'Despite his strong approval ratings on foreign policy, Obama does not want a risky US engagement in Syria'

"...President Obama himself remains cautious. Despite his relatively strong approval ratings on foreign policy, he does not want a risky US engagement in Syria to take place at this stage. Despite the much heralded “rebalancing” of US strategy toward the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East continues to attract top attention. The problems of Egypt and Iran provided the background to Secretary of Defense Panetta’s visit to Israel – the third by a top national security official is as many weeks. Our contacts tell us that Panetta is satisfied that, despite deepening Israeli unease about the ineffectiveness of sanctions and diplomacy to curtail Iran’s nuclear program, military action is not imminent. Away from the Middle East, there is growing concern that upheaval in Mali may provide a base for Al Qaeda to establish itself there. The US Africa Command is conducting urgent talks with its West African counterparts to assemble a stabilization force. We expect to see a substantially increased US activity tempo, focused on Special Forces, in the Sahel. Finally, the US continues to keep up the pressure on China over the South China Sea. This is far from being an international “hot spot” but it is part of long-range US strategy to remain the dominant power in that region."