese Army checkpoints ...

The first, in North Lebanon, where 1 soldier was killed and a second in the Ain el Helweh refugee camp in South Lebanon, where the Army foiled a suicide attack by killing the 'perpetrator' ...

[Update: LBC reported that RPG and machine gun fire overheard in the Southern refugee camp of Al Rashidiyeh...]

Bush to Sfeir: "..lousy Doha agreement gives everything to the Opposition..."

Jean Aziz in Al Akhbar, here

ثلاث نقاط منفصلة شكلاً، ومترابطة ضمناً وفعلاً، استوقفت أحد الذين حضروا لقاء بوش صفير..

الأولى كانت الاستياء الواضح لدى الرئيس الأميركي، مما تناهى إليه من معلومات عن اتفاق الدوحة الذي كانت تفاصيله الأخيرة موضع إنجاز في لحظة الاجتماع. ولم يتردد بوش في التعبير عن امتعاضه مما توصّل إليه المجتمعون في العاصمة القطرية. وبمزيج من الأسى والمرارة وبعض الازدراء، أعرب سيّد البيت الأبيض عن اعتقاده بأن هذا الاتفاق يعني «إعطاء كل شيء للمعارضة». ولمّا حاول الاستفسار عن بعض التفاصيل وآخر ما تسقّطه ضيوفه عن المؤتمر ونتائجه، لم يلاقِ بوش غير الصمت والاكتفاء بما كان قد بات معروفاً، وغياب أي معلومات جديدة أو دقيقة..

النقطة الثانية التي فاجأت الحاضرين، جاءت زمنياً بعد كلام ثانوي وهامشي فاصل عن الاستياء الأول. إذ لم يلبث بوش أن استعاد تجهّمه، ليسأل ضيوفه عن العماد ميشال عون. مرّة جديدة كان الصمت سيّد الموقف. لكن تعابير وجه الرئيس أشارت بوضوح إلى معادلة ربط سببي، يقيمها زعيم العالم، بين ما حصل في الدوحة من انتصار للمعارضة، وبين الدور الذي قام به هذا الجنرال الذي تسأل عنه واشنطن. وإزاء صمت الحاضرين، حاول الرئيس الأميركي الذهاب أبعد في السؤال، فاستفسر من الوفد الكنسي الرفيع ما إذا كان أعضاؤه يعتبرون عون مسيحياً ملتزماً ومؤمناً. فبادره أحد الأساقفة بالإجابة المؤكدة، ومشدّداً على إعطاء شهادته الشخصية في مسيحية الجنرال. تراجع بوش عن سؤاله، وعادت أطراف الحديث لتغرق في العاديات والهوامش.
بعد مضيّ أكثر من ثلثي الوقت المخصص للّقاء، والقصير أصلاً، بدا للحاضرين أن المسألة لا تتعدى معادلة اجتماع مجاملة، أو «جلسة شاي ومسامرة»، كما يقول المثل الإنكليزي. عندها طلب أحد الحاضرين الكلام، ليوجّه إلى الرئيس الأميركي سؤالاً محدداً: «ماذا سيحصل بالنسبة إلى اللاجئين الفلسطينيين المقيمين في لبنان؟».
هنا قفزت النقطة الثالثة المرتبطة موضوعياً بسابقتَيها. إذ لم يجد الرئيس الأميركي غير الرد بنوع من السؤال ـــــ الجزويتي: «وإلى أين سيذهبون؟ أوليسوا في حالة إقامة مستقرة في لبنان؟».
حلّ شبه ذهول على وجوه الضيوف الروحيين اللبنانيين، قبل أن يكسره أحد الأساقفة بالرد على السؤال ـــــ الانطباع، محاولاً تفنيده وإقناع صاحبه بأن أوضاع الفلسطينيين في لبنان سيئة جداً، ومتردّية، ولا يمكن بأي حال وصفها بالإقامة المستقرة. والأهم أن هذه الإقامة لا يمكن أن تبقي استقراراً في لبنان، في حال تطبيعها أو تأبيدها أو تحويلها توطيناً. أخذ زعيم العالم علماً بوجهة النظر، هزّ رأسه مومئاً بالفهم والاستيعاب وانتهى اللقاء.
المعارضة أخذت كل شيء في الدوحة. ميشال عون مسؤول عمّا حدث. «الإقامة المستقرة» للفلسطينيين في لبنان باتت مسألة أكثر صعوبة وتعقيداً. ثلاث نقاط مرّت من دون ضجيج في واشنطن، لكنها تلقي الكثير من الضوء على أحداث الأعوام القليلة الماضية، وعلى ما قد يأتي.

Deputy Director of National Intelligence Kerr: "

In the WaPo, here

".....Kerr's analysis, in a speech Thursday evening that he posited as a presidential intelligence briefing delivered on Jan. 21, 2009, contrasted with more optimistic administration forecasts of rapprochement among Iraq's political forces and a possible Middle East peace agreement in the next eight months. It also seemed at odds with CIA Director Michael V. Hayden's judgment that al-Qaeda is now on the defensive throughout the world, including along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border...........predicted that the Bush administration would make little progress before leaving office on top national security priorities including an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement, political reconciliation in Iraq and keeping Iran from being able to produce a nuclear weapon..."

US diplomatic sway in the Arab world is on the wane

David Ignatius in the Daily Star, here
"....Recognizing that US efforts to check the radical militia had failed, the Lebanese did the pragmatic thing - they sued for peace under the formula the Bush administration has been resisting for more than a year........And in the long run, it's surely to America's advantage if regional powers can create a stable security architecture - even if it isn't precisely the one we would have designed for them. We've tried imposing our own solutions, and frankly that hasn't worked very well"

Joschka Fischer: " As things look, Israel may well attack Iran soon..."

Germany's foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1998 to 2005 has this Opinion in the Daily Star, here

"....the Israeli political process is leading to the end of [Olmert's] career and is unstoppable."

In McClatchy's, here

"....Olmert heads to the United States next week to meet with President Bush. The two leaders will discuss how to use their evaporating political clout to secure a peace deal between Israel and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, how to neutralize Iran's nuclear program and whether Israel should engage Syrian President Bashar Assad in substantive negotiations.

"If indeed Syria and the Palestinians are at a crossroads, the fact that (Olmert) has so weakened himself may burn that option for Israel to seize that moment," said Ezrahi. "The opportunities for a negotiated settlement are so scarce that it is a real tragedy to waste so much energy and then have it foiled by the collapse of a corrupt prime minister."

If Olmert falls, then Israelis, much like Americans, are likely to spend this fall debating whether they want a fresh face looking to cut peace deals with Syria and the Palestinians, or a more hawkish leader...."

... and yet,"the road to peace in Iraq runs directly through Tehran"

"...Hysteria over this week's arms report is misplaced, and US attempts to cast Iran as the villain of the region can only backfire"...... and propping up "moderate" Shiites as an alternative to Hezbollah and Iran is not the answer, and that it's foolish to believe that the US can stabilize Iraq and the Middle East without accomodating Iran. Nevertheless, the US continues its search for "moderate" Shiites, and refuse to even consider the idea of trying to find a negotiated regional settlement with Iran,....... in the Guardian, via WPR, here

Optimism in Washington & Me'rab: "Hezbollah's takeover of Beirut this month will actually lead to the group's downfall"

In the New Republic, here

U.S.-Iran regional power plays shift..

