"Ensuring Washington doesn’t make matters worse ..."

"... Yet the hawks do not make clear who would supply the arms, nor exactly who would receive them. Small arms, not heavy weapons, are now flowing from the Arabs and the Turks. Ask them and they’ll tell you that with more weapons, they foresee an all-out civil war, perhaps spilling into their countries. Assad would be deposed, but the price would be very high. Muddying the water further, there are lots of Syrian factions with widely divergent and conflicting views. Some want foreign arms and more; others don’t. Most haven’t given a clear thought to governing post-Assad.

Life after Assad probably would be more volatile than post–Hosni Mubarak Egypt. The Syrian political map is quite explosive: a potential rulership of Islamic extremists; Alawites like Assad who depend almost entirely on his rule; Christians who greatly fear the extremists for what they did to Christians in Iraq and Egypt; and good, solid Sunni businessmen who might not have the stomach for a battle. Nor can outsiders expect to control this ménage.

One idea advanced by interventionists deserves more attention: safe havens. The idea is to set up zones to which Syrians can flee for protection, say in Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey. The catch here is that advocates also call for no-fly zones patrolled probably by U.S. fighters in case Assad attacks the zones. More problematic still is that Syrian air-defense systems are first rate and would endanger U.S. fighters.

Americans can’t believe there aren’t great solutions, and it’s not for a lack of creativity. Salvation for the Syrians, however, may rest not in solving the problem with bold and rudderless fixes, but in ensuring Washington doesn’t make matters worse—for ourselves and others."