"... It is a nice theory, but we have probably made a pact with the devil, and the ink on this deal was the public apology made by Saad Hariri to the Assad regime for accusing it of being involved in his father’s killing. The power struggle between Syria and Hezbollah is localized and is unlikely to change the make-up of the wider regional alliance between Damascus and Tehran and their satellite proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas. In Lebanon, it remains to be seen, assuming Syria does tame Hezbollah and reasserts its influence over the party, just what it will demand of it in return. Hezbollah remains a vital bargaining chip in negotiations with the West and Israel, but it is unlikely that Syria will, or even can, disarm the Party of God. In any case, both have a vested interest in making the Special Tribunal go away.
So what are we left with? A Lebanon that is back in the Syrian fold, with Damascus likely to demand a say in who is appointed to key security posts and to continue to leverage Lebanon for its own regional agenda? More worrying is the prospect that, with its foot in the door, it will begin to surreptitiously dismantle the freedoms won at such a dear price in 2005. It was only six years ago that Syrian troops were billeted on Lebanese soil and Brigadier General Rustom Ghazaleh held court at his headquarters in Aanjar, premises that struck fear into all and from where many dissenting Lebanese were either tortured or made to disappear.
Are our memories really that short?"
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