Friday, March 20, 2009

"...Hizballah believes it is on a winning streak. It is a slick movement: it knows what it is up against and has a good grasp of Israeli politics..."

Andrew Tabler, at WINEP, here

"...Discussions in Washington and, to a lesser extent, in Europe are ongoing about how to drive a wedge between Syria and Iran, possibly using Hizballah as a tool to that end. Unfortunately, there is little hope of successfully exploiting Hizballah in this manner. The relationship between Hizballah, Syria, and Iran is deep-rooted, and although a Syrian deal with Israel might have some impact, it is unlikely that Syria would end its relations with Hizballah to achieve this outcome. And since it is is even less likely that Hizballah would downgrade its ties to Tehran, the relationship between Hizballah and Iran will persevere.
Hizballah believes it is on a winning streak. It is a slick movement: it knows what it is up against and has a good grasp of Israeli politics. The organization has a clear ideological program and knows what it wants in the long run, namely, a preponderant place in Lebanese politics and ultimately the establishment of an Islamic state. Hizballah believes it is very well positioned to emerge from the elections even stronger.
Domestically, Hizballah faces some constraints. The way in which the Lebanese elections are constructed, for example, makes it very difficult for Hizballah to gain more seats in parliament than it already has. Nonetheless, if the March 14 coalition wins, the worst that can happen, from Hizballah's point of view, is that there will be a narrow coalition government in which Hizballah continues to hold a "blocking third." In this event, it will still be able to influence and constrain government policy.
Regardless of whether Hizballah wins, it will continue to maintain its position in Lebanon, possess weapons, and control the finances, politics, and communications in the south. The organization has been incredibly successful over the years and posseses enough power to unilaterally make decisions of war and peace for Lebanon..."

1 comment:

Peter H said...

FYI, those comments were made by Magnus Norell, not Andrew Tabler.