C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 002474
SUBJECT:SHIA ANGER BUTTRESSING HIZBALLAH; INVASION WELCOMED
1. (C/NF) On July 26, Embassy contacts in the Shia community reported that Shia support for Hizballah was strong, as was anger at the USG for supporting Israel. There was a general feeling that Hizballah must remain armed or "they" will pick off the Shia one by one. Morale inside Hizballah remains high as well. Our sources tell us that Hizballah officials welcomed the Israeli incursion into Maroun el-Ras and Bint Jbeil because it levels the playing field and because Israeli occupation provides a justification to keep fighting. Hizballah appears ready to keep fighting, especially if the fighting moves to a ground war in southern Lebanon...
2. (C/NF) On July 26, the Embassy's contacts in the Shia community reported continued strong support for Hizballah, and fury at the USG for its support for Israel. Riad al-Asad, a moderate Shia politician who had run against the Amal-Hizballah alliance in the 2005 parliamentary elections, reacted angrily to polstaff's call. His colorful reply, after uncharacteristic profanities, was, "Everyone i粑 for Hizballah now!" 3. (C/NF) Moderate Shia intellectual Ibrahim Shamseddine was more cordial, but delivered the same message. Hizballah has more supporters and sympathizers in the Shia community than ever, he said. There is a growing conviction in the Shia community that if Hizballah were to disarm, "they" would pick us Shia off one by one. USG calls for a "New Middle East" have added to the anxiety of the Shia community, fearing the USG may target them next, according to Shamseddine. He added that most Shia believe that the USG is refusing to stop the war, so they are rallying to Hizballah. 4. (C/NF) Shia journalist Abbas Sabbagh told us that Shia support for Hizballah is still strong. He reported that Hizballah officials remain self-confident despite the Israeli attacks. They are enthusiastic about how Hizballah has been able to keep up its rocket attacks on northern Israel. Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's recent televised speech was designed to encourage his Shia constituency and to hold them together, according to Sabbagh.
5. (C/NF) Sabbagh, who regularly interacts with Hizballah officials, assessed that Hizballah's strategy was to keep fighting since the party has nothing to lose anymore. Israel has already devastated the areas where Shia live. He said that Hizballah is "not unhappy" with the IDF ground incursion into Maroun el-Ras and Bint Jbeil because it provides Hizballah a pretext to keep fighting, this time to liberate Lebanese land. 6. (C/NF) Separately, former UNIFIL spokesman Timur Goksel told econoff that he saw the Israeli ground incursion as exactly what Hizballah wanted. Goksel's contacts in Hizballah told him that they hope "Israel stays awhile." Hizballah officials told Goksel that only 17 Hizballah fighters had delayed the Israeli advance on Maroun el-Ras and exacted a heavy price on the IDF. (Seven of those 17 were killed in the fighting, according to the same officials.) Hizballah officials also told Goksel that Hizballah has lost only 30 fighters in the two weeks of war so far. Hizballah officials were further encouraged, according to Goksel, because the heavy fighting that bloodied Israeli forces in Maroun el-Ras and Bint Jbeil was carried out by local Hizballah militiamen, not their elite "Special Forces." According to Goksel, Hizballah is holding back its best fighters in the event of a larger Israeli invasion. 7. (C/NF) Hizballah welcomes ground fighting not only because it levels the playing field, according to Goksel. It also distracts from Hizballah's anxiety over the aftereffects of the war. Many Hizballah officials are worried that, although morale within Hizballah's military wing remains high, they will have to justify to their constituents the suffering caused by the war. An invasion would provide a convenient distraction and a ready justification to continue fighting."
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