"Feud will hurt Maliki but not Damascus"

OXFAN: Excerpts:

" Iraqi and Syrian foreign ministers will meet in Istanbul tomorrow as part of Turkish efforts to mediate in the diplomatic row over the August 19 truck bombings in Baghdad.....

Syrian foreign policy. This row has erupted at a time when Syria is improving many of its international ties: 

1.        Syria-Iraq. Prior to these events, there was a great improvement in Syrian-Iraqi ties. In April, a high-level Syrian ministerial delegation visited Baghdad, opening what Iraqi President Jalal Talabani described as a "new era of strategic relations" in the areas of politics, economy, security, trade and oil. The two countries signed an agreement creating a Supreme Joint Committee for Syrian-Iraqi relations with a mandate to strengthen ties on a long list of issues, including energy, water, finance, communications, sport, media and the arts. 

2.        Syria-United States. In keeping with Washington's promise to engage Syria,...

3.        Syria-Saudi Arabia.... by a redefinition of mutual goals in Lebanon, prompting Riyadh to send a new ambassador to Damascus. ....Apparently the Saudis are waiting to gauge how strong the Syrian-US relationship is before deciding the extent of their cooperation. They are also waiting to see how Iran will react to the changing status quo. 

4.        Syria-France.... France, along with other European nations, has warmed to Damascus after Syria appeared to support political detente among Lebanon's squabbling factions. 

5.        Syria-EU. .... 

After a long process of gradual rapprochement with neighbours and regional powers, it is difficult to imagine that Syria would jeopardise its foreign policy achievements for the sake of destabilising the Maliki government. Many Iraqis and non-Iraqis voiced their scepticism regarding the accusations, arguing instead that Maliki is seeking to divert attention from his own government's security failures. 

Iraqi domestic politics. Maliki is likely trying to shore up his position ahead of January parliamentary elections, after developments that have weakened his prospects of re-election:

• The increase in violence in recent months undermined his self-styled image as the leader who saw the defeat of insurgency, and his claims that Iraqi forces were capable of handling security after US forces pulled out of Iraqi cities in June.
• The Shia coalition that once backed him has split up, with former allies last month launching a new alliance - the Iraqi National Alliance -- in which he was not included.

He may have calculated that turning on Syria -- usually a safe political bet, especially among his Shia constituents -- would boost his weakening chances of retaining his position in the parliamentary election. ....... and his rivals have seized on the spat with Syria as a further opportunity to erode his standing. High-profile figures have criticised him:

• Talabani openly chastised Maliki for the dispute with Syria,...
• Vice-President Adel Abdel Mahdi expressly criticised the practice of taking credit for success but blaming others for failures.

International reactions. Maliki's accusations against Syria were received cautiously by other states, even though many of them had already condemned Damascus for keeping its borders open since the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. Significantly, Washington remained largely silent about Maliki's accusations, suggesting a lack of support for the charges or Maliki's handling of the dispute. 

Most Arab states have remained quiet for similar reasons,...... The Saudi media has reminded Maliki of Syria's willingness to meet the costs of sheltering 1.5 million Iraqi refugees. 

CONCLUSION: It is unlikely that Damascus was behind the Bloody Wednesday bombings. The accusation has had little effect on international attitudes towards Syria, and will not have any significant impact on its other foreign policy advances. Maliki is likely to stand firm in demanding Syrian action to curb militant infiltrations across the border, in an attempt to avoid the blame for his poor security record. However, it is Maliki who will most likely pay the political price, as his upcoming campaign for re-election could be further undermined."