"...To begin with, at this point I don't think it is possible to persuade Iran to give up full control of the nuclear fuel cycle. They've committed a lot of money and prestige to acquiring this capacity, the program is popular domestically, and it is legal within the confines of the NPT. So if our bottom line is for them to abandon enrichment, etc., we're almost certainly going to fail.
Our goal, instead, should be to convince Iran that it is better off not developing nuclear weapons...,
I don’t know if it's possible to achieve this goal, but here's how I'd try.
First and foremost, the United States has to take the threat of military force and regime change off the table...
Second, we need to explain to Iran that possessing a known nuclear weapons capability is not without its own costs and risks....
I'd also point out to them that acquiring nuclear weapons will encourage other states in the Middle East to follow suit. Given that Iran has a lot more latent power potential than its neighbors in the Gulf, it should prefer to confine the competition there to the conventional realm, where its larger population and considerable economic potential will inevitably give it considerable influence...
....and while I'd strongly prefer that Iran decide not to become a nuclear weapons state, I'm not going to panic if it does cross that line at some point down the road. And neither should anyone else."
Stephen Walt in FP, here
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