Tuesday, January 3, 2012

"Arab states are fighting two wars. One is over the nature of future power in their capitals & the other is over which regional axis they will support".

"... Washington will most likely confront urgent Arab and Syrian opposition requests for direct involvement in Syria. Already, Ghalioun has called on the Security Council to adopt the Arab initiative; at the same time some Arab and Syrian opposition leaders have vocally called for a no-fly zone and NATO involvement to protect civilians.
But a word of caution. The danger of this kind of involvement lies in the grave and complex reality that Iran still considers the security of the Syrian regime as part of its own security, and that, while both Tehran and Damascus have been preparing for a conflict with United States since its invasion of Iraq in 2003, including supporting proxy forces in the region, Washington has thus far pursued policies more reactive in nature to regional developments. Washington should be careful about falling into the duplicitous trap of Middle Eastern politics.
Washington must act within the context that Syria is already in the throes of civil strife, which can only intensify and possibly spill over into Lebanon or Iraq, and that the Arab states are fighting two wars. One is over the nature of future power in their capitals and the other is over which regional axis they will support.
Washington should also disabuse itself of the notion that the terminally ill Syrian regime will collapse soon. The regime has life support from Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, and thrives on terror and Arab schisms. This makes any reactive or reflexive American involvement in Syria fraught with uncertainties and serious risks.
Washington's policies should focus now on expanding and organizing its cooperation with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which have deep interest in a change of power in Damascus; supporting the Free Syrian Army through Saudi Arabia and Turkey; strengthening sanctions against Syria in concert with regional and international allies, including placing sanctions on Sunni merchants closely associated with the regime.; maintaining and supporting a strong diplomatic presence in Iraq and Lebanon; seeking out Alawi and Christian political and military figures with the objective of reassuring them with the promise of political inclusion in the future of Syria.
Most importantly, Washington should not lead a campaign in Syria designed in the imperial corridors of the American capital itself."

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