In the CSM, here

"...Iran's 'axis of resistance' may seem ascendant, but new chances for peace could redefine game in US's favor?..." Iran was willing to start talks on issues from its nuclear program to a "just peace … in regions that suffer from instability, militarism, violence, and terrorism," according to an unofficial translation. Iran would cooperate to "assist the Palestinian people to find a comprehensive plan" that was "sustainable, democratic, and fair" – effectively a peace deal with Israel, without using either word in the text.

"It's a significant departure in foreign policy. I think they are serious," says a political scientist in Tehran, who asked not to be named."This is part of an overall approach that may be a prelude … to show the next president that Iran could be worked with,"

Swiss destroy evidence in nuclear smuggling case ... under pressure by the US

In the Washington Examiner, here .. and Al Jazeera, here
"......the files were secretly ordered destroyed by the government last year after pressure from the United States ...."

Iran Refined Oil Blockade

The WSJ, here via Warandpiece and here in MoJo:

On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal opinion editors proposed a plan for a naval blockade on Iran of refined gasoline imports. But they don't say where they got the idea.

The Journal:

The Administration would do better to withdraw from this international charade and consider means by which the mullahs might be persuaded that their regime's survival is better assured by not having nuclear weapons. A month-long naval blockade of Iran's imports of refined gasoline – which accounts for nearly half of its domestic consumption – could clarify for the Iranians just how unacceptable their nuclear program is to the civilized world.

Here was Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz in January explaining the idea of thirty year Israeli intelligence veteran Shmuel Bar:

Dr. Shmuel Bar, a researcher at the Herzliya Interdisciplinary Center and one of the discussion's initiators, believes that the U.S. can still prevent Iran from reaching the next stage in its program of nuclear development. In place of economic sanctions imposed by the UN, which he feels are ineffective, he proposes imposing a naval blockade on all refined petroleum products imported to Iran.

Sound familiar?

On its face while not as militaristic as advocating air strikes, such a blockade may also constitute the kind of provocation that would force international conflict just the same, which may be its proposors real intentions. Don't miss how they've managed to enter it into the public policy discourse in Washington, and watch for it to be become a more frequent talking point in right leaning national security circles and McCain's speeches."

Saad Hariri: "Assad's hands behind my father's death ... Hezbollah to be defanged within a year..."

In Corriere Della Sera, here (Italian)

Memo to Scott McClellan: Here's what happened

McClatchy's/ Nukes & Spooks' Warren P. Strobel and Jonathan S. Landay have this great "memo", here

Sarkozy lauds Assad's "swift role" in reaching Doha agreement ...

Al Jazeera, here ........noteworthy here is the fact that, Syria 'blessed' Doha after having gotten guarantees that it is back in the game. In a nutshell, this will become very obvious when & if the "Unity Government" gets formed ...Watch the revival of many politicians pegged as Syria's men, in the new government.

After Lugar, Feinstein "Kills Off" False Iran Report

Laura Rosen in MoJo, here

"..Sen Feinstein has not received any briefing classified or unclassified from the administration about any plans to strike Iran," Scott Gerber, a spokesman for Feinstein, told me today. "And we're seeking a correction to the Asia Times report."

Wurmser "regrets" that Proliferation Security Initiative has gown .. and questions its "Effectiveness"....

Eli Lake in the NYSun, here

Condolezza Rice to resign within weeks...? if so, it's an "indication of imminent hostilities."

In RBN via MoonOfAlabama, here

".....Secretary of State Condolezza Rice is expected to resign within weeks to pursue a new academic position at Stanford University. Her current position will be filled by Stephen J. Hadley......"

Marines are pushing Christianity in Fallujah...

In McClatchy's, here

U.S. Marines are handing out this coin, imprinted with a Gospel verse, to Fallujah residents.

Search Is Urged for Syrian "Nuclear Sites"...

By Joby Warrick and Robin Wright, in the WaPo, here

"....The absence of a clear fuel source for the reactor -- as well as a fuel-reprocessing facility for extracting plutonium -- has baffled experts who have studied the Syrian project. "It's like having a car but not enough gas to run it," said David Albright, a former U.N. nuclear inspector in Iraq and the president of the Institute for Science and International Security..."

Iran-Syria sign defence pact ...

So much for 'flipping' Syria ... in AFP, here

Bush: US 'learning as we go' in Iraq, Afghanistan

Now, this is very comforting for the Iraqis, Afghanis & Americans! AP, here .... "Yet Bush's words were vastly overshadowed by those of the man who once spoke for him, Scott McClellan, the former press secretary. Stunning the White House, McClellan wrote in a new book that Bush favored propaganda over honesty in selling the war to the public..."

Hadley: "Missile-related shipment to Syria stopped in 2007"... part of the "propaganda" McClellan spoke about (below)

Reuters, here

"One example of its success occurred in February 2007, when four nations represented in this room worked together to interdict equipment bound for Syria -- equipment that could have been used to test ballistic missile components," Hadley said ..."

and Dana Milbank in WaPo, here

",,,,Of course, no matter how honorable and selfless and well-liked Hadley may be, he had a hidden hand in the decisions that the former press secretary describes. Bush and his advisers "confused the propaganda campaign with the high level of candor and honesty so fundamentally needed to build and then sustain public support during a time of war," McClellan writes.

But Hadley survives, and so does the propaganda. It was being churned out again yesterday morning before the Proliferation Security Initiative, a five-year-old counterproliferation effort by the Bush administration that Hadley hailed as "successful all over the world" in interdicting nuclear equipment...."

