Wednesday, May 26, 2010

"The US gives Israel a "green light" to take out the missiles, should they locate them inside Lebanon..."

MEPGS: Excerpts:
"... The United Nations Security Council will take up the new Iran sanctions resolution as early as next week. Now that the P- 5 (Russia, China, France, Britain and the US) have agreed on the text, serious lobbying to gain as many votes as possible has begun. US officials are confident of ten votes in the fifteen member chamber. They also believe in the end, both Uganda and Nigeria will raise the total to twelve. The hold outs remain Lebanon, Turkey and Brazil; the latter two, of course, being the architects of last week's ill-fated attempt at a deal with Iran to head off this round of UN sanctions...... On paper, this round of sanctions is far from harsh. References to potentially painful measures, such as targeting Iran's Central Bank, are contained in the preamble to the resolution and, as such, do not carry legal weight. However, veteran observers believe that, in time, such distinctions will fade...... The Administration's somewhat cavalier approach to the Congress ["These people are just show boating," said one senior US official this week), is in stark contrast to its assiduous wooing of even the most recalcitrant international players. For example, President Obama spent a hour on the phone with Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan the day after his abortive deal with the Iranians. This week he met with Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who, at best, is expected to instruct his delegation to abstain on the UN vote. There is sympathy for Hariri's position since the Iranian backed Hezbollah movement is widely considered to control the most powerful military force in Lebanon. But, according to informed sources, Hariri's claim that Lebanon needed to represent the Arab world's interests did not elicit much sympathy. For one thing, much of the Arab world, albeit quietly and discreetly, supports US efforts to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions. Lebanon is also facing another, potentially even more
dangerous problem with Hezbollah.....

While much attention has been focused on the Scuds, US officials say the Fatah-110 is a more dangerous weapon, smaller and more easily operated. As one top US official says, "It is a real `game-changer'." .. The Administration has repeatedly made representations to the Syrians about the danger of adding these missiles to Hezbollah's arsenal. This week, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry, at the Administration's request delivered the latest warning. The Israelis believe that the Scuds and/or Fatah 110's have already crossed into Lebanon. US intelligence is not as certain, believing perhaps that Hezbollah is training on these weapons still inside Syria. However, the Administration has apparently given Israel a "green light" to take out the missiles, should they locate them inside Lebanon. As one key US official put it this week, "I just hope it is a surgical strike." US-Israeli relations appear to be improving across-the- board. White House Chief of Staff, Rahm Emmanuel, in Israel this week for his son's Bar Mitzvah (and a highly anticipated visit to an Israeli air force base) is expected to invite Prime Minister Netanyahu to Washington for a visit with the President in the coming weeks.....And there is even talk of a possible visit to Israel by the President should the current round of "proximity talks" between Israel and the Palestinians, shepherded by Special Envoy George Mitchell, lead to direct talks in September. Domestic political considerations have also factored into helping create a new warmth between the Obama Administration and the Netanyahu government. Two weeks ago forty Jewish Members of Congress met with the President to express their anxiety over what some say is the parlous state of relations between the two countries. Many, already concerned about the current anti- incumbent climate, see some of their Jewish supporters backing away, in part, because of the perceived tensions between the President and the current Israeli government."

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