Friday, August 10, 2012

"We must admit that an unintended consequence of the Libya intervention has been to make an intervention in Syria all the less likely"

"... Russia, and to a lesser degree China, sees a precedent established by the U.S. and allied campaign in Libya whereby the United States can lead military coalitions to overthrow troublesome regimes under the banner of humanitarianism. For Russia, Libya did not represent a vital national interest. However, the need to prevent any repetition of the Libya precedent in Syria now does. 
Of course, Russia’s obstructionism is not the only reason why Western nations have not yet intervened in Syria. Geography, a fractured Syrian opposition and the presence of chemical weapons also conspire against the involvement of any external force. But we must admit that an unintended consequence of the Libya intervention has been to make an intervention in Syria all the less likely. 
The benefits of the military intervention in Libya are already clear for all to see. But as is common in military interventions, the costs take longer to measure. We may not know the true cost of the Libya intervention for some time to come."

No comments: