Tuesday, August 14, 2012

US-Turkish cooperation on Syria: 'Hoping for a Lebanon-type power sharing balacing act!'

"...The most pressing issue for Ankara and Washington is not how to assist the resistance. The real issue is what kind of Syria will emerge after Assad’s fall. Ankara’s nightmare scenario is the possibility of a Kurdish state in Syria. Washington’s fundamental fear is the chemical and biological weapons that will be in the hands of a radical, Islamist Syria. This is why the thriving role of al-Qaeda-affiliated militants is disturbing US intelligence.All this does not mean that Ankara and Washington don’t have common interests in a post-Assad Syria. In fact, the two countries have at least three areas of common concern.
The first is an even bloodier civil war after Assad and the risk of the country being broken up.
 'Drawing a new Syria'
The second is an Iran-Saudi Arabia confrontation in Syria. In the best case scenario, there will eventually be a fragile balance resembling Lebanon [with its sectarian power-sharing system]. This will lead to a military dispute and clashes between Iran and Saudi Arabia that will also draw the US and Israel into the party. But the difference compared to Lebanon — as far as the US and Israel are concerned — will be the Muslim Brotherhood and even more radical Sunni entities in Syria.
The third area of joint concern is the possibility of a bloody civil war in Syria inflaming the Sunni-Shiite conflicts in neighboring Iraq and Lebanon.
As a result of all of this, a far more challenging time awaits Ankara and Washington in the post-Assad phase."

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I really think we need to be careful with all this so-called analysis. An Islamist Syria would never be a threat to the US and Zionist interests, just like Islamist Egypt. They want to make it look like they're reluctantly helping the Islamists, but the Muslim Brotherhood was created by the British occupation and its top members remain living lavishly all across Europe.