"Nayef has tracked Shia' dissidents in Lebanon, ... We backed those crackdown with enthusiasm"
"... By intervening forcefully in Bahrain, the Saudis have now more or less taken control of the island’s future... they are the power behind the throne. This sends a clear signal to the two Shia powers in the gulf, Iran and Iraq, not to interfere in the business of the peninsula. It also sent a clear signal to Obama not to support reform in the Kingdom’s backyard....
For Nayef and other Saudi hard liners, demands for clipping the power of the secret police, the mukhabarat, in Arab states are direct threats to their authority. From the MOI’s inverted pyramid headquarters in Riyadh, Nayef has tracked down al-Qaeda and its sympathizers with a ruthless zeal. He has done the same to Iranian backed Shia dissidents in Lebanon’s Hezbollah. We backed those crackdowns with enthusiasm. Now it appears he is increasingly calling the shots in Riyadh.... The Saudi leadership also believes they have seen this American movie before. Jimmy Carter threw the Shah under the bus in 1978 and we got the Islamic Republic of Iran. George Bush toppled Saddam in 2003 and we got a Shia government in Iraq. The princes think America is naïve at best, untrustworthy at worst. So they are circling the wagons and telling their fellow monarchs in the Gulf and King Abdallah in Jordan to do the same..."
2 comments:
These are typical rearguard battles that will not change the future landscape of the Arab world. At least there is one thing one may agree with the princes: the US is either naive or untrustworthy. It is possible to add may be both!!!
Senior Member,
Could you explain what you mean by "typical rearguard battles" in this context? To me, this is more than just jockeying for power after the death of Abdullah. It also has a serious strategic element. Even if Nayef sees it just as jockeying for power (I have no idea what he sees), the impact on the region seems likely to be serious: when Saudi Arabia takes the initiative militarily to raise its influence at the expense of democrats and Iran, then it is exacerbating tensions, raising the risk of chaos, and challenging Tehran to take military countermoves.
Riyadh has made the Mideast even more unstable than it already was by this hardline shift. I would expect serious results (combat, deaths, revolutions, counterrevolutions) over the next year in result as all other players react to Riyadh by also becoming more radicalized.
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