"... N. believes the IDF should not be asking whether Hezbollah is capable of attacking the Galilee but what it means that it is entertaining this idea. He sees a warning light, indicating a paradigm change. He attributes the change to developments that are forcing Hezbollah to change its goal from trying to drag out the campaign to making it as short as possible.According to N., Hezbollah would rather stick to its old strategy, which led to the IDF withdrawing from Lebanon in 2000 and its achievements in 2006. However, the organization has since become established in Lebanese politics, making it more responsible for whatever happens in the country if Israel attacked.Moreover, Hezbollah used to rely on the outlook expressed by its leader Hassan Nasrallah after Israel’s 2000 withdrawal that Israel was weaker than a spider web and unable to absorb losses. This outlook was challenged by Israel’s Operation Defensive Shield in 2002, the Second Lebanon War and Operation Cast Lead in Gaza in 2008. The organization also believes less in the possibility that the international community will intervene to stop the fighting and has lost the support of Syria, which is too busy fighting its own civil war.
There is a silver lining for Hezbollah: It has amassed a lot of experience in the battles in Syria and is now capable of waging a wider war. N. believes that participating in the war in Syria brings Hezbollah closer to adopting an offensive strategy against Israel as well. The significance is that Hezbollah is liable to strive for a different kind of confrontation: Instead of reacting to an Israeli initiative and standing in the breach, taking the initiative and making a ground offensive and multi-pronged attack on Israeli territory.
If Hezbollah does change its strategy, it will have substantial consequences for Israel. The IDF will have to take into account the possibility that Hezbollah will try to shorten the war by creating facts on the ground like an attack on the Galilee. It will have to prepare civilians for such an offensive and prepare for the option of Hezbollah launching a surprise attack in an attempt to end the war before it even begins."
Friday, June 6, 2014
Guessing is good!
Posted by G, M, Z, or B at 9:57 AM