'With Western options severely limited in Syria, US diplomats were counting (on at least) rhetorical solidarity at the UN from Russia'

"...Pentagon contacts tell us that Panetta was ‘a little ahead of the game’ but that the US military is firmly planning for an exit from Afghanistan. The Republican presidential contenders continue to promise a longer engagement, but we believe it is highly unlikely whether they would follow through if elected. The exit strategy is now deeply embedded in US strategy and budgetary planning. Of more immediate salience, Iran is much in the news. The analytic challenge is to separate the unceasing media and political drum beat about the imminence of an attack on Iran – by Israel unilaterally or in conjunction with the US – from the underlying reality of official exchanges between the two countries. In our conversations with the White House and Pentagon, there is no missing the concern of officials about statements by Israeli defense minister Barak that Iran is entering a ‘zone of immunity’ after which its nuclear program will become invulnerable to air attack (a program US government agencies still contend, ended in 2003'!) Nonetheless, US officials still believe that the high-level warnings to Israel of the dangers of military action are holding the line – at least for the moment. Elsewhere, the downward spiral in Egypt is raising hackles on Capitol Hill where US aid for Egypt is coming under intense scrutiny. At the Pentagon and State Department by contrast attitudes are more relaxed. Military to military relation continue to be good, with US military officials working hard to persuade their counterparts in the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces to maintain a steady commitment to reform. On Syria, the main fall out is likely to be deepening suspicion of Russian diplomacy once Prime Minister Putin return to the presidency. With Western options severely limited in Syria, US diplomats were counting on rhetorical solidarity at the UN from Russia. That this has been so hard to obtain bodes ill for the future of relations with Moscow. A highlight of next week’s Washington agenda will be the visit of China’s expected next president Xi Jinping. A polite reception is to be expected but trade and human rights issues will be close to the surface.