"Lebanon's great balancing act"

Rami Khouri in the IHT:

"Much of the speculation about whether Lebanon might be plunged into renewed strife revolves around the impact of the anticipated indictments by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which was established by the United Nations to hold accountable the murderers of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and 22 other people who were killed in February 2005.

The investigation has generated enough evidence for the tribunal to say that it will hand down indictments in the coming months. Beyond that, most of what is said about the investigation and the indictments — and their consequences — is speculation.

The immediate concern for Lebanon stems from expectations that the tribunal will indict individuals who are associated with Hezbollah, whether active officials or “rogue elements.” The Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has dismissed the anticipated indictments as part of a plot to diminish his movement’s standing. Some of his concerns are reasonable, such as questioning whether the investigation is tainted because of its heavy reliance on analyzing cellphone patterns when several Lebanese telephone employees have been arrested as spies for Israel. He also questions the relevance and credibility of some Arabs interviewed by the investigators who have changed their stories.

But the bigger question is about the political dimensions of the process, not its technical proficiency. ......

When the international tribunal was established some five years ago, many observers suspected that the assassinations might have been ordered by Damascus or had been carried out by “rogue elements” in the Syrian security services. The evidence from the indictments will clarify such speculation, but for now all potential suspects — Syria, Hezbollah, Israel, militant Islamists, criminal gangs, or anyone else — should be assumed innocent until proven guilty.

The significant tension that prevails pits two powerful forces against each other, with potentially momentous consequences for Lebanon and the Arab world. ......

On the other hand, there is a strong desire to maintain the current economic boom, and to avoid the renewed strife that might emanate from the political impact of the indictments if they accuse Hezbollah or Syrian parties.

How to balance two worthy imperatives — justice and stability — is Lebanon’s great challenge today. A huge dilemma for the country is that most of the levers that will drive this process are in the hands of outsiders, including Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United States, Israel and the Security Council. Events in Lebanon, as always, mirror wider tensions and regional and global deal-making.

If the indictments mark the end of the investigation and the start of courtroom trials, the statements by Nasrallah and the Syrian-Saudi visit last week mark the start of the political negotiations that will set the parameters for the tribunal’s work. It will be difficult but not impossible to conclude a negotiated understanding that holds the killers accountable and sends a strong message to anyone contemplating political murder in the future, while also preserving the calm that now prevails in Lebanon

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