"... Israel's message is now more guarded..... Such talk robs Israel of some of the element of surprise if it really is planning an assault on Iran. Could it instead be a loud reminder to the rest of the world of its problem with Iran in the hope that Washington or another power might intercede?
Interviews in recent months with government and military officials -- most speaking on condition of anonymity -- and independent experts suggest that Israel prefers caution over a unilateral strike against the Iranians....
Israelis have known for years that an attack on Iran would be much more difficult than their Iraq strike. Iran is larger, more distant and, perhaps because it learned the lessons of Iraq, has built numerous and well-fortified facilities. Taking these out would require a sustained campaign by the Israeli air force, which is more geared for precision strikes through the use of advanced technology.
"With Iran it's a different project. There is no one silver bullet (with which) you can hit," a senior Israeli defense official told Reuters, in a rare admission of his country's tactical and strategic limitations...."We have to learn that the situation is changing, the region is changing. Not everything that was possible before is possible now and new possibilities open up," said Dan Meridor, deputy prime minister in charge of Israel's nuclear and intelligence affairs...."This was something counter-intuitive for Israel, especially for the military. Israelis like to be on the attack, not on the defensive," Meridor said....
The most obvious example of Israel's shifting stance is its pioneering missile shield, which incorporates a network of radar-guided interceptors designed to shoot down everything from the ballistic Shehab and Scud missiles of Iran and Syria to the lower-flying, Katyusha-style rockets of Hezbollah and Palestinian guerrillas.... "Hermetic protection will be impossible," Colonel Zvika Haimovitch of the air defense corps told Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in a September 5 speech. "I assess that, in any conflict, rockets and missiles will fall here."
But others, including INSS scholar and retired Israeli general Shlomo Brom, argue for Israel's defensive posture to be expanded, and perhaps even for the secrecy to be eased around the country's own, reputed atomic arsenal. Aiming to avoid a regional arms race and skirt international anti-proliferation scrutiny, Israel currently neither confirms nor denies having the bomb.
"The answer is mutual deterrence, with the other side knowing the price it would pay for launching a nuclear strike -- mutual destruction," said Brom.
Israel did loose its jets on Syria in 2007, to destroy a desert installation that Washington later described as a nascent, North Korean-supplied atomic reactor. Damascus denied having such a facility and Israel has never formally taken responsibility for the raid. In his memoir, former U.S. President George W. Bush said Israel's prime minister at the time, Ehud Olmert, preferred the reticence "because he wanted to avoid anything that might back Syria into a corner and force (President Bashar) Assad to retaliate".
Former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney was not surprised that Israel went it alone. "I ... remembered 1981, when the Israelis had ignored world opinion and launched an air strike to destroy a nuclear reactor Saddam Hussein was building at Osirak in Iraq," Cheney wrote in his autobiography. "For the Syrians and the North Koreans ... the private message was clear -- Israel would not tolerate this threat."
But some argue the attack on Syria was designed to send a message to Iran.
"We noted a whole lot of Iranian interest in what happened in Syria -- trips by consultants, intense communication," said a one-time adviser to Olmert, breaking Israel's official silence around the episode.
By tackling Syria, Israel hoped to make the Iranians think twice about pursuing their nuclear program. To illustrate, the ex-adviser cited "Family Business", a 1989 crime drama in which a veteran jailbird, played by Sean Connery, counsels his grandson on how to survive prison: "You pick out a tough guy, kick his ass right away ... Word gets around, and it makes your time easier."
Of course, the Americans also took note. Visiting Israel last month, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta was asked by a reporter about the possibility that the 2007 sortie augured an Israeli attack on Iran. Panetta did not answer directly....
Israelis often question U.S. President Barack Obama's resolve in the Middle East. But even if he loses power in next year's presidential election to a more hawkish Republican, it may be too late for Israel, which predicted last January that Iran could have its first nuclear device in two years. That forecast was echoed by Britain.
"If they (Israel) feel they could achieve their objective, or at least initiate the kind of conflict that would meet their objective, through a one-off strike, that would be feasible," said Richard Kemp, a retired British army colonel who has studied Israeli strategy.
Israel's military does not comment on prospective operations. But many in Israel's defense establishment have gone out of their way to downplay the feasibility of a unilateral attack. Former Mossad spymaster Meir Dagan has repeatedly ridiculed the idea in briefings to Israeli reporters.
"Attacking the reactors from the air is a stupid idea that would have no advantage," he said in May. "A regional war would be liable to unfold, during which missiles would come in from Iran and from Hezbollah in Lebanon."..."
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