WINEP: "The destruction or seizure of Pakistan's arsenal by U.S. special forces is a necessary part of Washington's planning..."

WINEP, here

"...Policy Options

Pakistan's diverse and dysfunctional leadership inhibits U.S. policymaking. The visit to Washington this week by the increasingly isolated President Zardari might only confirm the problem. The enigmatic military leader Gen. Ashfaq Kayani seems unwilling to work closely with Zardari. Kayani is not accompanying his president to the United States. The traditional template of Pakistan's military and bureaucratic elite providing stability regardless of the country's shifting political leadership appears no longer valid.

The United States is planning more aid for the Pakistan military, particularly for forces capable of operating against the Taliban rather than confronting India. Economic aid for social and educational spending is also planned, but at a projected $1.5 billion a year, it is likely to have little impact in a country of 176 million people. Measures to secure Pakistan's nuclear weapons and manufacturing facilities also need to be considered. The destruction or seizure of this arsenal by U.S. special forces is increasingly being perceived as a necessary part of Washington's planning rather than a fanciful option.

Taking a wider perspective, an implosion of political authority in Pakistan would likely be perceived as a failure of U.S. policy and diplomatic leadership, with implications both regional and worldwide. Officials are reported to have likened the situation to the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, when the Shah failed to order his military to take action against demonstrators. The fall of the Shah was a setback for the United States that still resonates. Persian Gulf Arab allies of both Islamabad and Washington, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have played a limited and generally helpful role in influencing Pakistan, but that task seems to becoming too large. India, so far mostly silent on the crisis, must also be greatly concerned. In 2002, India and Pakistan came close to a nuclear exchange. Although the present challenge is different, it is arguably even larger."