Wednesday, August 15, 2012

"Unfortunately, the current international approach in Syria is repeating rather than avoiding US mistakes in Iraq"

"...The best strategy for those who wish to avoid a protracted war in Syria is to bring Russia and Iran to the international diplomatic table. Russian and Iranian participation are essential to a viable post-al-Assad transition; the alternative, a transitional plan generated exclusively by the United States and its allies, can be accomplished only through force.
To insist on the military path without engaging Assad's backers is to condemn Syrian civilians to escalating violence in pursuit of regime change.
To date, external backers of the two sides have focused on arming their local proxies rather than negotiating. Russia and Iran have reiterated their commitment to the Assad government, both diplomatically and through direct support. Recent reports suggest that the United States has doubled down on funding the rebels with a secret presidential order authorizing military assistance (stopping short for now of actual "lethal aid," which has been outsourced to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, in coordination with Turkey).
The current confrontational approach is unsurprising, because toppling the Syrian regime would alter the regional balance of power against Iran and in favor of pro-Western governments. Until quite recently the United States was prepared to partner with the al-Assad regime, ..... But with the United States and Israel contemplating an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, wresting control of Syria from an Iranian supporter and severing links between Damascus and Hezbollah are strategic goals served by assistance to the rebels.
As recent weeks have shown, the rebels have only begun to achieve parity through indiscriminate armed attacks, often resulting in as many casualties among civilians as among the ostensible targets. Even with additional arms, opposition groups resisting al-Assad's repression may fight the regime only to a standstill.
More direct American military involvement to shift the balance decisively in favor of the rebels would be even more damaging....For these very reasons, U.S. government preparations for the post-al-Assad fallout use Iraq rather than Libya as the relevant comparison. Unfortunately, the current international approach seems more likely to repeat rather than avoid U.S. mistakes in Iraq.
By funneling weapons to the rebels through regional actors, the rebels' external backers are setting the stage for escalating sectarian conflict -- even ethnic cleansing -- pitting Sunni constituencies backed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar against opponents that they increasingly identify in sectarian terms as Alawites rather than regime supporters.....
...... the United States should engage both Iran and Russia through creative diplomacy. Iran's cooperation on Syria might be linked to the question of its nuclear program, perhaps forestalling sanctions that have yet to come into effect.
Similarly, Russia's strategic interests must be addressed, such as preserving the Russian navy's current access to the Mediterranean through Syrian ports. If the goal is to end the violence and transition to a post-al-Assad Syria, this is the only credible option....."

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