Monday, February 7, 2011

"..People no longer believe America will reach out and protect its allies here. They're no longer afraid .."

"..."I believe what we're seeing now is the rise of the Shia. And not just politically but also economically, socially, and culturally," Atrissi says.
Atrissi says the shift mirrors the regional rise of the so-called "resistance alliance" between Iran, Syria and non-state actors such as Hezbollah and Hamas. At the same time, he says, U.S. influence, and that of its Sunni allies in Lebanon, is on the wane.
"The Sunnis chose to be with the pro-American alliance, the so-called 'moderate Arabs.' And now we see that alliance disintegrating," Atrissi says. "People no longer believe America will reach out and protect its allies here. They're no longer afraid."
On the other hand, a number of analysts say Sunnis and Christians do feel diminished in Lebanon these days. But it would be a stretch to claim that Lebanon now has a "Hezbollah-led government," as some Western commentators have done.
"If you are eluding here to some people's thoughts that Hezbollah might be working toward an actual political takeover here, I think that would be very far-fetched," says analyst Judith Palmer Harik, author of a book and many scholarly articles on Hezbollah.
Analysts say that as the most powerful military force in the country, Hezbollah has no need for overt political control. In fact, they say Hezbollah would be of less use to Syria and Iran as a governing body than it is as a militia operating with impunity. ..."

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