Winners and Losers in a New Middle East

"... The regional security framework — with new roles for Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, Syria, Israel, and the likely Palestinian state (or states) — is evolving, and Washington must reexamine how it defends its regional interests in a new way.

After a long dormancy, Egypt is reemerging as a regional leader, reaching out more deliberately to all states, including its erstwhile rivals Iran and Syria.... Egypt’s new foreign policy approach will more closely reflect the long-ignored sympathies and preferences of the populace.... Cairo’s support for the recently brokered unity agreement between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas reflects Egypt’s new orientation on the Palestinian issue. It entails some distancing from Israel’s policy on Gaza and on Hamas, which not only controls Gaza but also retains significant support in the West Bank. A more flexible Egyptian line on Hezbollah is also in the cards. Initially, these changes will generate additional tension between Israel and Egypt. But there will not be a renunciation of the Egyptian-Israeli peace accord; and ultimately the new relationship will be in Israel’s as well as Egypt’s long-term interests.

Kuwait, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia appear to be managing the new stresses created by popular movements reasonably well, though excessive rigidity and caution may redound to the detriment of the Saudi ruling family. Protests in Saudi Arabia are so far low-key. But the Saudis will ignore at their peril the winds of change sweeping the region. More government grants and subsidies will not satisfy the appetite of average citizens for increased political participation... (Continue, here)