Amal S Ghorayeb comments on Stratfor's litany of jokes & "Hezbollah's rising star" ...

I post it with her permission:

"After reading this ------ , I was forced to write STRATFOR the following mail, if only because they made me waste 5 minutes of my time reading it:

I have been waiting for an "objective", "nonpartisan" and "non-ideological" "report" like this. While I have always been overwhelmed by the "empirical evidence" in which you ground your claims, I was particularly wowed by the scientific methodology underlying your latest report on Hizbullah, which completely dismisses primary sources like Hizbullah officials' media statements as well as their own writings , such as Sheikh Nai'im's book "Hizbullah: the Story from Within", part of which, is devoted to his commitment to the principle of the Wali al-Faqih.

But hey, which of your discerning clients will take his word over yours, right? Afterall, your penetration of Hizbullah's organizational apparatus with Stratfor's own "sources in Hezbollah", is most impressive and reliable. In fact, upon reading about your infiltration, which not even Israel has succeeded in achieving, Hizbullah was forced to take extra security measures. What a joke.

If you are in the business of providing your hapless clients with pseudo-intelligence then this latest analysis is probably one of the greatest rip-offs. And if this was your idea of psych-ops against Hizbullah, then your patrons are wasting their time and money on this fruitless, though highly amusing, endeavour.

Thank you Stratfor for providing me with a text book case of what the American academy's "standards" consist of."

(excerpts of the "Infiltration" analysis) "STRATFOR sources report that a meeting recently took place in Lebanon between Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qasim and a number of Hezbollah fighters who have recently returned from Iran after completing training north of Tehran. In the meeting, Qasim allegedly told his fighters to expect an Israeli offensive no later than March or April 2010 and to prepare accordingly. He went on to claim that Hezbollah’s long-range rockets would target Israeli harbors, government buildings and military bases from the Galilee to the northern fringes of the Negev Desert. The rocket barrage, according to Qasim, would provide cover for Hezbollah fighters to cross the border and attack northern Israeli towns at night. The open manner in which this information was disseminated to STRATFOR suggests that Hezbollah is looking to inflate its own military capabilities and warn Israel against starting up a military conflict with Hezbollah..... Of particular concern to Hezbollah is the risk Syria could pose to the group. With Syria quietly negotiating with the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia behind the scenes, Hezbollah has to account for the possibility that the Syrian regime will provide critical intelligence to Israel (scary) that would compromise the group’s operations. Hezbollah is especially concerned about Israeli penetration into the group’s communication network ... While Hezbollah is preparing itself for a potential conflict with Israel, it also has a few internal organizational issues to sort out that spring from the group’s relations with Iran. STRATFOR has been closely tracking Iran’s efforts to tighten its grip over Hezbollah in recent years.... Though Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah is the public leader of the organization as secretary-general, he has largely fallen out of favor with Tehran and has been sidelined from meetings between Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) representatives and Hezbollah’s key commanders. Given Nasrallah’s charisma and popularity among the Shiite population in Lebanon, Iran has thus far kept Nasrallah as the public face of Hezbollah while enhancing the clout of those members, like Qasim, who have been more loyal to Tehran.... Qasim is well-positioned in the party and has the trust of the IRGC, but there is one problem with Qasim that disqualifies him from becoming the ideal candidate for Iran’s chief agent in Hezbollah: he does not subscribe to the Vilayat al-Faqih ...... Qasim’s reluctance to accept Vilayat al-Faqih has apparently lowered his chances of succeeding Nasrallah as secretary-general........ But there is a rising star in Hezbollah who is more comfortable with the Vilayat al-Faqih concept and has a good chance of assuming leadership of the party. Sheikh Nabil Qawuq has been described by members of Hezbollah as the de facto governor and security chief of southern Lebanon...... STRATFOR sources reported then that Saleh’s “accidental” fall from a building under construction onto the public highway was in fact an assassination ordered by Qawuq, who felt Nasrallah was overreaching his authority in appointing Saleh and more importantly, going against Iran’s wishes..."