Friday, November 6, 2009

"Gamal Mubarak courting the military, which remains hesitant about the prospect of a non-military president..."

OXFAN: Excerpts:
"... The National Democratic Party's (NDP's) Sixth Annual Conference took place between October 30 and November 3.
The conference set out the party's economic and political programme for the coming year, but all eyes were on Gamal Mubarak, who may succeed his father as president......, touching on a number of key areas:
1. Economics. Productivity and foreign investment were among the topics discussed, with President Hosni Mubarak hailing an increase in both, .....Such claims -- and associated promises to continue in this manner -- will not satisfy Egypt's population, ...... The misuse of funds, corruption, and poor supervision are common complaints -- the latter reflected, for example, in the recent rubbish collection crisis in Cairo.
2. Politics. .... He insisted that reform requires courage, but comes at a price. This apparent price has been referred to repeatedly by the NDP, in a seeming effort to stall political reform by suggesting that political openness would create an opportunity for the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) to rise to power and derail democratic progress. Yet such fears are overstated -- since the 1970s, the MB has renounced violence and has actively participated in state institutions, adjusting its ideology on a number of issues -- with its reformists supporting change. ......
Succession.
The conference focused attention on Gamal, who is tipped to succeed as president
-- although there has been no confirmation of this by the NDP, and other possible candidates including intelligence chief Omar Suleiman are also discussed. There have recently been other possible names presented, such as Amr Moussa, who heads the Arab League and IAEA chief Mohammed El Baradei.
However, these prospective new candidates face a number of obstacles ....
The presentation of new names obscures the position that Gamal has secured for himself during the last nine years,......
Opposition response.
The opposition were unimpressed by the NDP conference, ... (yet)
the MB realises that its opposition to the succession will lead to fierce confrontation with the state, risking hundreds of arrests. There has been talk of possible engagement with Gamal's representatives to reach an agreement, but this seems unlikely given the attack on the MB at the conference.
Outlook.
The NDP's attack on the opposition and presentation of itself as the only viable political option for Egypt will go down well with party stalwarts, but are unlikely to raise its credibility among the general public, .....
He will also court important sectors -- such as the military, which remains hesitant about the prospect of a non-military president. Gamal and the political elite will probably respond by presenting Suleiman as a possible vice president to ensure that military interests are adequately represented..."

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