"... Here, @mujtahidd noted that according to family tradition, the grandchildren are not automatically entitled to the ruling position, and they are expected not to think or speak of the crown.“[Therefore] they have no choice but to gain it [the crown] by deception or armed force,” he wrote on his account.
According to @mujtahidd, the grandchildren who are currently aspiring for the position and may even consider using force to gain it are: deputy defense minister Khalid bin Sultan, deputy interior minister Mohammad bin Nayef, and commander of the Saudi National Guard Mutaib bin Abdullah, because each of them are in control of a military or security sector.
Meanwhile, grandchildren who may use “deception” to place themselves in a position of power are: governor of the Mecca Province Khalid bin Faisal, governor of the Eastern Province Mohammad bin Fahd, business tycoon al-Waleed bin Talal, and former minister of state Abdul-Aziz bin Fahd.
In regards to Khalid bin Faisal, @mujtahidd asserted that Khalid has been in contact with the Americans to convince them that he could bring change “along an American path” and has coveted close ties with the al-Tuwaijri, a clan closely aligned with King Abdullah, and with senior Westernized Saudis.
For his part, Mohammad bin Fahd had built secret ties with Shia groups and promised them that if they supported his aspirations in any future conflict, he will provide them with financial benefits.
Al-Waleed bin Talal has been desperately trying to convince the West that he is the most capable candidate for them, while domestically he has been using his money buy off support from various tribal groups and family members.
The Sauds consider that the matter will only be resolved by family members or by the Americans. Popular will is secondary and should not be included in the calculations of the conflict.The final grandson in this game of thrones not backed with arms is Abdul-Aziz bin Fahd. He, @mujtahidd claimed, suffered a great loss after his expulsion from the cabinet in June 2011, but may be able to turn the balance back in his favor due to his immense wealth....
After highlighting these issues, the Twitter insider moved on to speculate over what the future can hold in this upcoming struggle.
The best-case scenario, he suggested, was that current Crown Prince Salman dies before King Abdullah and a new crown prince who is in good health, mentally sound, and deserves to do the work is selected. Another scenario, he pointed to, with the caveat that it is “impossible,” is that King Abdullah immediately replace Salman as crown prince.
However, @mujtahidd argued, what is more likely is that King Abdullah will die before Salman, resulting in a country being led by an individual who is practically unaware of his surroundings or is at least unable to command.
@mutahidd then mused whether Salman’s sons would be able to maintain control and ensure the allegiance of other members of the family during Salman’s rule. He predicted that loyalty will initially be expressed in order to maintain the rank-and-file buttressed by silence from the rest of the world. But after the honeymoon period, confrontations are to be expected, he wrote, because the senior members of the family would never accept Salman’s sons controlling matters from behind the curtains.
Without a collective decision-making process or the absence of a neutral influential party, a solution is impossible. Therefore the important question, @mujtahidd stressed, “is not what the shape of the conflict is but who is eligible and who is preparing for the battle from now?”
@mujtahidd asserted that the only powerful contenders to the throne are those who have control of an armed force, such as Mutaib bin Abdullah, Khalid bin Sultan, and Mohammad bin Nayef......
@mujtahidd claimed that Khalid bin Sultan had been outspoken about his aspirations to the throne since he was appointed minister of defense, after his father was anointed crown prince. Even after the death of his father, Khalid continued to vocalize his ambitions and successfully persuaded King Abdullah to allow him to keep his position in the ministry. Through the ministry, Khalid was able to build his influence and garner troops that may be unleashed should he seek to conduct a coup.
Yet @mujtahidd discounted Khalid’s chances, noting that those who know Khalid know that he is suffering from grandiosity and he is more likely to be thinking beyond his actual means.
The Twitter insider added that Khalid is weaker than his competitors as an individual, and is weaker in terms of his control over the army and the amount of loyalty he has nurtured. This weakness stems from the fact that Khalid and his uncles have pocketed a large amount of funds allocated for the military, which resulted in it being ill-equipped and ill-trained for such a brazen endeavor.
Next up is Mutaib bin Abdullah. @mujtahidd noted that Mutaib may be smarter than Khalid and can easily exploit the latter as a liaison officer with the Americans. Also, Mutaib had devised a more thorough plan with the al-Tuwaijri clan to garner support. @mujtahidd claimed that the plan, which had immense support from the Americans, was to basically adopt a constitutional monarchy under Mutaib, with Khalid al-Tuwaijri, currently the president of the Royal Court and private secretary to King Abdullah, placed as prime minister.....
But @mujtahidd considers the third contender, Mohammad bin Nayef, the best bet for six simple reasons.
First, Mohammad has his hands in all the security sectors that can be called upon in case of a conflict. Secondly, the internal security forces under Mohammad’s administration are bolstered by the fact that they are capable and allowed to be anywhere under the pretext of protecting security, including conducting manhunts, raids, searches, and arrests. Thirdly, the security forces have a larger presence than the National Guard and army and are better trained and organized. Fourthly, if the security services are spread out across the cities, their presence would not be regarded as abnormal or cause any panic compared to the army and National Guard. Fifthly, Mohammad bin Nayef is considered to be more serious than the other two contenders, and is more active in terms of preparing for the future. Finally, @mujtahidd claims that Mohammad had won over much of the royal family because of his effective suppression of the opposition and is considered by many within the family as a “strongman” – which, in the family’s logic, is necessary to maintain absolute control over the country and its destiny despite the bloody repression.
Added to this, @mujtahidd notes that Mohammad bin Nayef has a more direct connection to the Americans than Mutaib, due to his conduct and successes in the “war on terrorism.”
The “war on terrorism” has allowed Mohammad bin Nayef the ability to distribute his forces everywhere to ensure command and control and to be able to maintain a close ear to the ground. The campaign has also taught Mohammad how to gain official authorization and consent from all factions within the ruling family to mobilize his forces and commit arrests whenever he likes.
@mujtahidd opines that all Mohammad bin Nayef would need is a few bombs exploding across the country, accompanied by ready-made propaganda to hype up the impact of the bombings, to make his move. The twitter activist explained that even though previous bombings in the country were not made under the direction of the interior ministry, some were made with their awareness and were not stopped because it allowed Mohammad’s influence to grow within the family.
@mujtahidd concluded his long account by explaining that he was motivated to report these issues in light of a lack of popular activity for change at the moment. But, he added, popular action is inevitable and will surprise the al-Saud, and ultimately overcome any of the contenders’ ambitions...."
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
"By deception and/or armed force,”
Posted by G, M, Z, or B at 12:32 PM