Lebanon's volatility is bound to persist....

In the ECONOMIST, here

"....Lebanon is not just another small, combustible Mediterranean country of 4m people. It has a most unusual form of democracy,..... The country is also a cockpit for wider struggles. With outsiders such as Iran, America, Syria and Saudi Arabia throwing their weight behind competing factions, the electoral outcome will inevitably be seen as a test of their relative strengths.....

But although some opinion polls suggest a slight lead for the opposition, the result may well be close. Oussama Safa, a political consultant, reckons that, given loyalties within the sectarian patchwork of voting districts, the two main alliances are each guaranteed around a third of the seats, leaving only a third of them in play....yet the result may not produce radical change.....

Last year Hizbullah and its allies,... by staging a swift takeover of Sunni strongholds in Beirut..... the fighting infuriated Sunnis, frightened some of Hizbullah’s Christian partners and has left the squabbling parties suspended in a precarious equilibrium.

This, no matter what the election result, looks likely to be maintained, at any rate in the short run. Even if the March 14th group keeps a slim majority, it cannot counter Hizbullah’s street power under the charismatic leadership of Hassan Nasrallah, a bearded cleric who inspires fierce loyalty. Nor can it stop Hizbullah’s quietly effective infiltration of key institutions, such as the army. In fact, some March 14th leaders already sound willing to accommodate their foes. The Druze chief, Walid Jumblatt, a weathervane of Lebanese politics and until recently a loud critic of Iran and Syria, has taken to exchanging compliments with Mr Nasrallah. A leaked recording of Mr Jumblatt in a private meeting revealed him disparaging his own coalition allies.

Yet the opposition alliance has weaknesses too. The Christian supporters of General Aoun feel slighted by the March 14th coalition and say that it is corrupt, but regard their own alliance with Hizbullah as tactical rather than strategic. ....

Lebanon is used to fractious politics. Despite the years of turbulence, its economy is humming along nicely. It may tolerate another period of muddle and perhaps even emerge with a stronger centre, joining moderate parts of both the current coalitions. But the volatility is bound to persist..."