"What we won by the sword we will keep by the sword!"

"... The real test of American commitment to democracy is long-time ally Saudi Arabia. U.S. and Saudi Arabian troops conducted a joint military training exercise in early March. Riyadh acts as the critical “swing” oil producer, upon which Washington long has relied to stabilize the international oil market. Saudi Arabia also is a major arms buyer. Perhaps most important, the Saudi royals have spread their wealth around Washington, collecting many influential friends.

Unfortunately, Riyadh also is essentially a totalitarian theocracy. A handful of feeble gerontocrats rule and 7,000 princes mulct a nation of 27 million. There are no elections or civil liberties ... The Saudi government underwrites fundamentalist Islam around the world and Saudi citizens have provided substantial financial support for terrorism. Yet U.S. officials say little to encourage the Saudi royals to adopt democratic reforms. Not that the well-heeled princes are interested in American political values. “They’re not in a mode for listening,” one administration official recently told the New York Times. The regime in Riyadh always has used whatever force was necessary for self-preservation. Now Saudi Arabia has adopted Washington’s strategy of imposing its values abroad, moving troops into neighboring Bahrain. Riyadh intends to stifle Bahrain’s growing democracy movement and preserve the Khalifa family dictatorship.

 

What should Washington do?...  Riyadh was horrified by the eruption of democracy protests in the Middle East. New information technologies make it impossible for the royals to hide pervasive corruption, mismanagement, and poverty from their citizens. But the regime, buttressed by the army and a well-armed National Guard, has avoided mass demonstrations.... Riyadh offered asylum to Tunisia’s President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and support for Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak. The Saudis were particularly upset that the Obama administration did not back Mubarak, as if Washington could have saved the geriatric dictator. Now the Saudis are directly meddling in neighbor Bahrain.... Resentment against the foreign forces is likely to intensify. “People are preparing themselves and we are ready to fight back if any attacks come,” one student activist told the Wall Street Journal. If Saudi or UAE forces end up gunning down Bahraini protestors, the anger may become unquenchable. Riyadh’s “occupation” is likely to undermine and could even destroy the Bahraini monarchy. This radicalization of people who originally wanted reform could spread elsewhere in the Gulf. Indeed, the Saudis risk playing into Iran’s hands. Riyadh blames Iran for promoting Shia unrest, but Afshin Molavi of the Woodrow Wilson Center reported that “Iran is not the driving force in these actions.” Unfortunately, Saudi meddling will push protestors across the spectrum toward Tehran. Warned Jasim Husain, “For the Saudis to be here is a challenge to the Iranians. It is something we want to avoid.” Riyadh has given Iran an excuse to turn Bahrain and other Gulf states into an international battleground.

Riyadh’s action also risks roiling Iraqi politics. Anti-American Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr has called for protests against the Saudi move. Even Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani, the most revered Shia cleric who normally avoids politics, criticized the Bahrain government’s crackdown. The Saudi move threatens even greater polarization between Sunni and Shia throughout the region. Yet the Obama administration has muted its reaction.... Washington has no good policy options. So far the Saud monarchy looks resilient, but the U.S.-Saudi relationship is under strain. One unnamed administration official observed: “They’ve taken it [the failure to support Mubarak] personally because they question what we’d do if they are next.” What would “we” do?

The biggest challenge facing the Saudi royals is internal, namely their lack of legitimacy. They can be expected to respond to future threats with no less brutality than that deployed by the Iranian regime against its opponents. Explained Saudi Interior Minister Nayef bin Abdul-Aziz, effectively second in line to the throne: “What we won by the sword we will keep by the sword.” If the regime is challenged, it undoubtedly would expect Washington’s support. And many Washington interests would advocate such a course. However, the administration could hardly endorse a regime which violates most every principle for which the U.S. stands. There’s not even a reform fig leaf for Washington to hide behind. Riyadh’s intervention in Bahrain raises the stakes. The Pentagon has authorized the removal of military dependents and non-essential civilians from its Bahraini base, suggesting some doubt about the future of Khalifa family rule. If the latter survives only with the assistance of Saudi bayonets, Riyadh will have committed a form of aggression. What then of the West’s devotion to liberal international norms?

Through all this Iran looms ominously in the background. The Bush administration’s foolish invasion of Iraq eliminated one of the most important constraints on Tehran. Saudi Arabia has now handed Shiite Iran a powerful recruiting tool. This potential disaster suggests the imperative of nuanced disengagement. The U.S. government should stop trying to constantly and publicly micromanage Middle Eastern developments; advice is best given sparingly and in private. Moreover, the administration should drop the well-publicized pretense of a warm friendship between Washington and Riyadh. Cooperation on shared interests will remain important. However, U.S. officials need to put distance between America and the Saudi regime. Especially now that the latter is aggressively imposing its system on its much smaller neighbor..."