لماذا يبدو جنبلاط مطمئنّاً أكثر من نصر اللّه؟

جان عزيز

أكثر من عامين مضيا، قبل بداية الحديث عن «الانقلاب على الطائف». لكن ساعات قليلة كانت كافية لبدء السؤال: هل بدأت محاولة الانقلاب على الدوحة؟
الإشارات كثيرة ومقلقة. ميدانياً عودة نمط الاشتباكات الليلية. من المزرعة والطريق الجديدة، إلى عرمون وتخوم الشوف، وصولاً إلى صيدا، بما تحمل من دلالات نفسية وجماعية متوترة ومشحونة. خارجياً سلسلة طويلة من التحفظات التي بدأت تخدش بلّور التسوية. الأميركيون يتحدثون عن «عمل كثير يجب القيام به بعد». الفرنسيون تذكّروا أن «اتفاق الدوحة لا يحل كل شيء». حتى كوشنير الذي رقص للتسوية في ساحة النجمة، استدرك أمس «إنها لم تسوِّ الأمور في العمق». قبل أن يتوقع بان كي مون «ألّا يحل اتفاق الدوحة كل المشاكل العالقة».
هل هي إرهاصات «الثورة المضادة»، كما حصل بداية عهد فؤاد شهاب سنة 1958؟ وهل حدودها إعادة تصحيح طفيفة في الموازين، تلغي شعور النكسة لدى البعض؟
قد تكون هذه القراءة مطمئنة، لولا الكلام الأكثر بعداً وتطلعاً في أوساط الموالاة، وحتى في الأوساط السياسية المراقبة والعارفة.
أحد أركان 14 آذار يحرص على التعبير عن ارتياحه إلى مسار الأمور، منذ 5 أيار، تاريخ القرارين ومعركتهما، حتى الدوحة وما بعدها. يختصر اقتناعه الواثق بعبارة المثل القروي المعروف: «الواوي بلع المنجل...» لكنه لا يكتفي بالثقافة الشعبية للقياس والاستدلال. بل يغرف من ثقافة التاريخ السياسي.
يقول: إنها المرة الثالثة التي يسعى فيها طرف ما، وفي شكل معلن، إلى إقامة حالة تعايش أو مساكنة غير شرعية، بين دويلته والدولة.
المرة الأولى كانت أواخر الستينيات. يومها حاول أبو عمار فرض معادلة التعايش بين الدويلة الفلسطينية والدولة اللبنانية، مستعيناً بقسم من اللبنانيين، ومستغلاً تهاون المؤسسات الدستورية وضعفها. لكن الأمر لم يلبث أن ولّد حالة مرضية، تمثّلت في الأزمة الحكومية واتفاق القاهرة سنة 69، واستمرت تعتمل داخل الجسم اللبناني حتى انفجرت البلاد على مراحل، بين نيسان 69 ونيسان 73، وصولاً إلى نيسان 75، لينتهي الأمر، ولو بعد وقت طويل نسبياً، إلى سقوط الدويلة الفلسطينية، وصمود الدولة اللبنانية، بعد تبدّل الاقتناعات الداخلية والظروف الخارجية.
في المرة الثانية، يتابع ركن الموالاة، حاول بشير الجميل تكرار تجربة المساكنة نفسها. بين أواخر السبعينيات ومطلع الثمانينبات، نجح قائد القوات اللبنانية يومها، في فرض معادلة التعايش نفسها على إلياس سركيس. في أقل من أربعة أعوام، تحوّلت تلك المعادلة إلى حقل ألغام فجّرت كل المعنيين بها، وفتحت البلاد على كل أخطار الخارج والداخل.
اليوم يسعى «حزب الله» إلى تكرار التجربة العرفاتية ـــــ القواتية، يقول المسؤول في قوى الموالاة. لكن إرهاصاتها تبدو منذ الآن مطابقة للسابقتين. فكما انزلقت «المقاومة الفلسطينية» إلى زقاق الفاكهاني حتى انتهت، وكما تراجعت «المقاومة اللبنانية» إلى حدود طموح بعبدا، هكذا ستتحوّل «المقاومة الإسلامية» إلى فزّاعة لباقي الجماعات اللبنانية، حتى تفقد شرعية وجودها وبقائها.
اللافت أن هذه القراءة الذاتية من ركن أساسي في الموالاة، تتطابق مع أخرى موضوعية لدى مصدر سياسي مواكب ومطّلع. يقول المصدر: ما هذه المفارقة في الاطمئنان الجنبلاطي اللافت والجلي؟ رغم كل عوارض النكسة، ونتائج المعركة، يبدو سيّد المختارة واثقاً من المرحلة المقبلة. فهل ثمّة من أسرّ إليه بقراءة مغايرة للظاهر والمعلن؟
يتساءل المصدر نفسه: في السبعينيات والثمانينيات، استدرج السلاح الفلسطيني إلى الداخل اللبناني، حتى إغراقه واستنزافه، وخصوصاً حتى إظهار عبئه وكلفته على مؤيديه وداعميه. فصار التدخل الإسرائيلي ممكناً للتخلّص منه. وأواخر الثمانينيات ومطلع التسعينيات استدرج السلاح المسيحي إلى داخل الجماعة المسيحية نفسها. افتعلت معارك التدمير الذاتي، حتى تكوّن انطباع مسيحي بأن كلفة بقاء هذا السلاح صارت أكبر من جدواه، فصار التدخل السوري ممكناً للتخلّص منه، بعد تبدّل مزاج بيئته نفسها. فهل ثمّة مخطط ثالث اليوم لتحويل سلاح المقاومة إلى عبء باهظ الكلفة، حتى على أهله وساحته، تمهيداً لخطوة ما تحاول إنهاءه؟ وهل إيصال قائد الجيش بالذات إلى سدّة الرئاسة إجراء وقائي واستباقي في إطار المخطط نفسه، لضمان «شبكة أمان» عسكرية وأمنية في حدها الأدنى، تكون جاهزة لمنع الانهيار الكامل، حين يأتي الاستحقاق الكبير؟
مفارقة أن يبدو وليد جنبلاط أكثر اطمئناناً من حسن نصر الله. ومخاطرة أن تجري مقاربة اتفاق الدوحة بين الانقلاب عليه وتحويله إلى فخّ.

Rachel Ray, terrorist sympathizer? ... or perpetuating ignorance in America...

In FP/Blog, here,............"Poor Rachel Ray. The Food Network hostess unwittingly unleashed the fury of blogger Michelle Malkin last Friday when she wore a black-and-white, paisley scarf in an ad for Dunkin Donuts. Upon learning of the ad, Malkin called Ray "clueless" and upbraided her for wearing "jihadi chic":Charles Johnson notes, and many readers have e-mailed about, Dunkin Donuts' spokeswoman Rachel Ray's clueless sporting of a jihadi chic keffiyeh in a recent DD ad campaign. I'm hoping her hate couture choice was spurred more by ignorance than ideology. Feeling the blogospheric heat, Dunkin Donuts decided to pull the ad even though, as you can clearly see, the scarf is not a checked keffiyeh at all.......... (For what it's worth, the keffiyeh is a secular symbol of Palestinian nationalism, though the Palestinian movement has obviously become more Islamist in recent decades. Just because you wear it doesn't mean you espouse violence, only that you take the Palestinian side in the conflict.)"

Putting an "Iran Rumor" to Rest....

Laura Rosen in MoJo

"Yesterday, AsiaTimes ran a story saying 'Bush plans air strikes' on Iran by August. "After receiving secret briefings on the planned air strike, Senator Diane Feinstein, Democrat of California, and Senator Richard Lugar, Republican of Indiana, said they would write a New York Times op-ed piece 'within days', the source said last week, to express their opposition," the outlet reported, adding that the oped hadn't materialized.

I chased down Senator Lugar's spokesman today who told me the story is flat out untrue. Senator Lugar "wasn't briefed, there's no oped," says Andy Fischer, spokesman for Lugar, who is vice chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Fischer said he'd been getting calls about the bogus report for two days.

Trita Parsi, the head of the pro-engagement National Iranian American Council and a former Congressional staffer, tells me he too heard the rumor of Congressional briefing on Iran, but that the whole thing "doesn’t make sense to me though." Parsi said."

".... Jeffrey Feltman m'a offerte la Presidence à condition que je brise mon entente avec le Hezbollah..."

Michel Aoun with Scarlett HADDAD, in L'Orient Le Jour, here

Siniora's nomination means a delay in adopting the new electoral law ....and, possibly a return to the 'street'...

