"... Obama’s instincts are 'constrained' by Clinton, Israel & the Saudis ..."

"The dilemmas facing US policy-makers in the Middle East have sharpened. Even as President Obama is seeking to concentrate on budgetary issues in the face of a potential March 4th government shutdown if, as appears probable, no new appropriations mechanism is agreed, events on the ground are forcing his hand. His calls for restraint in Bahrain bring into sharp focus the conflicting US interests between supporting political reform and not destabilizing long-time US allies. The US remains supportive of the democratizing power of the Internet and new media while at the same time concerned at the revolutionary implications. The US veto of a draft UN resolution critical of Israeli settlement policy has also caused much internal debate within foreign policy circles. White House officials tell us privately that Obama’s instincts are to be more openly supportive of the demonstrators on the street, especially in Libya and Iran, and to take a harder line with Israel. He is, however, being constrained by the caution of his top advisers, most notably Secretary of State Clinton, and inputs from Saudi Arabia. Against this background, it can be expected that US policy in the Middle East will continue to face an awkward learning curve. As one senior National Security Official commented to us: “We need to have things both ways.” Military-to-military ties – which proved decisive at the height of the Egyptian crisis – will remain crucial. These are in play as the US tries to defuse a simmering conflict with Pakistan. The politics of US foreign policy are also in flux. Public support of the war in Afghanistan is flagging and at a recent conservative convention in Washington DC, there was open support for an isolationist approach, something of a recurrent phenomenon in American politics and especially associated with difficult economic times.  A number of the new Republican intake into the House of Representatives, including those influenced by the Tea Party, seem willing to look at defense reductions. To date these have been fairly trivial in proportion to the size of the total defense budget, but more are likely to be on the way. Foreign aid and State Department spending face especially hostile scrutiny. Overall, the civilian resources available for the US international role are likely to decline, potentially"