Stability in the Middle East: "Closely watched & terminally ill"

Lake in the Wash-Times/ here

"... the 82-year-old Egyptian leader is thought by most Western intelligence agencies to be dying from terminal cancer affecting his stomach and pancreas....

There are, however, other indications that Mr. Mubarak's health is failing. In March, the Egyptian leader traveled to Germany for what at the time was said to be gallbladder surgery, a treatment that took him out of action for six weeks, according to a special report on Egypt in the current issue of the Economist.

An intelligence officer from a Central European service told The Washington Times last week that his service estimates that the Egyptian president will be dead within a year, and before Cairo's scheduled presidential elections in September 2011.

Both the National Intelligence Council and the U.S. Central Commandhave tasked intelligence analysts to start gaming out scenarios after Mr. Mubarak's death and how his passing will affect the transition of power, according to three U.S. officials...... "People were mellow about the prospect of him being ill. Everyone understood the end was near; the estimates were 12 to 18 months," Mr. Cook said.....

State Department spokesman, P.J. Crowley has addressed questions about Mr. Mubarak's health in the daily briefings at Foggy Bottom. "No one is looking past Mubarak. He is still the president of Egypt, and we rely on him and his government .... " Mr. Crowley said in an interview. "He is still the president, and he still plays a vital role."......

Frank Wisner, a U.S. ambassador to Egypt between 1986 and 1991, said "I don't know who is going to succeed the president. I have no idea the exact formula that will be followed," Mr. Wisner said. "I assume the successor to the president of Egypt is someone we know. I don't know what his name is, but I know he will seek Egyptian stability and seek the friendship with the United States that has dominated Egypt's approach in the Mubarak era."....

Martin Kramer, a scholar at the Jerusalem-based Shalem Center and an analyst on Egypt, however, said that he predicted the peace deal between Israel and Egypt would outlast Mr. Mubarak's presidency.

"Egypt has kept the peace deal with Israel through the wars with Lebanon and through intifadas," Mr. Kramer said. "They sometimes pull the ambassador; they sometimes send him back. This is not a feature of Hosni Mubarak. This reflects the Egyptian state interest and is very likely to outlast Mubarak."