Siniora means a premeditated delay in forming the National unity government, and most importantly, means a delay in ADOPTING A NEW ELECTORAL LAW!

Alas, it could mean a return to arms!

McClellan: "Bush was not open and forthright on Iraq... Rove & Libby deceived Bush & the American people ..."

In Politico, here, via War&Piece.

".....Among the most explosive revelations in the 341-page book, titled “What Happened: Inside the Bush White House and Washington’s Culture of Deception” :
• McClellan charges that Bush relied on “propaganda” to sell the war.
• He says the White House press corps was too easy on the administration during the run-up to the war.
• He admits that some of his own assertions from the briefing room podium turned out to be “badly misguided.”
• The longtime Bush loyalist also suggests that two top aides held a secret West Wing meeting to get their story straight about the CIA leak case at a time when federal prosecutors were after them — and McClellan was continuing to defend them despite mounting evidence they had not given him all the facts.
• McClellan asserts that the aides — Karl Rove, the president’s senior adviser, and I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby, the vice president’s chief of staff — “had at best misled” him about their role in the disclosure of former CIA operative Valerie Plame’s identity...."

Assad accuses the Saudis of 'conspiring' to topple his regime ...

In Al Akhbar, here

كذلك شرح الأسد لموسى وبإسهاب تفاصيل ما تقوم به القيادات الرئيسية في المملكة العربية السعودية ضد سوريا الدولة، وضد النظام فيها، عارضاً أمامه الوقائع عن مواقف واتصالات أجراها الملك عبد الله ووزير خارجيته سعود الفيصل ورئيس الاستخبارات مقرن ومسؤول الأمن القومي بندر بن سلطان، من أجل جر «الأجنبي الغربي» إلى غزو سوريا وضرب النظام فيها، أو التحضير لأعمال تهدد النظام العام وتهدف إلى قلب النظام في سوريا.

Washington & Riyadh choose 'escalation' as Siniora appears to be headed back to the Serail...

This means that the Opposition's Ministers will be picked from a feisty breed of men capable of 'picking fights' at the Council of Ministers, ... It means that President Sleiman shall definitely slog it with Siniora as to the interpretations of 'Executive Powers' ... and it also means that the lull (as many described the Doha agreement) shall be much shorter than expected.

Siniora's adviser Al Sayyed: "Doha is a lull ..a permanent solution requires a regional conflagration ..."

Redwan Al Sayyed in Al Hayat, here

والواقع أن سلاح «حزب الله» هو سلاح استراتيجي إيراني، أي أنه مسألة اقليمية ولا حل لها إلا في نطاق وسياق تسويات اقليمية أو صراعات اقليمية مدمرة،

جاء لقاء قطر بعد تفجر العلاقات الشيعية - السنّية في لبنان تفجراً نهائياً، وبلوغ حدود الحرب الأهلية بين الطرفين. وقد أحدث اللقاء «هدنة على دخن»، وهذه الهدنة أو هذا اللقاء يذكر من جهة بالاتفاق الثلاثي الذي لم يصمد، لكنه يفتح من جديد على تواصل عربي واقليمي، يشبه ذلك الذي حصل بعد فشل الاتفاق الثلاثي وأوصل الى الطائف. بيد ان التواصل هذه المرة إذا تطور باتجاه عودة حقيقية للاستقرار، يتطلب توازنات جديدة تصنعها في العادة وللأسف، الحروب وليس إرادات السلم الأهلي والاقليمي

Lebanon's Prime Minister?

US Marine: "My first & third kills in Iraq were innocent men walking & biking..."

WATCH the video via Huffington Post, here

Gea'gea's "reticence" ....

Feith: "How Bush Sold the War"

Doug Feith's Opinion in the WSJ, here

"......To fight a long war, the president has to ensure he can preserve public and congressional support for the effort. It is not an overstatement to say that the president's shift in rhetoric nearly cost the U.S. the war. Victory or defeat can hinge on the president's words as much as on the military plans of his generals or the actions of their troops on the ground...."

Next week, the US will face Hezbollah from across the same cabinet room table, not as bludgeoned, defeated foes, but rather as partners & colleagues..

Rami Khouri for Agence Global, here

"......We are witnessing the clear limits of the projection of American global power, combined with the assertion and coexistence of multiple regional powers (Turkey, Israel, Iran, Hizbullah, Syria, Hamas, Saudi Arabia, etc.). These local powers tend to fight and negotiate at the same time, and ultimately prefer to make reasonable compromises rather than perpetually to wage absolutist battles.
The Doha accord for Lebanon was much more than simply a victory for Iranian-backed Hizbullah over the American-backed March 14 alliance. It is the first concrete example in the Arab world of a negotiated, formal political agreement by local adversaries to share power and make big national decisions collectively, while maintaining close strategic relationships with diverse external patrons in the United States, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria........."

Atomic Monitor Signals Concern Over Iran’s Work, ... but says it finds no proof of 'weapons program continued after 2004'...

In "an unusually blunt and detailed report......" , the NYTimes, here, but the LATimes says that the 'report' finds NO proof "...that the weapons program continued after 2004, it says, echoing a U.S. intelligence assessment in December..." here

Iran-Syria-Hizballah-Hamas. A Coalition Against Nature Why Does it Work?

....published by the Proteus Monograph Series Fellows Program, at the Center for Strategic Leadership, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, Penn, here, thanks to War&Piece

Bolton: "...If the Israelis really wanted to negotiate with somebody, they ought to be in Tehran, not in Damascus..."

Bolton in the National Journal, here

... of note, Sunday 25th of May...

Fmr. President Emile Lahoud with the Resistance Bloc

Saad Hariri with US Congressmen & DCM Michele Sison

President Michel Sleiman

Désarmer le Hezbollah «aurait été une erreur majeure»

Georges Corm in Paris Match, via AngryArab.

".....Seule une résistance mobile, issue et fondue dans la population peut être dissuasive. En réalité, et compte tenu aussi de notre passé houleux, et souvent douloureux avec la Syrie, l’organisation de gardes-frontières mobilisant les habitants des régions frontalières avec Israël comme avec la Syrie, est la solution d’avenir....."

On 'flipping' Syria, prospects for peace

Helena Cobban, here

"Guess what. When the Syrians were negotiating a final-status peace with first Rabin and then Peres in the period 1994-96, they were looking at something exactly like that same model: (Sinai) a complete Israeli withdrawal back to the lines of June 4, 1967, in return for an internationally monitored demilitarization arrangement for Golan plus considerable economic benefits for Israel..."

Dennis Ross to Al Hayat: "Syria-Israel & Doha agreement are evidence of US eclipse..."

In Al Hayat, here

Sistani's "sources" deny anti-US Fatwas ....

In KulilIraq, here

As 'some' prepare to finally vacate, Beirut regains a sense of hope & normalcy...

".....Will this Summer of Love last? Perhaps. But Lebanon's sectarian system is built on balance among all the countries religious groups, where change is almost always violent. Hizballah will soon have a disproportionate amount of power -- a veto in the cabinet, a favorable electoral law that could give the opposition a majority in the next presidential election, and in case it ever feels threatened, the country's only effective military force. Hizballah needs to be magnanimous in victory, or sooner or later, the scales will tip back."

