Syria: "Obama will have to be convinced that the benefits will outweigh the serious risks of regional chaos that he perceives"

'The twin focuses of current US policy – East Asia and Syria – remain the dominant themes. On Syria, the debate between foreign policy experts continues to sharpen, with those in favor of greater US engagement having the louder public voice. At the White House, however, President Obama is still setting a cautious tone, reinforced by the emerging instability in Libya. This underlies the agreement reached by Secretary of State Kerry and his Russian counterpart to hold a diplomatic conference on the way forward in Syria. There is little expectation in official circles that this conference – assuming that it takes place – will deliver a stable solution, especially in light of Moscow apparent intention recognition to ship S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria. For the White House, however, the portent of the talks is to gain time for non-military based actions. To ward off its critics, the State Department has released a substantial factsheet on its involvement in Syria. As we have been reporting, the trend in Washington remains in the direction of deeper intervention, but for this to happen Obama will have to be convinced that the benefits will outweigh the serious risks of regional chaos that he perceives...'