"Ditto nothing. Now they routinely support and supply Hezbollah & Hamas. They have our number!”

MEPGS; Excerpts; 

Despite multi-lateral moves to cut ties with Iran’s Central Bank in an effort to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons capability, many within the Administration do not believe that this will bring the Iranians back to the negotiating table. ...  many purchasers have begun to shy away from Iran in fear of running afoul of especially US authorities.

However, the question remains whether this unexpectedly harsh move by the west, unanticipated by Iran (or for that matter, even two months ago by many Congressional advocates of tougher sanctions) will be sufficient to alter Teheran’s rush to nuclear arms.  “[Economic] pressure won’t make them buckle,” flatly predicts one well-placed US official.  “For them, for the Supreme Leader (Ayotollah Khamenei) and his inner circle, it is `do or die’.”  Reinforcing this “predilection” are events around the region, including, most notably, the precarious position Iran’s ally, the regime of Bashar al-Assad, now faces.  Even more important is the view, US experts say, the Iranian leadership shares, that the US is not up to confronting Iran.  “They have our number,” says one State Department official.  “Their proxies went after our troops in Iraq and we did nothing.  “They were behind the terrorist attack on Khobar Towers [a housing complex in Saudi Arabia, where 19 American servicemen were killed].  Ditto nothing.  Now they routinely support and supply Hezbollah and Hamas.  They have our number.”

... ... Even in Israel, opinion is divided. Meir Dagan, the former head of the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service is on record against a military attack.  His argument and that of many top brass in Tel Aviv is that Israel lacks the capability to do sufficient damage to Iran’s program to risk the inevitable retaliation.  For some, covert operations can slow Iran’s nuclear progress and as the Arab Spring has shown, regimes can come under severe domestic strains overnight....  As one Iran expert puts it, “Don’t rule out domestic developments.  Just look at what happened throughout the region in 2011.”

Others point out that the series of international sanctions against Iran for pursuing its nuclear program have already achieved significant results.  As one analyst put it, “Our objectives are non-proliferation and regional balance.  We have shown there is going to be a high price for proliferation.  No more `free passes’ like India got.  We also have seen a coalescence of `players’ against Iran, led by Saudi Arabia. ...various parts of the Administration have differing `red lines’ but many US officials believe the Israeli red line is a functioning enrichment plant now being assembled near Qom. But the US and Israel insist that the recent decision to cancel joint military maneuvers was a signal that both countries wanted to stifle the drum beat of war.

Meanwhile, Iran’s erstwhile ally, Syria, is, in the view of a number of analysts, on the verge of civil war.  “We are in the last weeks for a peaceful transition,” says one such analyst.  “The Arab League’s mission to Syria was supposed to fail and did,” is the way one US official put it.  “And now they are back to doing nothing -- as usual.”  When the mission reports to Arab League leaders this Sunday, they are likely to issue an ambiguous report and ask for an extension of their mandate.  While the US and the Europeans, now mostly bystanders, had hoped the League would ask for the matter to be taken up by the UN Security Council, now Western diplomats hope that this course will be taken after another mission ends in expected futility.

Even if the matter gets to the UN, the Russians have made it clear they will veto any resolution that condemns the Syrian regime.  US officials are at a loss to fully explain Russia’s unconditional support for Syria.  Some point to the long standing Russian/Syrian partnership dating back to the days of the Soviet Union.  Others note the importance of Syrian ports to the Russian navy.  However, one veteran analyst argues that fear of an Islamist takeover is the prime motivation for Russian behavior. 

If Syria is the biggest crisis in the region, the biggest strategic threat remains the future of Egypt.  Many observers believe that political problems are the least of Egypt’s concerns.  The military has pledged to turn over control to an elected Parliament in six months.  This Parliament, which will be dominated by Islamists, nevertheless is seen by many in the Administration as not only representative of the Egyptian people but moderate and one willing to abide by international agreements.  More worrisome is the deteriorating economic situation.  With its foreign reserves depleted by half over the past year and Egypt unwilling to negotiate terms for a $20 billion package of outside assistance, many here worry severe economic turmoil is just around the corner.