With an eye to "the era after President Bush", the Middle East moves ahead...

In McClatchy's, here

"......leaders in the Middle East, both friend and foe, are now calculating with an eye to the era after President Bush — who visited Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt this month with little visible effect......

.....Bush has cut his administration out of the game. Under Bush, U.S. diplomats have had few substantive discussions with Iran, Syria, Hezbollah or the militant Palestinian group Hamas, which in 2006 won elections that the White House had pushed for....

.....Murphy, referring to Lebanon, said: "Maybe we didn't do quite enough, and said too much."

Firas Maksad, a well-connected Lebanese-American analyst in Washington, said U.S.-backed Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and members of his March 14 movement urged the Bush administration not to take too public a role, for fear that they'd be labeled American lackeys....."

"... now, now, go back to sleep Mr. President!..."

Baabda Presidential Palace awaits "President Michel Aoun" says Al Jazeera!

I hope Al Jazeera was not responsible for printing invitation cards.....

قصر بعبدا الرئاسي ينتظر العماد ميشال عون بعد انتخابه من قبل البرلمان

If Mr. Bush cannot use his remaining months in office to 'encourage diplomacy' , he can at least get out of the way!

New York Times Editorial, here

...Top of "Burj Dubai"....

BAE & Bandar in the news ....

"Col Lang,......."I wanted to flag your attention, and the attention of your readers, to some new dramatic developments in a story you reported last year. The U.S. Department of Justice is agressively pursuing their case against BAE Systems, the British arms company, which is accused of paying billions of dollars in bribes to Saudi officials, including the former Ambassador in Washington, Prince Bandar. Bandar alone is said to have received over $2 billion in BAE kickbacks, for his role in the "Al Yamamah" deal between Britain and Saudi Arabia (I hear that the actual figure paid to Bandar and some of his henchmen was closer to $10 billion). On May 12, two top executives of BAE, Chairman Mike Turner and an outside director who is also vice chairman of Barclay's Bank, were detained by U.S. officials as they arrived at Houston and Newark airports, respectively. They were handed grand jury subpoenas, and had their laptops, cell phones and papers temporarily confiscated. The latest from the DOJ is that the career prosecutors are so furious at the British government's stonewalling, that they are threatening RICO prosecutions against BAE. Remember, that the real story behind the BAE "Al Yamamah" scandal is that, under the arms-for-oil barter deal, the British accumulated well-over $100 billion, in off-the-books, offshore funds, that have been used to finance covert operations, for the past 23 years (the deal was first signed in 1985, and has been regularly updated ever since). The other nagging matter around the BAE case is that Prince Bandar "inadvertently" helped finance the 9/11 attacks, through funds provided by him and his wife to two Saudi intelligence operative in California, who, in turn, bankrolled two of the hijackers. This sordid tale is spelled out in Philip Shenon's admirable expose of the 9/11 Commission investigation, in the 2008 book, The Commission--The Uncensored History of the 9/11 Investigation. My own sources have independently corroborated much of what Shenon reports. For their part, the Saudis and the British are not at all happy about what is going on at the DOJ. The Sunday Telegraph and other British papers have been ranting about the "heavy handed" treatment of the BAE execs, and they worry about a deeper rift, going into the upcoming G-8 summit in Japan in early July. A treaty is pending before the U.S. Senate, that would give British arms manufacturers equal access to Pentagon contracts, and a hearing was held this past week on the treaty at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Biden, Lugar and Feingold all expressed apprehension over the treaty, and there is fear that the BAE flap will further complicate its passage. Again, the biggest aspect of the BAE/"Al Yamamah" story is the offshore fund. To summarize: BAE delivered about $40 billion in arms and services to Saudi Arabia. BAE padded the bills substantially, up to nearly $80 billion. The pad was used, in part, to bribe Saudi officials who helped swing the deal, including Bandar and Prince Turki bin-Khaled, a top official of the Saudi Ministry of Defense. That part is fully detailed in the Guardian and other British coverage of the BAE scandal, going back three or four years. What is not covered in the British press is the fact that Saudi Arabia paid for the arms with oil. The oil was sold on the spot market, and this generated an estimated (in current dollars) $160 billion in cash. I am told by former U.S. Treasury Department officials that the funds generated from the oil sales, after BAE got their cut, went into offshore bank accounts. Those funds were invested by the usual hedge funds, etc. in places like the Cayman Islands, BVI, etc., and the profits over the past 23 years from those investments, multiplied the size of the fund tremendously. I look forward to any comments on this very big story, that has never gotten adequate media or Congressional attention, in my humble opinion. ...Harper"

Clinton in Talks With Obama About VP Slot ....

CNN via Bloomberg, here

Divisions Surface Between US & Israel on 'Strategy'...

Jerusalem's Talks With Damascus Highlight Tensions

By JAY SOLOMON
May 23, 2008

WASHINGTON -- Dramatic shifts in Middle East diplomacy during the past week, including a political deal in Lebanon and Israeli-Syrian peace talks, are exposing significant strategic divisions between the U.S. and its closest regional ally, Israel.

The tensions, described in interviews with U.S. and Israeli officials in recent months, counter the widespread assumption that the Bush and Israeli governments march in lockstep on foreign policy. They also provide insight into why these new diplomatic initiatives may unravel ultimately, regional analysts said.

Dramatic shifts recently in Middle East diplomacy, including a political deal in Lebanon and Israeli peace talks with Syria, are exposing significant strategic divisions between the U.S. and Israel. WSJ's Jay Solomon reports. (May 22)

The most profound strategic division between Washington and Jerusalem concerns Israel's engagement of Syrian President Bashar Assad. In revealing peace talks with Damascus this week, Israeli officials voiced a determination to peel Syria away from Iran, its principal regional ally. Among the goals is to undermine the two states' support for extremist groups Hezbollah and Hamas, which operate on Israel's borders.

But U.S. officials say the move undermines their efforts to punish Damascus. The Pentagon accuses Syria, along with Iran, of backing the continued flow of foreign fighters and munitions into Iraq, a charge Damascus denies. And U.S. diplomats believe President Assad has actively sought to topple Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora through his support of Hezbollah and other Syrian allies inside Lebanon. A United Nations-backed investigation implicated Syrian intelligence officials in the 2005 murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

Mr. Siniora's government agreed Wednesday to a power-sharing deal that many analysts believe significantly strengthens the power of Hezbollah and other Syrian and Iranian allies inside Lebanon. Members of Mr. Siniora's government have complained Western support for Beirut has been inadequate to compete with the military help provided to Hezbollah by Damascus and Tehran.

The Israelis "don't seem to understand that our interests and their interests in Lebanon aren't aligned," one senior U.S official working on the Middle East said. "In the short-term, the Israelis want to remove a threat on their border. But they don't care about" the fate of Lebanon's government.

The State Department's point man on the Middle East, Assistant Secretary of State David Welch, said widening the Middle East peace dialog could be a "good thing" for the region. But he also stressed that Washington has "reservations about the foreign-policy behavior of Syria, and its internal politics as well."

