Monday, May 6, 2013

Hezbollah & its 'geo-politically inept' enemies in Israel ...

"... There are many lessons from the past:In June 1982, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) entered Lebanon ... ,...
The Shiite group Amal, founded by the cleric Musa al-Sadr (who later disappeared in Libya), was considered to be the strongest Shiite militia in the Land of Cedars. But that group faced an enormous dilemma when Israel entered Lebanon: Should it fight against the Israeli forces or not. The organization’s leaders stuck to their position that had given Israel’s military prowess, it would be best to take a more passive position, rather than getting into trouble. The resulting rift in the Amal movement led to the founding of Hezbollah.
Yes, the IDF struck a harsh blow against the PLO. It even managed to expel PLO leader Yasser Arafat and his supporters from their safe haven in Beirut. But, at the same time, it also got a new Shiite organization, which was much more complex, better armed and far more radicalized than any Palestinian organization they faced. Later, Israel also had to deal with Arafat and his people in Gaza.
Even Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Abbas al-Mousawi turned out to be the kind of military intervention with implications that Israel regrets to this day. The new leader of the movement, Hassan Nasrallah, was far more militant than his predecessor but also far more sophisticated. It was Nasrallah who gained Hezbollah the status that it currently enjoys in the Middle East arena. Hezbollah’s influence on the balance of political and military power in Lebanon is well known. It seems quite obvious that this is not what Israel hoped to achieve.
Here's another example for you:
When the second intifada erupted in September 2000, Israeli public opinion was led to the “conclusion” that it was vital to strike a devastating blow against the Palestinian entity that Arafat established in the occupied territories..., ...,... Everybody knows what happened next. That radical organization won the 2006 elections in the Palestinian Authority. The “Kingdom of Hamas,” or “Hamastan,” as it's known in Israel, was established in Gaza. In retrospect, one can only ask: Wouldn’t a well-established Fatah regime in the occupied territories have been preferable?
This too, of course, is a rhetorical question.
It always follows the same pattern. The idea of just sitting there is anathema to the Israeli leadership. They believe that they must intervene and bring about a change in the balance of power. That is exactly what is happening in Syria today.
On the face of it, the decision to attack the shipments of missiles being sent to Hezbollah seemed like a reasonable response. Ostensibly, Israel could not allow such “game-changing” weaponry to fall into the hands of Hezbollah.
If, however, we were to consider the undesirable implications of all these aforementioned military interventions, would we still reach the conclusion that the most recent move was necessitated by the reality we faced? We may know the past, but we refuse to learn from it...
It already seems clear, and much has been written about it by Al-Monitor, that cells from radical Islamist organizations have already infiltrated the forces fighting against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime. It's still too early to state unequivocally what their role, power and influence might be in the Syria of the future.
Nevertheless, before any decision to attack Syria was made, Israel’s decision makers should have asked one major strategic question: How likely is it that military action in that deadly swamp known as Syria will result in even greater unrest and bring more fundamentalist forces to the country to feed off the chaos?
We have already noted how one can assume that the attack was intended to stop the supply of “game-changing” weapons to Hezbollah. Still, no one can state with absolute certainty that this is not the beginning of some other “game-changing” transformation in Syria, perhaps even one that weakens Hezbollah somewhat, but also boosts those very forces which, when compared to Nasrallah, would make him look like a kind kindergarten teacher."

1 comment:

Lysander said...

I'm afraid that's doubtful. Once in power all the money, weapons and favorable media coverage would dry up in an instant if any of these "Jihadists" even look in Israel's direction.

OTOH, if they are willing to go on a killing spree in Iraq and Lebanon, then maybe the juice will flow for quite some time.

Also, someone with Nassrallah's intellect, charisma, intuition and sheer determination are a once in a generation phenomenon.