Thursday, April 12, 2012

CSM: 'Better than allowing Saudi Arabia turn Syria into an Islamist hotbed ...let's finish Assad ourselves!'

"...The danger with this scenario is that while Saudi Arabia embarks on its jihad to topple Mr. Assad, it will get free reign in picking the winners and losers among the opposition – likely Islamist groups at the expense of moderates and secularists...
When the Syrian uprising began last March, Saudi Arabia was in a state of panic. The revolution in Egypt, the uprising in Bahrain, and the bubbling civil war in Yemen consumed Riyadh’s attention and cultivated a manic siege mentality.
However as the Saudi domestic and geopolitical situation began to stabilize, the rulers began to look at the potential opportunity to topple the Assad regime in Syria, and seize the initiative in Saudi Arabia's increasingly tense standoff with Iran....
For years, Syria has been the conduit through which Iranian influence has been peddled into the Levant...Short of toppling the regime in Tehran, toppling Assad and replacing his regime with a more ideologically symmetric Sunni Islamist government would thus be the greatest possible prize in Saudi Arabia's struggle with its Persian foe. Not only would it remove Iran's greatest Arab ally, but it could potentially sever Tehran's connection to Hezbollah and Hamas....
A steady stream of firebrand Islamic clerics and senior religious officials took to the airwaves with official Saudi sanction to excoriate the Assad regime and encourage pious Muslims to strive against it. The influence of these clerics and the increasing connection between them and fighters in Syria is evidenced by communiqués from armed groups like the “Supporters of God Brigade” in Hama.
The Saudi decision to endorse such religious statements is a sign that the rulers are once again willing to embrace one of the most potent weapons in the kingdom’s arsenal – state-directed jihad. It is one of the most tried and true weapons the kingdom possesses, having been utilized to fight Egyptian President Gama Abdel Nasser’s pan-Arab movement in Yemen, the Serbs in Bosnia, and of course the Soviets in Afghanistan, to name just a few cases. 
However, this Saudi-endorsed religious call to arms is a dangerous weapon. Allowing preachers to fulminate against Assad and raise the standard of jihad risks leading to a resurgence of radical Islamist groups. It gives them political space to operate in and provides access to new recruits by tapping into the state-sponsored movement....
This is worrisome as it could have the effect of distorting the opposition movement by strengthening ideologically allied Islamist groups over moderates, secularists, and others opposed to the Assad regime, giving Saudi Arabia a critical role in shaping the narrative of the conflict.
The Americans cannot afford to stand by and let this potentially dangerous narrative develop without them. As a counter-balance to Saudi influence, if the current ceasefire does not hold, the US should initiate direct contact with the Free Syrian Army and its allies with an eye toward establishing military and civilian supply routes
The US must also match the position of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states regarding the creation of safety corridors and zones in Syria. The public exploration of such an option with Turkey should commence as soon as possible. Finally, if the ceasefire does not hold, the international community should consider using limited military force against the Assad regime..."

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