Speaking Thursday, Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni reflected the strategy in outlining her government's requirements for a peace deal. Syria must understand that peace "involves their complete renunciation of support for terror in Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran," she said.

Israeli officials say Syria's secular government is fundamentally averse to its strategic alliance with Iran's Islamist rulers. They say Damascus needs to be offered economic and diplomatic incentives to offset the assistance supplied by Iran. The talks will also focus on Israel giving control of the Golan Heights region back to Damascus.

Israelis officials are fearful of facing a three-front war involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Syria on the Golan Heights. "Maybe it's time to employ the carrot to remove [Syria] from the axis of evil," then deputy chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky, said in Washington last fall.

In recent months, Washington has moved to exact new financial sanctions against many of President Assad's closest business associates and political allies. And the U.S. has worked with Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia and Egypt, to isolate Damascus diplomatically in a bid to gain its assistance in stabilizing the region. Saudi Arabia and Egypt didn't send top leaders to the Arab Summit in Damascus this March, to snub President Assad.

Divisions between the Bush administration and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government on Syria may imperil the peace initiative. President Assad has said that such a deal is impossible without the active support of Washington. Damascus believes that American aid and the removal of U.S. sanctions on Syria would have to be part of any long-term agreement.

Bush administration officials have offered no indication that the U.S. is preparing to directly broker Syrian-Israeli talks. Instead, they say, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will focus her remaining months in office on supporting the Israeli-Palestinian peace track.

Some Syrian officials have said that a new U.S. administration that comes to power next January could be more supportive of such a peace tract. The two leading candidates to replace President Bush, Senators Barack Obama and John McCain, both released statements saying they supported Israel's position.

The view in the region, by contrast, is that Israel and the U.S. are still tightly tethered. Suleyman Haddad, the head of the foreign-affairs committee in Syria's parliament, said Syria won't agree to any conditions in return for a peace deal, such as giving up support for Hamas or Hezbollah.

He said if Israel wanted peace with Syria it "should give up all these unattainable conditions." Talking about the talks, Mr. Haddad said he didn't believe Israel would do anything "without instructions from and cooperation with the United States."

Sistani issuing Fatwas declaring that armed resistance against U.S.-led foreign troops is permissible...

In AP, here

The edicts, or fatwas, by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani suggest he seeks to sharpen his long-held opposition to American troops and counter the populist appeal of his main rivals, firebrand Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army militia.

.......For American officials, he represents a key stabilizing force in Iraq for refusing to support a full-scale Shiite uprising against U.S.-led forces or Sunnis .....

....The subtle shift could point to his growing impatience with the continued American presence more than five years after the U.S.-led invasion...

.......young Shiite men belonging to the "Troops of the Ayatollahs" (Jund al-Marja`iyyah) militia that protects the leading Shiite clerics in the Middle Euphrates have been imploring Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani for a fatwa or formal legal ruling about whether it is permissible to attack US and other foreign troops..."

Un retour à la normale s'esquisse à Beyrouth après l'accord de Doha

Le Monde, here

"....La majorité a cédé sur l'octroi à l'opposition de la minorité de blocage au sein du futur gouvernement parce que le mandat de ce dernier ne sera que d'un an. L'opposition a également obtenu des concessions quant au découpage des circonscriptions électorales. Alors que le principe adopté est celui des petites circonscriptions (le caza), les opposants ont obtenu deux exceptions : dans l'est et le sud du pays, bastions du Hezbollah et de son allié le mouvement Amal, tous les deux chiites. Le nouveau découpage de Beyrouth satisfait principalement la communauté arménienne qui se sentait lésée..."

McCain Pastor: Islam Is a 'Conspiracy of Spiritual Evil'

ABC News, here

McCain sought the support of Pastor Rod Parsley of the World Harvest Church of Columbus, Ohio at a critical time in his campaign in February, when former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was continuing to draw substantial support from the Christian right..... [Parsley] who describes Islam as "anti-Christ" and Mohammed as "the mouthpiece of a conspiracy of spiritual evil."

Why Qatar is emerging as Middle East peacemaker....

Blanford in CSM, here

"....Qatar is in the unusual position of having a foot in both camps. It remains a key ally of Washington, hosting the Al-Udeid Air Base, the largest US military facility in the region. It enjoys economic ties to Israel, and Israeli officials often participate in meetings and conferences in Doha. Yet Qatar also is Syria's closest Arab friend, investing millions of dollars in major property development projects and providing diplomatic support..."

West backs Lebanon government "capitulation" to Hezbollah ...

No, Mr. Shamir "Members of the Shi'ite organization will account for one-third of the government ministers, plus an additional portfolio"... that is not true. The Opposition as a whole (including Gen. Michel Aoun's, a Christian, bloc and others ....) will have 1/3+1 of the seats in the Council of Ministers! .........In Haaretz, here

"....One potential stumbling block over the final wording of the statement centers around the issue of whether to include references to prior Security Council resolutions passed in relation to Lebanon in recent years, including Resolution 1701, which brought an end to the Second Lebanon War.
Another Security Council resolution that is to be mulled is 1559, which includes a clause stipulating the decommissioning of weapons belonging to the various militia forces in the country. The U.S. and France insist on including mention of the resolution in the statement. Libya has stated its opposition, while Russia has also expressed reservations......"

Administration “violated” a law requiring notification to intel-committees when it took 8 months to inform the about alleged Syrian nuclear reactor..

CQ via War&Piece, here

“Just hours before a highly-orchestrated public roll-out of the previously classified intelligence, the president finally sent briefers to the committee,” the panel report states. “The delay was inexcusable and violated the National Security Act of 1947, which requires that the executive branch keep Congress ‘fully and currently informed’ of all intelligence activities..."

Is WINEP preparing Americans for an attack on IRAN?

WINEP's Clawson & Eisenstadt in an interview with Haaretz, here

(*) ...... Shihab missiles are not considered particularly reliable. Iran deploys them without having done hardly any significant tests. Second, the Shihab's guidance system is not very accurate....

(*).......no guarantee that Hezbollah will react automatically.....

(*)....... its reactions in the past to attacks against it, or its important interests, is mixed.......Not only did Iran not respond, but also the incident hastened its decision to agree to a cease-fire ...

(*)........what would be deemed a success? If the attack does destroy the nuclear facilities, and it leads to a broad consensus in Iran that nuclear weapons are dangerous........

Syria-Israel: No indication of joint work on a secret nuclear facility destroyed by Israel

In Secrecy News, here

"...but even in retrospect the available record presents no indication of joint work on a secret nuclear facility destroyed by Israel ..."

In other words, assuming the allegations of clandestine nuclear cooperation are true, open source intelligence provided no clues concerning the activity..."

WINEP: "Washington should reevaluate it support of the Lebanese government: Forget the Army for now!...

