Tuesday, November 17, 2009

"... they will soon say, 'yes, but not quite this,' and prolong more."

Laura Rosen in Politico, here

 "... ISIS's David Albright and Jacqueline Shiredescribe a mixed picture. On the one hand, Iran is not using the full number of centrifuges it has to enrich uranium, keeping the rate of enrichment of uranium at a steady rate of 2.8kg per day. It's not clear if Iran is restraining its potential enrichment rate as a kind of undeclared gesture of moderation to the West, or if technical reasons prevent it from using all the centrifuges it has at Natanz, or if it has a shortage of uranium hexaflouride.

"My hunch, and it is just a hunch, is that Iran is comfortable maintaining an LEU output that holds steady at about 2.75-2.8 kg ... per day," ISIS's Shire told POLITICO. "This is how it has been for at least the last 6 months maybe longer ... [There is] no obvious technical problems that I'm aware of. If they started enriching with the other centrifuges [they have], LEU output could increase dramatically putting them under greater diplomatic pressure." 

But the report also offers several reasons for concern about Iran's continued lack of transparency about its nuclear program. .......Iran watchers say Iran, preoccupied with continued internal strife and in-fighting, does not seem capable at the moment of making a decision to go through with the deal -- or reject it.

"Iran can't yet take 'yes' for an answer and Obama is using the time and anger of all to try to draw Russians closer," comments the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's nonproliferation expert George Perkovich. The "Iranians also should understand that El Baradei has helped them, this is his deal, and he's leaving ... So I suspect they will soon say, 'yes, but not quite this,' and prolong more."...

But other observers say it's worth noting that Iran seems to be restraining its enrichment rate below its full capacity -- and likely not for technical reasons. Perhaps it is a gesture to the West that rival political factions cannot thwart as they have so far the Tehran Research Reactor deal, former NSC Iran hand Gary Sick suggested in an NPR report today...."

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