Monday, March 21, 2011

Military coup in Yemen?

"The First Armored Division of the Yemeni Army declared this morning that it is taking the side of the protestors in Sanna. It was joined an hour later by another division and then more units. I believe the the two commanders of the defected divisions belong to the Bakil tribeThe elders of the tribe declared a week ago that they are taking the side of the protestors. Both are Northern.  There are many questions now about the impact on al- Qaida organization particularly in the South. It is unlikely at this juncture that the voices for secession will rise at least for now. In all this mess, there is a good opportunity that an inclusive equation will emerge. It will be a very tough call but it is worth every bit of effort. Looking at the situation I believe that we are heading for a long period of a very messy process in Yemen though one can only hope it will end with a stable Yemen. What happens in Yemen will have a very loud echo in the Arabian Peninsula. The role of Saudi Arabia will be crucial.  This necessitates an immediate dialogue between Washington and Riyad.  If left on their own, the Saudis will turn to be part of the problems we are about to see not part of the solution."   Yusuf al-Misry

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