Monday, February 16, 2009

Syria & Iran policies' uncertainties, prompt Arabs to close ranks

Marc Lynch in FP, here

Why? With divisions intensifying, Arab leaders may have recognized the dangers of a complete collapse of the existing order. There has been a lot of talk over the last few weeks in the Arab media about the destructiveness and pointlessness of the media wars and political divisions, the failures of the Arab order over Gaza, and the need to regroup. While good sense does not as a rule prevail in these situations, this time perhaps it did. Here are a few suggestions as to why: Reading Obama's signals. Riyadh and Cairo (and Damascus) may have been responding to the perception that the Obama administration would look favorably on the rehabilitation of Syria and an Arab formula for bringing Hamas back in to the game. At the least, their consultations reflect their uncertainty about Obama's intentions  There is considerable uncertainty about Obama's intentions towards Iran, and what the promised dialogue might entail. So the move to get the Arab house in (relative) order might be prompted in part by anticipation of such changes.....

Saudi and Egyptian internal politics. Some sources suggest that the outreach to Syria is part and parcel of the [hidden] major governmental shuffle carried out by King Abdullah the other day. Given the portfolios in question I'm not sure about this -- but with any luck, friendly Saudi experts might weigh in on the question soon... Egyptian domestic politics may have played a role, as well. The government's mediation efforts with Hamas can not help but interact with its high-tension relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood, and this may have taken the heat off of government struggling with public dissatisfaction with a whole range of issues..."

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