Wikileaks: US, UK, French & UN envoys: "A weak Lebanese Presidency is good for Lebanon"

¶1. (C/NF) Over a 10/25 dinner hosted by the British
Ambassador in honor of visiting UK Middle East envoy Michael
Williams, the French Charge, UN Special Coordinator, UK
Ambassador, Williams, and Ambassador Feltman all agreed: LAF
Commander Michael Sleiman is the top choice of Syria and
Hizballah for the presidency. Beyond that, differences
emerged among the dinner participants regarding the
presidency... The participants also
agreed that the pro-Syrians in Lebanon as well as General
Aoun like the idea of postponing presidential elections until
the March 14 majority no longer exists. On another topic,
all the dinner guests agreed that UNIIIC Brammertz' reports
have been a disappointment, with Brammertz' next report
likely to be another chronicle of UNIIIC internal actions
aimed at disguising rather than revealing investigative
results...
¶2. (C/NF) On the occasion of the two-day visit to Lebanon
of UK Middle East envoy Michael Williams, UK Ambassador
Frances Guy hosted a small working dinner attended by French
Charge d'Affaires Andre Parant, UN Special Coordinator for
Lebanon Geir Pedersen, and Ambassador Feltman. The focus of
the dinner discussion was on the presidency. Asked what his
message was for the Lebanese, Williams responded that he is
urging that a "consensus president" be identified within the
constitutional schedule. The other guests all cautioned
Williams that the benevolent-sounding word "consensus" has
become a buzzword for a Hizballah/Syria veto over the
presidency...
¶3. (C/NF) All participants agreed that the international
community had to be prepared to support any president who
receives more than half of the parliamentary vote, while
hoping that as many MPs can rally behind a single candidate
as possible. Debating the merits of a "half-plus-plus"
approach, all agreed as well that the president elected may
not reach the two-thirds votes or attendance insisted upon by
Parliament Speaker Berri...
... ... What's really so wrong with that, Pedersen
argued. Any of the seven would be preferable to Emile
Lahoud, and some -- like the notoriously corrupt Bouez -- are
"not serious" candidates...
¶6. (C/NF) The dinner participants agreed, with the UK and
French participants quoting reporting from their Damascus
counterparts, that Syria's current top choice seems to be LAF
Commander Michel Sleiman. So much of the political puzzle
falls easily in place when Sleiman is viewed as Syria's
candidate. There was a considerable debate about "how
Syrian" is Michel Sleiman, with the consensus being that he
is not a subsidiary of Syria in the same fashion of Lahoud.
The Beirut-based dinner participants agreed that Sleiman's
problem is that he is weak and malleable, subject in
particular to pressures from Hizballah. He's "a relatively
safe choice" for Hizballah, Parant noted...
shouldn't worry" about a Sleiman presidency, that even a weak
presidency starts Lebanon on the road to political recovery....
¶9. (C/NF) The discussion on the possibility of Emile Lahoud
staying in Baabda Palace beyond his midnight November 23 term
expiration was relatively brief. All participants agreed
that many parties in Lebanon and beyond are quite comfortable
with finding a way to extend the status quo until the time
that the March 14 majority ceases to exist. At that point,
it becomes easier, they agreed, for the pro-Syrians to
install the president and prime minister of their choice. If
Michel Sleiman does not become president now, then the
extended status quo option becomes more likely. Pedersen
noted that even some March 14 leaders may like the additional
time, in the hopes that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon
"starts to show some teeth." General Aoun certainly likes
the idea, Pedersen said, describing his meeting with Aoun
earlier that day..."