'Forget the Army' (he says in a 180 degrees reversal of his last essay: "With so much at stake, now is the time for Washington to use whatever leverage it might have to encourage the LAF to fulfill its national responsibility to protect Lebanese institutions"- May 9)..... and Schenker today, at WINEP, here

"....For Washington, these developments should prompt a reevaluation of how it supports the Lebanese government. Since 2005, the administration's strategy to strengthen Beirut has been primarily to support the LAF: from 2005 to 2008, .....more than $250 million in military assistance to the army..... However, during the crisis, the LAF did nothing to protect the government and national institutions because of the fear that intervention would cause the army to fragment along sectarian lines. Support for the LAF is a long-term project, but will do little in the short run to help U.S. allies in Beirut.

Given the stakes, it is imperative that Washington move beyond rhetoric and develop effective measures to support its pro-Western allies. Particularly important will be ways to enhance the electoral prospects of Siniora and his political allies in advance of the 2009 parliamentary vote. In the meantime, Washington should continue to work with the Lebanese government, avoiding contact with Hizballah ministers -- but working with lower level ministry officials -- as it did in 2005-2006..."

US must tolerate outreach to Hezbollah, Syria

ANNE GEARAN, AP Diplomatic Write, here and Laura Rosen's "Syriana (II): Newly Announced Israel-Syria Peace Talks Run Against Grain of Washington's Anti-Engagement Policy" in MoJo here

Israel-Syria peace deal could threaten Iran, Hezbollah

Paul Salem (as usual) has his apples and oranges a bit mixed .... it reminds me of that joke an 'influential' Arab ambassador in Washington told me about "consultants", the likes of our dear friend Paul ....and it reminds me of a meeting between A VERY influential head of a region's "Mukhabarat", with a former Agency guy, when the first coyly told the former Agency guy that "there are certain people (wink) in town who wants us to overly slip Tehran's way, a a bit too much for my taste." The Mukhabarati guy was sincere, but the Agency guy read a bit too much into it, as a storm was packing force. These were the good old days between that apparatus & the Agency, when for no sound reasons, the Washington nomenklatura decided to 'terminate' that relationship and go into an anomalous crescendo................. anyhow, the story, in McClatchy's, here

".....Salem, who recently spent time in Damascus talking to negotiators involved in the talks, said there is a growing unease among some Syrian leaders about the influence of Iran in the Middle East.

"Peace between Syria and Israel would cause a serious rupture in the Syrian-Iranian relationship as it would represent a fundamental parting of the ways," said Salem."

In a 'shift', US Delays Report on Iran Arms....

In the Wall Street Journal, here, via War&Piece.

The military had initially planned to publicize the report several weeks ago but instead turned the dossier over to the Iraqi government .....(Talbani "dismisses" US allegations, here)

"The timing of the brief...on Iranian interference has yet to be nailed down, but we anticipate briefing sometime in the future," said Rear Adm. Patrick Driscoll. Adm. Driscoll said there were "lots of reasons" for the delay but declined further comment.......

Another military official said in an interview that the report could be delayed significantly, noting that it was "in the hands of the [Iraqi central government]."

An agreement stops the fighting in Lebanon but boosts the Opposition & Hizbullah

In the ECONOMIST, here

“Today we have no victor, no vanquished, but one winner, which is Lebanon,” declared Marwan Hammadeh, a cabinet minister loyal to the pro-Western majority coalition in parliament known as “March 14th”, which embraces the dominant Sunni and Druze parties as well as liberals and right-wing Christians. Yet it appeared that most of the gains had been made by the opposition, an alliance led by Hizbullah, the Shia party-cum-militia, but also including a powerful Christian party and pro-Syrian leftists. This reflects changed realities on the ground, following the swift but brief take-over on May 9th of loyalist districts in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, by opposition gunmen. It was this dramatic event that had prompted urgent intervention by Arab foreign ministers...."

... and the LOSERS are?

Syria and Israel: tactical advantage

Jon Alterman (CSIS) writes this for MESH, here

"....While each side has powerful reasons to negotiate, however, there are equally powerful reasons not to conclude a deal. Such reasons start with the political weakness of each leader, who would be hard pressed to make monumental concessions to a longstanding enemy whose ultimate intentions are disputed. The Bush Administration’s keen disinterest in engaging Syria also dims hopes, as one of the prizes the Syrians seek is U.S. acceptance. A year from now, with a new U.S. president and likely a new Israeli Prime Minister, the situation might be different, and in the interim, there are certainly common understandings that can be reached..."

....Israel-Syria confirm peace talks

In the BBC here

Laura Rosen adds, "Two former Israeli foreign ministry officials explained the logic of such talks to me. "It’s a fair question, and other former Israeli officials are pressing further, arguing that Israel should pursue peace with Syria, its last bordering state with which it does not have a peace agreement. Among officials urging Washington to back diplomacy with Syria are former Israeli foreign ministry and intelligence official David Kimche and former Israeli foreign ministry director-general Alon Liel, who had been pursuing a track-two dialogue mediated by Turkey until Washington pressured the Israeli government to cut off the channel. 'One of the reasons that I believe we should explore the possibility of speaking with Syria on an official level is that this body needs oxygen,' Liel told me in February in Washington. 'We need a real process, and the Syrians are open to do it.'”

Lebanese Agree ...

Al Jazeera/English, here ......Our take: Bahij Tabbarah for Premiership? Aoun: Abou Jamra, Pakradounian, Skaff, Arslan & Bassil? Hariri bloc will have to do with old (Fatfat & co...) and bring in new blood, as for Jumblatt, he will have to away with Hamadeh... as for President Suleiman: Nazem El Khoury, Michel Murr ...? We hear that Suleiman Frangieh wishes to stay out of the NUG, and relinquishes as such his share to Gen. Aoun.

Colonel Lang has this 'epitaph':

"Another day of joy (irony alert) for the likes of Friedman, Brooks and Rice. What was it Brooks wrote last week? "What possible coalition could Hizbullah participate in in Lebanon?" (paraphrase)

The funny thing is that we Americans and Saudis pushed the Lebanese so hard and so obviously that they finally had no choice but to make a deal (always a thing the Lebanese can do).

I am going on a road trip or the next two days but I wanted to throw this ball up in the air for you all to play with in my absence. pl

ps. Syria and Israel are going to make another "day of joy" for the Flatlanders. Do you all remember them among the minor and oft forgotten peoples whom Gulliver visited?" pl

Doha: Solution in sight? Stay tuned Wednesday May 21 at 10:00AM Doha time

مراسل الجزيرة: علي حسن خليل النائب بالبرلمان ومساعد لرئيس البرلمان اللبناني يعلن الاقتراب من حل للأزمة اللبنانية في محادثات الدوحة

Iran Proposal for "constructive negotiations"...

Via War&Piece, here (in English) and Nukes& Spooks has this on Secretary Gates' testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee, and comments by Senator Spector, here

"I've had an opportunity to talk to the president about it directly. And I believe he needs to hear more from people like you than from people like me, but from both of us, and that it's not appeasement, and that the analogy to Neville Chamberlain is wrong. And we've got one government to deal with there (Iran)," Specter continued. "I've had a chance to talk to the last three Iranian ambassadors to the U.N. And I think there is an opportunity for dialogue. But I think we have to be a little courageous about it and take a chance, because the alternatives are very, very, very bleak."

