OXFAN: "Popular will" is an impediment to Jordanian-US relations, and would thus risk losing the government US financial support ..

OxfAn: Excerpts:

"... King Abdallah in November unexpectedly dissolved parliament and, following the resignation of former Prime Minister Nader Dahabi's government, appointed Samir Rifai as prime minister. It was then announced that elections would not be held until the last quarter of 2010.

Abdallah instructed the new government to introduce a new election law, which would lead to a more representative lower house. Opposition parties, including the Islamic Action Front (IAF) -- the political wing of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood -- and civil society groups have long called for a new election law in order to break the majority of seats held by regime loyalists. The regime has pledged to do so since 2005 but, until last November, it never deemed the time suitable.

Reform opportunity. The government is likely to use the intervening period between now and parliamentary elections to introduce temporary laws without the inconvenience of having to secure parliamentary approval. It will advance an existing national political, economic and administrative reform programme which has been obstructed by an uncooperative parliament in the past. Reform laws will affect the financial and business environments, and also the political system.

However, while Abdallah has called for changes to the election law, he is most interested in ensuring the formation of a more compliant and reform-minded parliament. Creation of a genuinely representative assembly would benefit the IAF -- the largest and most effective opposition party. While Abdallah has grown increasingly frustrated with loyal, but conservative parliaments, he is unlikely to sanction a move that empowers the IAF since:

• an Islamist parliament would be viewed as a natural constraint on the government's freedom to exercise its will in both domestic and foreign policy; ... an impediment to Jordanian-US relations, and would thus risk losing the government US financial support.......

Outlook. Powerful ethnic-Transjordanian elites view reform as a challenge to their privileged positions, and oppose any change that would empower the Palestinian-dominated Islamist opposition. Such elites maintain a stranglehold on political power and have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo; to date, they have successfully resisted every effort on the part of reformers to achieve consensus on a fairer electoral law.

Yet if the regime is to realise its desire to open a new era of cooperation with the Islamist opposition, it will need to undertake electoral reform that affords fairer representation to the movement's largely urban Jordanian-Palestinian support-base. Otherwise, relations between the two will continue to be governed by external factors, and as such remain fragile...."