Thursday, March 22, 2012

WINEP's: '"What Ankara’s next step will be?"

"... what Ankara’s next step will be.
Ankara will likely not sit idly by as the al-Assad regime continues to kill fellow Muslims next door. Accordingly, Turkey’s policy will become more active in the coming days. One such scenario could involve Turkey arming the Syrian opposition....
While the nuts and bolts of Ankara’s potential decision to arm the opposition would need to be worked out in greater detail, if such a policy also fails to convince al-Assad to stop his crackdown, Turkey would likely move to implement the next phase of its Syria policy, calling for no-fly zones inside Syria to protect civilians....
At the moment, however, a no-fly zone in Syria is likely Ankara’s last resort. Turkey appears determined to steer clear of a full-scale military intervention to end the conflict.
Ankara believes that putting Turkish boots on the ground would make Turkey a party to the Syrian war, opening up a Pandora’s Box of risky issues, such as the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a group which has traditionally possessed a significant infrastructure inside Syria....
Visiting towns in southern Turkey that have suffered from past PKK attacks, one can see this fear visibly, with the locals suggesting: “A Turkish intervention in Syria might just boomerang, ratcheting up PKK attacks.”
Add to this other concerns: Turkish troops on the ground could cost Ankara dearly, eroding the soft power it has painstakingly built in the Middle East in the past decade, and it becomes nearly certain that Turkey’s options in Syria are not without limits."

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