Siniora's Adviser: "The Armenians want "rights" in Lebanon.. while they have only crumbs in Armenia"

Political eunuch, DOCTOR Radwan Al Sayyed (on Wardeh's Voice of Lebanon Radio Program), Fuad Siniora's senior adviser (for?) lambasted Lebanese-Armenians for asking for a fair share of the Lebanese polity ... while he described Michel Aoun's 'presence' as made of political "remains"..... having gone through the whole roster of Opposition figure, Hezbollah, Frangieh ..... via Hafez Al Assad...

لفت مستشار رئيس الحكومة فؤاد السنيورة، رضوان السيد ان هذه هي المحاولة الثالثة التي تطرح في مؤتمر الدوحة، وكلما وافق أحد على صيغة يرفضها الآخر، مشيرا انه لا يظن ان هذه المحاولة ستنجح لان المعارضة لديها خطة بعدم انتخاب رئيس للجمهورية.
السيد وفي حديث الى "صوت لبنان"، اكد ان المطلوب من أجل إبقاء رئيس كتلة "التغيير والاصلاح" النائب العماد ميشال عون على قيد الحياة سياسيا يحتم ان لا ينتخب رئيس، ولو انتخب لكان سافر الى مالطا او الى اي بلد آخر. وشدد السيد انه لن يقبل بالمثالثة في بيروت بعد ان اخذت المعارضة تقسيماتها الطائفية المناسبة في مناطقها، فهي اليوم تريد حصة لا تملكها في بيروت، مؤكدا الى انهم عندما يقولون بيروت للجميع، يشيرون بأنها ليست لسكانها. وسأل كيف يريد الارمني الذي لا يملك شيئا في ارمينيا، الثلث في بيروت، وأردف السيد انه لم يعد يفهم شيئا، ولا يظن ان "حزب الله" يريد ان يتحول الى حام للأقليات العرقية والدينية.

Fouad Siniora — "once a poster boy for Mr. Bush" ...was the recipient of very little real help

In the NYTimes, here

"Disappearing act: White House denial makes Jerusalem Post vanish"

Laura Rosen, in MoJo, here

"....There was an article on the Jerusalem Post website this morning titled "'Bush intends to attack Iran before the end of his term'" which was widely circulated on various listservs; the White House issued a denial of the story -- interestingly, the Jerusalem Post, rather than simply run a follow-up piece reporting the White House's denial, or expanding the existing article, seems to have outright replaced the original piece with a new one: the link for the original piece (www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1210668683139&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull) now yields the new, substitute piece with the title "White House denies Iran attack report". Where is the original piece? I can't find it online anywhere else in its original form, though I do have a copy in my e-mail ..."

White House on Tuesday "flatly denies" an Israel Army Radio report that claimed Bush intends to attack Iran...

In the Jerusalem Post, here

Christians marginalised in Lebanon crisis

In Reuters, here

Qataris 'extend' Lebanon talks and submit two proposals

Talks 'extended' for 24 hours and Hamad Bin Jassem submits to the opposing sides two 'proposals' (Aoun confirms that the Opposition DID NOT receive any proposal):

(Proposal A): National Unity Government: "Loyalists" retain 16 portfolios, while Opposition gets 'veto power' with 11, and President gets 3 portfolios.

Beirut electoral 'redistricting': District 1: 7 Seats... District 2: 7 seats ... DISTRICT 3: 5 SEATS!

(Proposal B:) National Unity Government (same as above)

Electoral Law to be ratified by Parliament as it stands today.... (A trick if you ask me..)

"...Virtually all of America's Middle-East problems are worsening as the administration prepares to leave office..."

CSIS's Jon Alterman, here

"It has become impossible to credibly argue that the Bush Administration’s Middle East policies have advanced the national interests of the United States. After shifting enormous resources toward addressing the problems of the region following the events of September 11, 2001, and after cautioning patience through the “birth pangs of democracy,” the results have become clear. On every issue that the administration has prioritized—promoting Arab-Israeli peace, liberating Lebanon from Syrian and Iranian influence, democratizing Egypt, stabilizing Iraq, and containing Iran—America’s foes have grown stronger and its allies have grown weaker. Even more troublingly, virtually all of these problems are worsening as the administration prepares to leave office..."

Lebanon: Economy on the Edge

In OBG, here

"Though the current rating of "B3" is the lowest rating possible for governments that are not in default, or at imminent risk of default, a Moody's official said Lebanon had shown an ability to overcome many difficulties.
"Given that the government of Lebanon is not in default, Moody's believes that the country's low ratings already encapsulate the risk of severe political turmoil," said Tristan Cooper, vice-president of Moody's Sovereign Risk Unit."
"So far, donor countries such as Saudi Arabia and the US have remained committed to maintaining their political and financial support for the Siniora government. However, this backing may come to the test if Hezbollah returns to the government, one of the conditions it is seeking to end its campaign of unrest."

"Special FUTURE Coordinator" Salim Diab 'Out'.... The rest are face saving measures ..

"and he made a statement to dispel the rumors about his demise. But the real word is that he is OUT! Just face saving measures. There is an internal reckoning among the cadres of Al Mustaqbal about where and how the money was spent.".... So says a well informed observer of all things "Beiruti"... Al Balad adds this to the fray: يقال ان زعيم تيار موال وجه صفعة الى احدى الشخصيات البيروتية التي كلفها بتنظيم تياره في بيروت.(البلد)

"

Diab heading a "seemingly" important meeting at Quraytem (look at map in front of him) on May 19, to coordinate his exit (across the street) and return to the commerce of bathroom appliances, where he was sorely missed!

Beirut remains the snag in the "New Electoral Law" deliberations in Doha

مراسل الجزيرة بن جدو: العقدة الحقيقية الان هي قانون الانتخاب وتحديداً بما يتعلق بتقسيم بيروت............ المفاوضات الان جدية وحثيثة وربما يتم الاتفاق على شيء ما الليلة وبشكل مفاجئ

The Saudis are scuttling all attempts to reach a compromise: The hope is that the United States will 'assist' its allies in Lebanon (and elsewhere in the Middle East) in the period that separates us from the ....'Guns of August' maybe?! At no time were the US stooges in Lebanon (and the Saudis to a lesser extent) more sure of a debilitating Iran strike!

Ramon: Israel's government holding talks with Hamas

In Haaretz, here

".....Ramon, speaking at a Kadima faction meeting, criticized Israel's negotiations with the militants group and voiced hope that the cabinet would soon make a strategic decision not to accept the Hamas presence along Israel's southern border......

Ramon's comments marked that first time a minister in the Knesset has confirmed that Israel was holding direct talks with Hamas...."

This Administration's few successes have come when it's agreed to engage with adversaries

Fareed Zakaria, in Newsweek, here

"....Hizbullah is not like Al Qaeda, a rootless organization that engages solely in existential terrorism. It's a homegrown group with deep roots in Lebanon's Shia community .....

The foundation of Hizbullah's strength is not just its rockets but the support it can command from 1 million Lebanese Shiites. That's why dealing with the group as a military problem is counterproductive......

Perhaps Gates noticed ..........................."