"With Baradar in Pakistani hands, the logic goes, Islamabad now has a seat at the table ..."

Danger-Room/ here

"The Pakistani military has now confirmed the arrest of Mullah Baradar, the Taliban’s top military commander, who was reportedly captured in a secret joint operation by U.S. and Pakistani intelligence agencies.

It seems like a major win for United States, which is now pressing an offensive in southern Afghanistan. But according to Carlotta Gall and Souad Mekhennet of the New York Times, the biggest winner in the capture of Baradar may be the government of Pakistan, which may have earned a seat at the table in any negotiations to end the war in Afghanistan.

Here’s the key point: Baradar, by many accounts, was described as a pragmatist willing to talk peace with the Afghan government (and maybe the Americans, too). But Pakistani officials, Gall and Mekhennet write, had been excluded from U.S. and and Afghan overtures to the Taliban.

“On the one hand, the Americans don’t want us to negotiate directly with the Taliban, but then we hear that they are doing it themselves without telling us,” a senior Pakistani intelligence official complained to them. “You don’t treat your partners like this.”

With Baradar in Pakistani hands, the logic goes, Islamabad now has a seat at the table.

It requires a bit of Kremlinology, however, to read between the lines of this story: It’s based on a lot of quotes from high-level, but unnamed, U.S. and Pakistani officials. The Times story quotes one anonymous U.S. intelligence official, who concedes Baradar’s role in the reconciliation process. “I know that our people had been in touch with people around him and were negotiating with him,” the official says. But it also quotes another, Washington-based official, who dismissed as conspiracy theory the idea that Pakistani intelligence orchestrated the capture of Baradar to land a place in negotiations.

So how will this play out? The Times suggests a few options. The arrest of Baradar could, in theory, help persuade some Taliban commanders to join talks. Or, if he is perceived as being mistreated, the whole thing could backfire."