Saturday, October 5, 2013

"The Israeli-Sunni Coalition against Iran"

"... But then Assad started winning battles, recapturing al-Qusair and making strides in Homs. This prompted all the parties to freeze the idea of an agreement. The Syrian president realized that he was on his way to a final victory while the rebels did not want to embark on negotiations from an inferior position. The chemical weapons crisis jump-started the diplomatic negotiations and creative ideas, although the conditions on the ground had changed..."We don't have a lifelong contract with Assad," the Russians reportedly told the Americans (according to a very senior Israeli official). "But we do know that wherever you interfered militarily, it ended up with al-Qaeda." Putin says that all he is trying to do is to prevent the establishment of "another Afghanistan." He has interests in Syria — a big port, intelligence and collaboration with the regime. If these interests are preserved, Putin will go for a broad deal, with or without Assad.
And speaking of a broad deal, the agreement to disarm Assad of his chemical weapons emerges as a big success. All the credit goes to Putin. Assad complies and abides by all his commitments only because Putin gave his word to Obama and the rest of the world in public...

The recent developments following the Syrian agreement and Iran's charm offensive have given rise to a complex and dynamic reality in the Middle East. The following is the current map of axes: The Shiite axis is still led by Iran...
Juxtaposed against the Shiite axis, the Sunni one seems to have splintered into two main forces. The moderate Sunni axis is led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt together with the UAE, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and Yemen. Alongside this is the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Sunni axis under Turkey's leadership. Until recently, Egypt was one of its senior members. But following the military coup that made ousted Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi disappear, Egypt switched from this Sunni camp to the other. Qatar may also be associated with the Muslim Brotherhood camp, although it's straddling the sidelines, considering its moves and flirting with the Saudis....
Either way, the prevailing sentiment from just a few months ago to the effect that the Muslim Brotherhood was poised to take over the Middle East has vanished. The Brotherhood is on the defensive and fighting for its survival.
What's amazing about all of this, Israelis are saying, is the American wager on the Muslim Brotherhood, which was premature and proved itself as wrong, naive and unfounded. Now the Americans feel like the village idiot. With Morsi in prison, they are forced, while gritting their teeth, to support Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi ...
So where is Israel in all of this? Deep down. The recent events as well as America's waning resolve vis-à-vis Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's "charm offensive" have made the ties Israel has fostered with senior states from the Sunni axis much less secretive than they used to be. What we have here, in essence, is a quiet coalition between the Gulf countries and Israel versus America and Europe — with Iran being the only topic on the agenda."

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