"...How Egypt transforms itself remains to be seen, as it will surely experience bumps, diversions and regressions on the road from military-backed authoritarianism to civilian-based democracy. We’re likely to see a free and broadly democratic Egypt develop that elusive prize denied Arabs for the past century: a stable, self-defined governance system, credible and legitimate because it is based on fair representation and real accountability.
Axiomatically, democratic governance in Egypt at the heart of the Arab world must reflect the four principal value systems and social configurations that define the Arab world to various degrees: Arabism, Islamism, tribalism and cosmopolitanism. Such a system that faithfully reflects public opinion is likely to trigger changes in policies around the region and the world.
Several clear implications can be identified as this process starts, related to the principal actors with whom Egypt interacts across the Middle East: the Arab countries, Iran, Israel, Turkey, the United States and Europe. A democratic Egyptian government that reflects public opinion will support democratic transformations and more accountable governance throughout the region. Egypt first gave the Arabs a sense of their collective Arabism in the 1950s and 1960s, and is likely to regain a regional role as the spearhead of a new pan-Arab identity anchored in genuine self-determination and a collective commitment to democratic governance that is deeply desired across the region. Critical will be the role played by institutions that Egypt pioneered nearly a century ago – including a free press, an independent judiciary, credible constitutionalism, and dynamic institutions of civil society, human rights activism, lawyers and other professional associations.
The peace treaty with Israel will remain intact because war is not desirable for either country. Yet the current Egyptian-Israeli cold peace will be radically rebalanced. Widespread indignity felt by Egyptians who see themselves as the jailers of Gaza on behalf of Israel and Washington will give way to a realistic policy by which Egyptians will push the latter to adopt a more law-abiding stance toward the Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. Just as the U.S. maintains peaceful ties with Russia and China, but needles them about human rights and other issues, so Egypt will keep peace with Israel, but raise the temperature on issues of profound concern to Arabs.
The Palestine issue remains a principal lens through which most ordinary Arabs view relations with Israel and the U.S., and Egypt’s regaining a leading regional role will reflect this in its relations with Israel. The hope is that Israelis would put away frenzy and zealotry and understand the profound significance of a democratic Egypt...
Egypt’s influence in Iran will be complex, even contradictory. Egyptian and Arab popular sentiment at once admires Iranian defiance of the U.S., Israel and the West that tries to limit Iran’s nuclear technology capabilities. But Egyptians do not want to emulate the heavy-handed Iranian governance system dominated by authoritarian theocrats. Democratic Arabs will support Iran’s resistance against Western threats, sanctions and double standards, as well as the desire by many Iranians to achieve democracy....
The U.S. and Europe will react to all this in bewilderment at first, as has been the case in recent weeks. Both are unsure about how to navigate the transition to the ultimate end of colonialism underway, and remain confused about how to deal with self-confident Arabs and defiant Muslims. Mass Arab resentment against Western support for Arab autocrats and Israeli colonizers has not surfaced yet in the current transformations, but it lurks below the surface. Arabs react to the policies of Western governments, not their rhetoric. Those policies, in the eyes of most Arabs, have lingered for decades somewhere between chronically unjust and criminally complicit..."
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