Sunday, June 7, 2009

"Let’s hope Hizbullah wins: This will worsen its strategic position"

In YNETnews, here

".... the results are still unclear and the Hizbullah-led Shiite bloc may ultimately win. Yet this could be a positive development for Israel.

......Local strategists must be calculating the implication of such political situation in the event of a war erupting between Israel and Iran. After all, we can assume that under such circumstances, Lebanon would powerfully attack Israel. There is no doubt that if all hope is lost, such war will break out. Hizbullah will attack, whether it is part of the government or not. There is also no doubt that most arms used in such war would in any event be taken out of Hizbullah’s arms warehouses, rather than from the Lebanese army, which mostly possesses defensive equipment and does not threaten Israel in any way.

The possibility of Hizbullah taking power does not change the threat against Israel to a large extent. Yet it critically changes the organization’s strategic position – for the worse. Until today, most of its power was premised on what it refers to as “al-Muqama,” or “the resistance.” Naturally, the resistance is based on guerilla warfare and is a tactic adopted yb organizations, rather than by sovereign governments. ........There is no real justification in attacking the Lebanese army, the presidential palace, or the country’s infrastructure as long as they are not part of Hizbullah and do not support it. .."

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