Utter dangerous ignorance: "the passing away of Fadlallah could spark strife in Lebanon, in which Hezbollah could attack Israel..."

Mideastwire:

"This piece by former US Ambassador to Israel Daniel Kurtzer is, unfortunately, yet another indication of the poverty of thought in Washington and the US in general when it comes to heading off another devastating war in Lebanon and Israel. It is also instructive of the danger of having high profile figures like Kurtzer comment on situations for which they are not specialists – indeed, Kurtzer’s short piece on US options for preventing the next war – for CFR no less – carries a number of basic errors in regards to Lebanon and Hizbullah that perhaps he would not have made if the piece was only directly related to his apparent specialist field of Egypt and Israel:

Fadlallah death likely starting point for war? The piece starts off with this incredible statement: “There are two plausible scenarios for war in Lebanon. First, Hezbollah could initiate hostilities. The recent passing of Lebanese Shia cleric Muhammad Hussein Fadl’Allah, a spiritual adviser to Hezbollah and a man with many enemies inside and outside Lebanon, could spark strife within Lebanon in which Hezbollah could decide to attack Israel as a means of unifying its supporters.” There is little explanation offered for what is a baffling FIRST statement of contingency. The scenario he draws here as a first order of business is something I have simply not heard discussed seriously or at all here in Beirut – such that I had to conclude perhaps Kurtzer was confusing Fadlallah with Mughniyeah? In any case, this sort of wild speculation at the beginning of what purports to be a serious treatment of a complex subject immediately calls into question what follows.

US Options are limited? One of the central shortcomings of the piece is illustrated in Kurtzer’s assertion that “The United States should work to avert another war in Lebanon, though its capacity to do so is limited… Preventive diplomacy is constrained because of the absence of relations between the United States and Iran and Hezbollah, and the poor state of relations between the United States and Syria.”

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